by Jacob Jones Hello all, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! Awards season has arrived as both major and minor studios vie for distribution rights from festival premieres and focuses shift toward a fairly unpredictable Oscar race. With the current awards field becoming simultaneously overcrowded and difficult to nail down in terms of finding front-runners for most major categories, sifting through what to watch out for and what not to worry about can be a daunting task to say the least, especially if (like me) you feel that there’s never enough time in the day to figure those things out organically by seeing everything you want to see. That’s where I come in. Over the next three to four months, a whole slew of new works – some from respected masters, some from audacious new talents – will be released to cap off the movie year as we prepare for one of the most unpredictable Oscar seasons in recent memory. This piece serves as both a directory of titles for those who may be interested in knowing more about the films most likely to be competing, as well as a guide to determine which categories these films best stand a chance of entering. This will be a two-part piece covering both the major and the minor contenders in the race, with the first publishing of our Early Oscar Nomination Predictions soon to follow. There’s still plenty of time for things to change (I’m not sure if anyone saw The Brutalist coming when this awards season was first being discussed), but for now, let’s survey the cinematic landscape ahead and explore what exactly the major contenders are. WHAT'S ALREADY HERE Dune: Part Two If there were one film above all others that has never wavered on its way to the finish line, it’s Denis Villeneuve’s second-half adaptation of Frank Herbert’s iconic sci-fi novel, Dune. Dune: Part Two was a powerhouse when it released to rapturous acclaim, and has showed no signs of slowing down at all as this year’s grand-scale blockbuster achievement. When one considers the immaculate craft, committed performances, brilliant storytelling, and the failures both critically and commercially of WB’s other major player this season (Joker: Folie À Deux), it’s no wonder the cultural foothold of Dune: Part Two has continued to stay so strong, making it by far the most obvious major contender across eleven different categories, even if some wins outside of the tech categories are unlikely to occur. One thing’s for sure though: with the brutal snub of Denis Villeneuve for Best Director in 2022 in favor of Kennth Branagh’s so-so work on Belfast, Oscar enthusiasts are waiting with their metaphorical pitchforks to make sure the Academy doesn’t make the same mistake twice, so it seems all but a certainty that a snub there will not occur. (Then again, this is the Academy we’re talking about.) Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Denis Villeneuve), Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Saturday Night Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night, which has now been released following its world premiere at Telluride (man, they had a good lineup this year), chronicles the opening night of NBC’s very first Saturday Night Live show. The trailer demonstrates just how chaotic and unpredictable the mounting of such an audacious production ended up being, though according to some pundits, those more familiar with the history of SNL may find the film lacking a bit. As an ensemble piece full of young stars about the history of a visual medium, however, the film has a strong chance to land some SAG attention, which could push it over the hill and into Best Picture territory, a sandbox with which Reitman is not unfamiliar. It’s doubtful that any acting nods will come out of it, but to put a movie like this together, Editing and Screenplay are far from out of the question, apart from the question of which Screenplay category the Academy decides the film belongs to. You can read my full review here. Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score Sing Sing The unfortunate reality of the race’s current state is that as soon as A24 picked up The Brutalist, its other fall and winter releases (sans the horror films) seemed to fall almost entirely by the wayside in terms of marketing. Sure, Queer and Babygirl are still coming out, and are well-positioned to get some awards love of their own outside of most major categories, but the bulk of the campaigning from A24 seems to have fallen in line behind Brady Corbet’s great American epic. Despite this, however, and despite one of the more confusing release strategies for an A24 summer movie in recent memory, Sing Sing is still positioned by most pundits to take up a decent amount of space come Oscar nomination time, and in my opinion, it would fully deserve everything it’s given. It’s not only the year’s best movie so far, but one of the only real challengers to Dune: Part Two in terms of relative certainty in competition. You can read my full review here. Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Actor (Colman Domingo), Best Supporting Actor (Clarence Maclin), Best Film Editing, Best Adapted Screenplay WHAT'S TO COME Anora Winner of the Palme d’Or at perhaps the most prestigious film festival on the main circuit (it competes with Venice on that), Anora comes to us from director Sean Baker, and stars Mikey Madison as the titular character, a sex worker who gets married to the son of a wealthy Russian oligarch. NEON picked up U.S. distribution for the film, and considering the immensely positive word of mouth surrounding the project, as well as the fact that NEON has won the coveted Palme d’Or five years in a row now, with three of those wins translating to Best Picture nominations at the Oscars, this seems like one of the more “no-brainer” type of contenders, even with its limited and worldwide public release dates still weeks away. Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Sean Baker), Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Film Editing, Best Original Screenplay Blitz This is where things start to get a little more complicated. Steve McQueen’s Blitz, which will be released in limited theaters on November 1 leading up to its nationwide debut on AppleTV+ three weeks later, has been the big question of awards season ever since news of its production broke. For a long while, it was unclear whether it would ever make a fall/winter release date, or have to be pushed into 2025 due to the SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes. It was also unclear just which categories its starts would compete for, as Saoirse Ronan prepares to mount a comeback to the awards field with this film and The Outrun. Would she be lead or supporting? How prevalent is Harris Dickinson in the movie? Does it look like a strong contender in the tech categories? These were all questions that, until the trailer released, had inconclusive answers. Few people have seen the film as yet, but with the film’s London Film Festival premiere having now occurred, things do appear to be looking favorable, though not everyone's praises appear to be as gargantuan as the film might need to be win-competitive. Of course, there is also the looming shadow of the Academy’s complete shut-out of McQueen’s previous theatrical feature, Widows. McQueen’s Small Axe limited series, which was essentially five short films that debuted on Prime Video, was warmly received by critics, but due to the confusing categorization of the project relegated it to Emmy contention instead of Oscar glory. Widows, on the other hand, was a straightforward crime thriller, and received no acclaim at all, apart from positive reviews. When taking all of this under advisement, it seems that the Academy’s love for WWII-set films, as well as the talent involved, is what’s most likely to give Blitz the boost it needs to become more than just a craft category staple. Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Steve McQueen), Best Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design The Brutalist If you’ve stepped onto film twitter over the last several weeks even once, you’ve likely heard raves from every direction about Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist, which is being dubbed a new American epic by pretty much everyone who’s seen it, in part due to its lengthy runtime which features an intermission, and in part due to its apparent high qualities of craft and storytelling. Every reaction and review to come out of a screening of the film regards Adrian Brody’s work as some of the best – if not the best – of his career, while pundits also single out Guy Pearce for shining in a supporting part, as well as Felicity Jones, who plays Brody’s wife as – according to IMDB – the two “flee post-war Europe in 1947 to rebuild their legacy and witness the birth of modern America.” Many thought NEON would jump at the chance to have another major contender in the mix, and I’m sure they put up a pretty penny, but A24 holds distribution rights and has set the film for a limited December 20 release, with an expansion coming in 2025, likely in January. There’s something to be said for the studio spreading their awards campaigns too thin, but if any of A24’s acquisitions appear to be the most muscular in terms of awards competition, it's this one, especially since comparisons have already been made to Once Upon a Time in America and There Will Be Blood, two of the great American epics of all time. Could The Brutalist join those ranks? We’ll have to wait and find out. Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Brady Corbet), Best Actor (Adrian Brody), Best Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), Best Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones), Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, Best Original Screenplay, Best Sound A Complete Unknown Regardless of how one feels about James Mangold’s unusual miss in helming Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, there’s no denying the director’s immense talents, which has seen him put out more hits than misses in the course of his overall directing career. Now, he’s set his sights on Bob Dylan, a subject who’s no stranger to the cinematic landscape. What remains to be seen is whether or not Mangold’s take on the famed musician can stand out enough to rise above other fare covering the same subject, including Todd Haynes’ I’m Not There, which saw Cate Blanchett play Dylan, and no less than two separate Martin Scorsese documentaries, one of which can be found in the prestigious Criterion Collection. Mangold has a good team with him on this – largely the same that made Ford v Ferrari back in 2019 – and with a Christmas Day release date, it seems likely that this is the big play for Searchlight Pictures this season. Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Actor (Timothee Chalamet), Best Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Best Cinematography, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Sound Conclave Though it’s unlikely to achieve front-runner status in the Best Picture category, Conclave – which comes to us from All Quiet on the Western Front helmer Edward Berger adapting the Robert Harris novel of the same name – has been one of the race’s most certain contenders since it premiered at Telluride in August. Many pundits have tapped both Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci for Oscar contention in the Lead and Supporting Actor categories, and some have even gone so far as to include Isabelle Rossellini among the mix for Supporting Actress despite her apparently not being in very much of the film (one might call this “the Judi Dench effect”). Whether Berger himself holds enough capital with the Academy in such a competitive director year is anyone’s guess, but it would hardly be a surprise to see him slide into that fourth or fifth spot next to the year’s three most obvious candidates (Sean Baker, Brady Corbet, Denis Villeneuve). Focus Features, who is distributing the project, has already moved up the film’s release from November 1 to October 25, likely to give it some distance from the upcoming U.S. Presidential election given the film’s subject matter, so we’ll see soon just how strong a candidate it’s likely to be. According to book readers, the politics of the story’s finale may sour some voters on its winning more major categories (I’ll find out myself when I finish the book, hopefully before the film’s release). Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Edward Berger), Best Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Best Supporting Actor (Stanley Tucci), Best Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Adapted Screenplay Emilia Pérez Without a major domestic awards player this season, Netflix has gone international (as it has in years past, the most famous of which being Roma), opting to become the home of Jacques Audiard’s audacious trans Mexican drug lord musical, Emilia Pérez, which won both the Cannes Jury Prize for its director as well as a four-way split for Best Actress between Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez, and Adriana Paz. The former two actresses are widely expected to be competitive in both the Lead and Supporting Actress category (Gascón in Lead, Saldaña in Supporting), with the latter of those two widely speculated to be win-competitive. The trailers have not given much to viewers in the way of plot, so its chances of winning Picture seem slim at best, but a nomination is likely, and many pundits have the film tapped to compete in a few below-the-line categories as well, especially since France wisely selected it as their submission for International Feature, a mistake they made last season by opting out of selecting eventual six-time nominee Anatomy of a Fall. The film opens in select theaters on November 1 before dropped on Netflix November 13, so it won’t be long to wait now before viewers are able to decipher for themselves just how competitive it really is, and given the musical genre’s recent struggles at the box office, a streaming home might be just what it needs to entice reluctant would-be patrons. Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Jacques Audiard), Best Actress (Karla Sofía Gascón), Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), Best International Feature, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Sound Gladiator II For my money, one of the biggest questions this Oscar season is whether or not multiple sequels will make it into the Best Picture field. It’s not an unheard of prospect – only two years ago both Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick competed for the top prize (which would eventually go to Everything Everywhere All at Once) – but that was also the first time in Oscars history that such a thing has ever occurred. When it comes to this year, the big question mark hovers over Ridley Scott’s hotly anticipated Gladiator II, which sees former Oscar nominee Paul Mescal (Aftersun) in the lead part after Russell Crowe’s Maximus tragically perished at the end of the original film, which won Best Picture in 2001 (2000 being the competition year). First reactions to the film, which dropped following its first screening on October 18, praise it as perhaps Scott’s best since Black Hawk Down, with nearly everyone singling out both its audacious production values and Denzel Washington’s performance, an apparent front-line contender in the Supporting Actor race (some have even pegged it as win-competitive). That sounds like a recipe for enormous awards success, provided it hits with the right audiences, and if its projected box office opening – which it’s set to pull off against Universal Studios’ Wicked – is anything to go by, there will be a lot of audiences for it to hit. Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Actor (Paul Mescal), Best Supporting Actor (Denzel Washington), Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Maria Pablo Larraín’s recent output of biopics about complicated famous women and the public’s relationship to their personas has been a consistent staple in the Oscars race for each year in which they’ve been released. Both Jackie and Spencer managed to score Lead Actress nominations for Natalie Portman and Kristen Stewart respectively, with the former also scoring nods for Original Score and Costume Design. This season looks to be another repeat success for the Chilean filmmaker, as Larraín is poised to go three for three in the Lead Actress category, this year’s nominee being Angelina Jolie, who plays renowned American-Greek soprano Maria Callas. Those who have seen the film rave about Jolie’s performance, with many citing this as the best of Larraín’s leading lady performances to date. The film is also expected to contend in other below-the-line categories, though its critical appraisal – as of this writing – may keep it from reaching the necessary heights required to attain other above-the-line category nods. Best Chances: Best Actress (Angelina Jolie), Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design Nickel Boys Another Telluride premiere turned Oscar hopeful, Nickel Boys is based on the Pulitzer Prize-Winning novel of the same name by Colson Whitehead. Early reactions to the film have raved about its bravery, daring cinematography, and devastating emotional core. Having not yet read the book (and, of course, not having not seen the film), I can’t speak to just how emotional the story gets, nor its production qualities, but it is expected to be a strong Oscar contender nonetheless. In fact, director RaMell Ross currently sits in my number 5 spot in Best Director predictions, given how the Academy does like to surprise with an unexpected name (or lack thereof) in that category. The film is set for mid-December release in New York and Los Angeles prior to a likely outward expansion over the winter months. Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (RaMell Ross), Best Cinematography, Best Adapted Screenplay Nosferatu Until the most recent trailer was released for Robert Eggers’ upcoming take on the titular vampire horror story, many Oscar pundits (including me) may have assumed that the furthest it could reach would be a Best Cinematography nomination. After all, The Lighthouse is Eggers’ only film to not be completely shut out by the Academy come nomination time, and it was in the Cinematography category that it found its singular point of praise. In fact, this film was not originally included on this list. However, once viewing the trailer, Cinematography became all but a certainty; the question now becomes not “can Nosferatu score any nominations,” but “how many more nominations can it score?” As a remake of one of the most iconic silent era classics, it’s sure to enthuse many a cinephile from within the Academy’s ranks, and with Robert Eggers’ star only rising every time he puts out a movie, this could be their chance to reward him for nearly a decade of visionary filmmaking. Best Chances: Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling Queer With Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers remaining conversationally relevant in terms of the best movies of 2024 to date, it’s tough to tell whether the director’s upcoming Queer, starring Daniel Craig and Drew Starkey, will hold enough sway with the Academy to ultimately make a stronger dent, or if the former is the stronger bid for Picture contention. Early reactions from the film out of Venice suggested that it may be too unwieldy for some fans, whereas others praised just how strange it was. In any case, not one of those reactions suggested that Daniel Craig would be dropping out of the Best Actor race, and the film – which is adapted from the William S. Boroughs’ novel of the same name – still holds strong odds in Adapted Screenplay. Personally, I’m always interested to see what Luca Guadagnino is up to, so I’ll be seeing it either way. Whether the Academy will like what they see enough for a real push is anyone’s guess. Best Chances: Best Actor (Daniel Craig), Best Supporting Actor (Drew Starkey), Best Adapted Screenplay A Real Pain Searchlight Pictures’ other contender this awards season is Jesse Eisenberg’s writer/director project, A Real Pain, in which the actor plays David Kaplan, who embarks on a guided tour through Poland with his cousin Benji (Kieran Culkin) following the death of Benji’s grandmother. While critical reception of the film itself has been on the mixed-positive side, Culkin’s performance is one of the two strongest contenders right now for a Supporting Actor win, and that tenth spot in Best Picture could mean the film has an opening to fight for amongst the pack, depending on whether or not it hits properly with audiences when it releases on November 1. It certainly is likely to land (and perhaps be win-competitive) in Original Screenplay as well, especially with a slightly less crowded field than Adapted, and I’ve got a personal sneaking suspicion that if it does well, Culkin and the script won’t be the only nominations it can muster. Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin), Best Original Screenplay Wicked While nomination counts may ultimately appear lower in the major categories, there’s no denying the box office juggernaut Universal Studios has on their hands with Wicked, which adapts the first half of the Broadway musical phenomenon by the same name. Pre-sales for the film are already sky high, and many pundits believe there are a few of the larger tech categories in which it could be win-competitive. Such a large production – with a Thanksgiving release no less, opening against Gladiator II – requires some impressive production quality to pull off, and although the color grading in the trailers has left some cinephiles wanting, the design work itself appears to have leaned into the audacious nature of such a production. The reveal of the soundtrack’s song list indicated that there would be no original music included in this half of the Wicked story, so Best Original Song is definitively not happening, but a surprise Sound nomination could be in the cards if it truly blows viewers away. We’ll be able to sniff out whether Universal’s bid to campaign its two stars, Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, for Lead and Supporting Actress bears any weight with the Academy once people have had a chance to see the film, but for the time being, expect it to at least show up in all major design categories. Best Chances: Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling And that’s it for the major contenders for this year’s Oscars season. Have you seen any of these films? Was I right on the money or way off on some? Let me know in the comments below, and thanks for reading! Stay tuned for the minor contenders, coming soon!
- The Friendly Film Fan
1 Comment
Julie
10/22/2024 02:26:55 pm
I always find your Awards Previews so informative. I will be looking for part 2!
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AuthorFilm critic in my free time. Film enthusiast in my down time. Categories
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