​Greetings all, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! In our last Oscars piece, we went over all this season’s major Oscar contenders, but they are not the only films vying for gold this season. There are still plenty of films outside of the major contenders that have a solid chance at sneaking into some nomination fields, whether below-the-line or above, the only differences being they’re unlikely to be competitive across a wide spectrum of Oscar categories, or they’re simply not as big of releases as those discussed in the other piece. As with last time, this is not a fully comprehensive list of everything competing for Oscar glory, but more of a guide as to where things could be heading. There’s still plenty of time for momentums to rise and drop, category shifts to take place, and things to change dramatically throughout the awards season regarding what constitutes a major or minor contender. With all that said, let’s dive right in. Here are this season’s minor Oscar contenders!

The Apprentice
​
Despite having released nationwide over the October 11 weekend, it’s still unclear just how strong this Donald Trump/Roy Cohn biopic really is in terms of awards contention. For my own part, I found it to be tremendously entertaining, buoyed by two fantastic central performances from Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong. Stan is the most obvious contender here, having played the former President immaculately (and as unfortunate as it is, it’s more likely that the Academy nominates him for this than for his career-best turn in A Different Man), but with such an uncertain race ahead in the Supporting Actor category, don’t be surprised if Strong slips in as well. After all, the film hinges on the idea that Roy Cohn was at least partially – if not entirely – responsible for creating Donald Trump as we know him today, so if voters feel that nominating the lead actor also means connecting that nomination to the supporting part the performance bounces off of, it would be entirely likely that Strong lands that coveted 5th spot. The Academy also loves subtle makeup effects, particularly in biopics, so an Apprentice appearance in that category shouldn’t shock anyone, were it to happen.
 
Best Chances: Best Actor (Sebastian Stan), Best Supporting Actor (Jeremy Strong), Best Makeup & Hairstyling

​Civil War
 
Alex Garland’s Civil War – divisive as it was upon release – was a barn-burner for A24, becoming their second-highest-grossing film to date (only behind Everything Everywhere All at Once), and stayed in theaters for a good while. The studio’s gambit to open themselves up to more I.P. and spectacle-driven storytelling only has this one success story thus far, but it’s an undeniable success. To that end, while the film is unlikely to compete above-the-line, there are at least two tech categories in which it stands a fighting chance. Chief among these categories is Best Sound, which – regardless of how one feels about the narrative or pacing thereof – remains the film’s standout element by a wide margin. The whiz of sniper bullets, the sharpness of the gunfire, the ferocity of every explosion follows the viewer everywhere, especially during the film’s masterfully-crafted third act raid on Washington D.C. One other category, however, that awards enthusiasts may not be considering hard enough is Best Visual Effects. As 2019 showed us with 1917’s win in the category, war films can contain a great deal more visual effects than one might expect, and it’s the seamless blending of these effects that the Academy pays attention to. That said, Civil War would still face a tough uphill battle in that department, so if you’re set on just giving it one shot, Sound should be it. You can read my full review here.
 
Best Chances: Best Visual Effects, Best Sound

​Didi
 
It’s a real shame this Sundance darling about a young Vietnamese boy named Wang-Wang growing up through the dawn of the digital age doesn’t have as large of an awards reputation as some of its contemporaries in the genre, but then again, Bo Burnham’s near-perfect Eighth Grade may be its closest contemporary, and that didn’t get any awards love either. Didi’s one and only hope – apart from a miracle break into the original Screenplay category – is in Joan Chen’s endearing turn as the lead character’s mother. Chen is genuinely fantastic in the film, anchoring all of Wang-Wang’s anxiety with a steely vulnerability, and a well-deserved nomination in Best Supporting Actress is not out of the question as a surprise spoiler in the category. Unfortunately, with all of Focus Features’ awards attention fixed on Conclave, it’s highly unlikely for that spoiler to gain enough momentum by the time nominations are announced.
 
Best Chances: Best Supporting Actress (Joan Chen)

​A Different Man
 
As mentioned above, most of Sebastian Stan’s award attention is likely to be focused on The Apprentice for obvious reasons, but in my not-so-humble opinion, if he is to land a Best Actor nomination, it should be for this performance instead. A Different Man is an incredible look at the idea of self-hatred, internal insecurities, and identity that rests almost entirely on the shoulders of Stan’s towering turn, but also happens to feature Adam Pearson as one of the film’s funniest characters. While the script may be darkly comic and unendingly clever though, the limited amount of collective watch time amongst audiences and Academy voters (plus the crowded fields in both Screenplay categories and most other above-the-line slots for which it would have competed) likely means that beyond the Makeup & Hairstyling category, it basically only has one other shot, if A24 and Stan want to campaign for his performance.
 
Best Chances: Best Makeup & Hairstyling

​Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
 
In case any of you were wondering, no, I will not be forgiving everyone who let this movie go DOA and flop so hard at the box office that director George Miller had to pull back on his certainty that he would be doing another Mad Max movie at all. There simply is no one better at making this kind of movie than him, and it will be a black mark on all movie-goers if he dies being taken for granted as a director. Furiosa is no Fury Road, to be sure, but to even make a post-apocalyptic revenge epic this well more than deserves all the praise anyone could throw at it. Fury Road took home 6 Oscars (all in tech categories) the year that it competed, so it’s not out of the question that some of those techs could repeat nominations as long as the movie is shown to Academy members in time for voting. Here’s hoping. You can read my full review here.
 
Best Chances: Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Sound

​Joker: Folie À Deux
 
My oh my, how the mighty have fallen. Joker: Folie À Deux certainly has its defenders – even I admired Todd Phillips’ “screw your fantasy sequel” approach to putting it out there – but there’s no denying the film just doesn’t work, buried underneath layers of poorly-staged musical covers and lacking the conviction that comes with being allowed to rip off two of Scorsese’s best works. This was meant to be Warner Bros’ big fall season awards push; now, the studio could consider themselves lucky to land a few tech nominations. What happened?! Well, apart from the film’s myriad of issues like a repetitive narrative, lack of development for most non-Joker characters, and twist ending that essentially means the film before it meant nothing, it also didn’t make any money. Box office isn’t necessarily an indicator of awards consideration, but having a sequel to one of your most successful movies of all time flop, and having your star drop out of an upcoming Todd Haynes film just days before shooting, thus ruining his nomination chances for the same part he won Best Actor for last time, burns a lot of good will the movie may otherwise have kept even with the drop in quality. As it stands, Folie À Deux still has the slimmest of chances to repeat some of its old techs, but don’t expect it to go any further than that. You can read my full review here.
 
Best Chances: Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling

The Substance
 
Something is happening with The Substance amongst awards pundits, who seem to consider the film stronger than ever as awards season is in full swing and Oscar voting approaches. Many have still kept it out of the above-the-categories (save for one), but even with the Academy’s understood bias against the horror genre, the momentum for it seems to only be building, especially where it concerns the towering Demi Moore performance at its center. Personally, I doubt that it competes in many categories apart from the obvious due to that Academy bias, but if this thing somehow lands a Best Picture nomination, I will be shocked and delighted. You can read my full review here.
 
Best Chances: Best Actress (Demi Moore), Best Makeup & Hairstyling

​Hard Truths
 
Each year in one of the acting categories and in the screenplay category, there’s always one wildcard selection that has the potential to throw every would-be 5-for-5 predictions list out the window. This year, that’s Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, a film containing a Marianne Jean-Baptiste performance every critic who’s seen the film raves about. It’s not hard to imagine Jean-Baptiste as an included fifth contestant, especially if the Academy refuses to nominate Demi Moore, and Mike Leigh is beloved enough by movie enthusiasts that there’s some good will towards his landing a nomination for an original script, regardless of how far the film could go after those considerations. This early in the race, it’s too difficult to tell how certain these nominations would be, but if the potential for dark horse candidates is in play, so is the dark horse movie of this season.
 
Best Chances: Best Actress (Marianne Jean-Baptiste), Best Original Screenplay

​Nightbitch
 
Following a disastrously bad first trailer, Marielle Heller’s adaptation of Nightbitch received mixed-positive reviews, with many pundits singling out Amy Adams starring turn as mother who thinks she’s turning into a dog as proof that she’s still got it. Coming off a historically bad run following her Best Actress snub in 2016 for Arrival, this movie could be seen as a comeback vehicle for Adams, even if it’s unlikely to appear anywhere else that matters. We’ll find out when the film hits theaters on December 6 just how competitive Adams is likely to be, if at all.
 
Best Chances: Best Actress (Amy Adams)

​The Piano Lesson
 
August Wilson adaptations have done well at the Oscars in the past, with both Fences and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom racking up nominations above-the-line left and right, although the latter did miss out on Picture and Director. Both received Adapted Screenplay nominations, and both had their lead and supporting performances recognized by the Academy, so it stands to reason that The Piano Lesson won’t be much different except with respect to the fact that John David Washington, who leads this movie, may not be able to crack this crowded of a Best Actor field, and Samuel L. Jackson – whom many pundits originally predicted to win the Best Supporting Actor category – apparently isn’t in the movie very much. That said, everyone who’s seen the movie thus far has raved about Ray Fisher’s performance, so Best Supporting Actor could still happen, and almost all of them also have Danielle Deadwyler’s supporting turn – as well as the screenplay – still locked into a nomination position, with the latter looking the most wobbly if something else were to take its place. The film is being put out by Netflix, which is also platforming Emilia Pérez and Maria this season, so it’s entirely likely that some of the larger categories don’t feature it as heavily.
 
Best Chances: Best Supporting Actress (Danielle Deadwyler), Best Supporting Actor (Ray Fisher), Best Adapted Screenplay

The Room Next Door
 
Pedro Almodóvar’s first English-language film has received a bit of a mixed reception from those who have seen it, with many citing the magic he’s able to conjure in the Spanish language not translating correctly to English, leaving the script feeling clunkier than it’s likely meant to. That said, it does still have many defenders, including people who still believe it has a chance to make its mark in Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Actress with Tilda Swinton, even if a Supporting bid for her would have worked out better for a competitive win. Stars Julianne Moore and Swinton are both campaigning in Lead Actress, but given Swinton is the one everyone talks about regarding this film, it’s most likely the nod goes to her or neither, leaving a more dark horse candidate to fill up that fifth spot. Both Pain and Glory and Parallel Mothers, Almodóvar’s last two films, managed to score some surprise nominations along the way, so we’ll see if that streak of surprises continues here.
 
Best Chances: Best Actress (Tilda Swinton), Best Adapted Screenplay

​The Seed of the Sacred Fig
 
A thriller apparently made in secret in Iran, Mohammed Rasoulof’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig has been burning up the minds of those who’ve seen it ever since it debuted at the Cannes Film Festival in May of this year. The film is Germany’s official selection for the International Feature Oscar race, but also seems to be nomination-competitive in at least one other category (Original Screenplay), and some are predicting it to break into Picture and Director as well. I’ll have to see the movie myself before I consider adding it to my predictions in those latter two categories, but International Feature is all but a certainty, and Original Screenplay is very much in play, so don’t count it out of your predictions just yet.  
 
Best Chances: Best International Feature, Best Original Screenplay

​September 5
 
A film about the Israeli hostage crisis at the 1972 Munich Olympics, September 5 is told entirely from the perspective of the ABC newsroom who covered the story at the time. Bottle movies about journalism tend to fare well with the Academy, in at least the Editing category, and the studio is campaigning its cast for Supporting considerations given the ensemble nature of the piece, Peter Sarsgaard being the most obvious contender amongst the group. The predictions betting site GoldDerby has listed September 5 amongst its ten predicted nominations for Best Picture, but without having seen the film, and with much of the awards release slate still to come, the lack of certainty surrounding such a prediction is why I’m hesitant to throw it that bone just yet. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it sneak into the #10 spot, especially with such a wide-open Best Picture race only seeming to be getting wider.
 
Best Chances: Best Supporting Actor (Peter Sarsgaard), Best Film Editing 

And with that, we’ve covered most (if not all) of the major and minor Oscar contenders this awards season! Which of these films are you looking forward to the most? Do you foresee any of these minor contenders making the switch to major? Let me know in the comments below, and thanks for reading!
 
- The Friendly Film Fan

​Hello all, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! Awards season has arrived as both major and minor studios vie for distribution rights from festival premieres and focuses shift toward a fairly unpredictable Oscar race. With the current awards field becoming simultaneously overcrowded and difficult to nail down in terms of finding front-runners for most major categories, sifting through what to watch out for and what not to worry about can be a daunting task to say the least, especially if (like me) you feel that there’s never enough time in the day to figure those things out organically by seeing everything you want to see. That’s where I come in.
 
Over the next three to four months, a whole slew of new works – some from respected masters, some from audacious new talents – will be released to cap off the movie year as we prepare for one of the most unpredictable Oscar seasons in recent memory. This piece serves as both a directory of titles for those who may be interested in knowing more about the films most likely to be competing, as well as a guide to determine which categories these films best stand a chance of entering. This will be a two-part piece covering both the major and the minor contenders in the race, with the first publishing of our Early Oscar Nomination Predictions soon to follow. There’s still plenty of time for things to change (I’m not sure if anyone saw The Brutalist coming when this awards season was first being discussed), but for now, let’s survey the cinematic landscape ahead and explore what exactly the major contenders are.

Dune: Part Two
​
If there were one film above all others that has never wavered on its way to the finish line, it’s Denis Villeneuve’s second-half adaptation of Frank Herbert’s iconic sci-fi novel, Dune. Dune: Part Two was a powerhouse when it released to rapturous acclaim, and has showed no signs of slowing down at all as this year’s grand-scale blockbuster achievement. When one considers the immaculate craft, committed performances, brilliant storytelling, and the failures both critically and commercially of WB’s other major player this season (Joker: Folie À Deux), it’s no wonder the cultural foothold of Dune: Part Two has continued to stay so strong, making it by far the most obvious major contender across eleven different categories, even if some wins outside of the tech categories are unlikely to occur. One thing’s for sure though: with the brutal snub of Denis Villeneuve for Best Director in 2022 in favor of Kennth Branagh’s so-so work on Belfast, Oscar enthusiasts are waiting with their metaphorical pitchforks to make sure the Academy doesn’t make the same mistake twice, so it seems all but a certainty that a snub there will not occur. (Then again, this is the Academy we’re talking about.)

Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Denis Villeneuve), Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound

​​Saturday Night
 
Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night, which has now been released following its world premiere at Telluride (man, they had a good lineup this year), chronicles the opening night of NBC’s very first Saturday Night Live show. The trailer demonstrates just how chaotic and unpredictable the mounting of such an audacious production ended up being, though according to some pundits, those more familiar with the history of SNL may find the film lacking a bit. As an ensemble piece full of young stars about the history of a visual medium, however, the film has a strong chance to land some SAG attention, which could push it over the hill and into Best Picture territory, a sandbox with which Reitman is not unfamiliar. It’s doubtful that any acting nods will come out of it, but to put a movie like this together, Editing and Screenplay are far from out of the question, apart from the question of which Screenplay category the Academy decides the film belongs to. You can read my full review here.
 
Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score

​Sing Sing
 
The unfortunate reality of the race’s current state is that as soon as A24 picked up The Brutalist, its other fall and winter releases (sans the horror films) seemed to fall almost entirely by the wayside in terms of marketing. Sure, Queer and Babygirl are still coming out, and are well-positioned to get some awards love of their own outside of most major categories, but the bulk of the campaigning from A24 seems to have fallen in line behind Brady Corbet’s great American epic. Despite this, however, and despite one of the more confusing release strategies for an A24 summer movie in recent memory, Sing Sing is still positioned by most pundits to take up a decent amount of space come Oscar nomination time, and in my opinion, it would fully deserve everything it’s given. It’s not only the year’s best movie so far, but one of the only real challengers to Dune: Part Two in terms of relative certainty in competition. You can read my full review here.
 
Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Actor (Colman Domingo), Best Supporting Actor (Clarence Maclin), Best Film Editing, Best Adapted Screenplay

​Anora
 
Winner of the Palme d’Or at perhaps the most prestigious film festival on the main circuit (it competes with Venice on that), Anora comes to us from director Sean Baker, and stars Mikey Madison as the titular character, a sex worker who gets married to the son of a wealthy Russian oligarch. NEON picked up U.S. distribution for the film, and considering the immensely positive word of mouth surrounding the project, as well as the fact that NEON has won the coveted Palme d’Or five years in a row now, with three of those wins translating to Best Picture nominations at the Oscars, this seems like one of the more “no-brainer” type of contenders, even with its limited and worldwide public release dates still weeks away.
 
Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Sean Baker), Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Film Editing, Best Original Screenplay

​Blitz
 
This is where things start to get a little more complicated. Steve McQueen’s Blitz, which will be released in limited theaters on November 1 leading up to its nationwide debut on AppleTV+ three weeks later, has been the big question of awards season ever since news of its production broke. For a long while, it was unclear whether it would ever make a fall/winter release date, or have to be pushed into 2025 due to the SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes. It was also unclear just which categories its starts would compete for, as Saoirse Ronan prepares to mount a comeback to the awards field with this film and The Outrun. Would she be lead or supporting? How prevalent is Harris Dickinson in the movie? Does it look like a strong contender in the tech categories? These were all questions that, until the trailer released, had inconclusive answers. Few people have seen the film as yet, but with the film’s London Film Festival premiere having now occurred, things do appear to be looking favorable, though not everyone's praises appear to be as gargantuan as the film might need to be win-competitive. Of course, there is also the looming shadow of the Academy’s complete shut-out of McQueen’s previous theatrical feature, Widows. McQueen’s Small Axe limited series, which was essentially five short films that debuted on Prime Video, was warmly received by critics, but due to the confusing categorization of the project relegated it to Emmy contention instead of Oscar glory. Widows, on the other hand, was a straightforward crime thriller, and received no acclaim at all, apart from positive reviews. When taking all of this under advisement, it seems that the Academy’s love for WWII-set films, as well as the talent involved, is what’s most likely to give Blitz the boost it needs to become more than just a craft category staple.
 
Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Steve McQueen), Best Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design

​The Brutalist
 
If you’ve stepped onto film twitter over the last several weeks even once, you’ve likely heard raves from every direction about Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist, which is being dubbed a new American epic by pretty much everyone who’s seen it, in part due to its lengthy runtime which features an intermission, and in part due to its apparent high qualities of craft and storytelling. Every reaction and review to come out of a screening of the film regards Adrian Brody’s work as some of the best – if not the best – of his career, while pundits also single out Guy Pearce for shining in a supporting part, as well as Felicity Jones, who plays Brody’s wife as – according to IMDB – the two “flee post-war Europe in 1947 to rebuild their legacy and witness the birth of modern America.” Many thought NEON would jump at the chance to have another major contender in the mix, and I’m sure they put up a pretty penny, but A24 holds distribution rights and has set the film for a limited December 20 release, with an expansion coming in 2025, likely in January. There’s something to be said for the studio spreading their awards campaigns too thin, but if any of A24’s acquisitions appear to be the most muscular in terms of awards competition, it's this one, especially since comparisons have already been made to Once Upon a Time in America and There Will Be Blood, two of the great American epics of all time. Could The Brutalist join those ranks? We’ll have to wait and find out.
 
Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Brady Corbet), Best Actor (Adrian Brody), Best Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), Best Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones), Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, Best Original Screenplay, Best Sound

​A Complete Unknown
 
Regardless of how one feels about James Mangold’s unusual miss in helming Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, there’s no denying the director’s immense talents, which has seen him put out more hits than misses in the course of his overall directing career. Now, he’s set his sights on Bob Dylan, a subject who’s no stranger to the cinematic landscape. What remains to be seen is whether or not Mangold’s take on the famed musician can stand out enough to rise above other fare covering the same subject, including Todd Haynes’ I’m Not There, which saw Cate Blanchett play Dylan, and no less than two separate Martin Scorsese documentaries, one of which can be found in the prestigious Criterion Collection. Mangold has a good team with him on this – largely the same that made Ford v Ferrari back in 2019 – and with a Christmas Day release date, it seems likely that this is the big play for Searchlight Pictures this season.
 
Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Actor (Timothee Chalamet), Best Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Best Cinematography, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Sound

​Conclave
 
Though it’s unlikely to achieve front-runner status in the Best Picture category, Conclave – which comes to us from All Quiet on the Western Front helmer Edward Berger adapting the Robert Harris novel of the same name – has been one of the race’s most certain contenders since it premiered at Telluride in August. Many pundits have tapped both Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci for Oscar contention in the Lead and Supporting Actor categories, and some have even gone so far as to include Isabelle Rossellini among the mix for Supporting Actress despite her apparently not being in very much of the film (one might call this “the Judi Dench effect”). Whether Berger himself holds enough capital with the Academy in such a competitive director year is anyone’s guess, but it would hardly be a surprise to see him slide into that fourth or fifth spot next to the year’s three most obvious candidates (Sean Baker, Brady Corbet, Denis Villeneuve). Focus Features, who is distributing the project, has already moved up the film’s release from November 1 to October 25, likely to give it some distance from the upcoming U.S. Presidential election given the film’s subject matter, so we’ll see soon just how strong a candidate it’s likely to be. According to book readers, the politics of the story’s finale may sour some voters on its winning more major categories (I’ll find out myself when I finish the book, hopefully before the film’s release).

Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Edward Berger), Best Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Best Supporting Actor (Stanley Tucci), Best Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Adapted Screenplay

Emilia Pérez
 
Without a major domestic awards player this season, Netflix has gone international (as it has in years past, the most famous of which being Roma), opting to become the home of Jacques Audiard’s audacious trans Mexican drug lord musical, Emilia Pérez, which won both the Cannes Jury Prize for its director as well as a four-way split for Best Actress between Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez, and Adriana Paz. The former two actresses are widely expected to be competitive in both the Lead and Supporting Actress category (Gascón in Lead, Saldaña in Supporting), with the latter of those two widely speculated to be win-competitive. The trailers have not given much to viewers in the way of plot, so its chances of winning Picture seem slim at best, but a nomination is likely, and many pundits have the film tapped to compete in a few below-the-line categories as well, especially since France wisely selected it as their submission for International Feature, a mistake they made last season by opting out of selecting eventual six-time nominee Anatomy of a Fall. The film opens in select theaters on November 1 before dropped on Netflix November 13, so it won’t be long to wait now before viewers are able to decipher for themselves just how competitive it really is, and given the musical genre’s recent struggles at the box office, a streaming home might be just what it needs to entice reluctant would-be patrons.
 
Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (Jacques Audiard), Best Actress (Karla Sofía Gascón), Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), Best International Feature, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Sound

​Gladiator II
 
For my money, one of the biggest questions this Oscar season is whether or not multiple sequels will make it into the Best Picture field. It’s not an unheard of prospect – only two years ago both Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick competed for the top prize (which would eventually go to Everything Everywhere All at Once) – but that was also the first time in Oscars history that such a thing has ever occurred. When it comes to this year, the big question mark hovers over Ridley Scott’s hotly anticipated Gladiator II, which sees former Oscar nominee Paul Mescal (Aftersun) in the lead part after Russell Crowe’s Maximus tragically perished at the end of the original film, which won Best Picture in 2001 (2000 being the competition year). First reactions to the film, which dropped following its first screening on October 18, praise it as perhaps Scott’s best since Black Hawk Down, with nearly everyone singling out both its audacious production values and Denzel Washington’s performance, an apparent front-line contender in the Supporting Actor race (some have even pegged it as win-competitive). That sounds like a recipe for enormous awards success, provided it hits with the right audiences, and if its projected box office opening – which it’s set to pull off against Universal Studios’ Wicked – is anything to go by, there will be a lot of audiences for it to hit.
 
Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Actor (Paul Mescal), Best Supporting Actor (Denzel Washington), Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound

Maria
 
Pablo Larraín’s recent output of biopics about complicated famous women and the public’s relationship to their personas has been a consistent staple in the Oscars race for each year in which they’ve been released. Both Jackie and Spencer managed to score Lead Actress nominations for Natalie Portman and Kristen Stewart respectively, with the former also scoring nods for Original Score and Costume Design. This season looks to be another repeat success for the Chilean filmmaker, as Larraín is poised to go three for three in the Lead Actress category, this year’s nominee being Angelina Jolie, who plays renowned American-Greek soprano Maria Callas. Those who have seen the film rave about Jolie’s performance, with many citing this as the best of Larraín’s leading lady performances to date. The film is also expected to contend in other below-the-line categories, though its critical appraisal – as of this writing – may keep it from reaching the necessary heights required to attain other above-the-line category nods.
 
Best Chances: Best Actress (Angelina Jolie), Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design

​Nickel Boys
 
Another Telluride premiere turned Oscar hopeful, Nickel Boys is based on the Pulitzer Prize-Winning novel of the same name by Colson Whitehead. Early reactions to the film have raved about its bravery, daring cinematography, and devastating emotional core. Having not yet read the book (and, of course, not having not seen the film), I can’t speak to just how emotional the story gets, nor its production qualities, but it is expected to be a strong Oscar contender nonetheless. In fact, director RaMell Ross currently sits in my number 5 spot in Best Director predictions, given how the Academy does like to surprise with an unexpected name (or lack thereof) in that category. The film is set for mid-December release in New York and Los Angeles prior to a likely outward expansion over the winter months.
 
Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Director (RaMell Ross), Best Cinematography, Best Adapted Screenplay 

​Nosferatu
 
Until the most recent trailer was released for Robert Eggers’ upcoming take on the titular vampire horror story, many Oscar pundits (including me) may have assumed that the furthest it could reach would be a Best Cinematography nomination. After all, The Lighthouse is Eggers’ only film to not be completely shut out by the Academy come nomination time, and it was in the Cinematography category that it found its singular point of praise. In fact, this film was not originally included on this list. However, once viewing the trailer, Cinematography became all but a certainty; the question now becomes not “can Nosferatu score any nominations,” but “how many more nominations can it score?” As a remake of one of the most iconic silent era classics, it’s sure to enthuse many a cinephile from within the Academy’s ranks, and with Robert Eggers’ star only rising every time he puts out a movie, this could be their chance to reward him for nearly a decade of visionary filmmaking.
 
Best Chances: Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling 

​Queer
 
With Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers remaining conversationally relevant in terms of the best movies of 2024 to date, it’s tough to tell whether the director’s upcoming Queer, starring Daniel Craig and Drew Starkey, will hold enough sway with the Academy to ultimately make a stronger dent, or if the former is the stronger bid for Picture contention. Early reactions from the film out of Venice suggested that it may be too unwieldy for some fans, whereas others praised just how strange it was. In any case, not one of those reactions suggested that Daniel Craig would be dropping out of the Best Actor race, and the film – which is adapted from the William S. Boroughs’ novel of the same name – still holds strong odds in Adapted Screenplay. Personally, I’m always interested to see what Luca Guadagnino is up to, so I’ll be seeing it either way. Whether the Academy will like what they see enough for a real push is anyone’s guess.
 
Best Chances: Best Actor (Daniel Craig), Best Supporting Actor (Drew Starkey), Best Adapted Screenplay

​A Real Pain
 
Searchlight Pictures’ other contender this awards season is Jesse Eisenberg’s writer/director project, A Real Pain, in which the actor plays David Kaplan, who embarks on a guided tour through Poland with his cousin Benji (Kieran Culkin) following the death of Benji’s grandmother. While critical reception of the film itself has been on the mixed-positive side, Culkin’s performance is one of the two strongest contenders right now for a Supporting Actor win, and that tenth spot in Best Picture could mean the film has an opening to fight for amongst the pack, depending on whether or not it hits properly with audiences when it releases on November 1. It certainly is likely to land (and perhaps be win-competitive) in Original Screenplay as well, especially with a slightly less crowded field than Adapted, and I’ve got a personal sneaking suspicion that if it does well, Culkin and the script won’t be the only nominations it can muster.
 
Best Chances: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin), Best Original Screenplay

Wicked
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While nomination counts may ultimately appear lower in the major categories, there’s no denying the box office juggernaut Universal Studios has on their hands with Wicked, which adapts the first half of the Broadway musical phenomenon by the same name. Pre-sales for the film are already sky high, and many pundits believe there are a few of the larger tech categories in which it could be win-competitive. Such a large production – with a Thanksgiving release no less, opening against Gladiator II – requires some impressive production quality to pull off, and although the color grading in the trailers has left some cinephiles wanting, the design work itself appears to have leaned into the audacious nature of such a production. The reveal of the soundtrack’s song list indicated that there would be no original music included in this half of the Wicked story, so Best Original Song is definitively not happening, but a surprise Sound nomination could be in the cards if it truly blows viewers away. We’ll be able to sniff out whether Universal’s bid to campaign its two stars, Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, for Lead and Supporting Actress bears any weight with the Academy once people have had a chance to see the film, but for the time being, expect it to at least show up in all major design categories.
 
Best Chances: Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling

And that’s it for the major contenders for this year’s Oscars season. Have you seen any of these films? Was I right on the money or way off on some? Let me know in the comments below, and thanks for reading! Stay tuned for the minor contenders, coming soon!
 
- The Friendly Film Fan