 The Friendly Film Fan Selects What Will and What Should Win at the 98th Academy Awards Well, the time is finally here. After a long and far too protracted awards season (seriously, Academy, put the Oscars back in late February), we’ve finally arrived at that fateful day. Tomorrow, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will unveil their choices for the best in film of 2025, and we’ll all be there to witness all the triumph, the chaos, and hopefully, a few unexpected surprises. To that end, it’s time for our final round of Oscar predictions for this season. It’s been a doozy from start to finish; some races have been more or less sewn up for months, others still have multiple viable paths to a win for multiple nominees within the same category with no common consensus for what would take the lead if just one more awards ceremony took place prior to this year’s Academy Awards. Historic nomination tallies, dominant awards season runs for multiple films, significant momentum shifts, and a brand new category introduced for this year alone; it’s been exciting, vexing, and all around a far more interesting season than any we’ve had so far this decade. The players are set, and all that’s left to do is see which of them stands to share in the glory and spoils (and which dark horses are waiting in the wings like Lewis Hamilton, ready to fly straight up a split middle at a moment’s notice). One last time, here are our final predictions for the 98th Annual Academy Awards.  BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT The Nominees:
Should Win: The Devil is Busy Could Steal: The Devil is Busy Dark Horse: Perfectly a Strangeness Should Have Been Nominated: Bad Hostage The shorts categories, by and large, are always a crap shoot if one hasn’t managed to access them all by the time the ceremony starts, and unfortunately that lack of accessibility often translates to the most widely available film in each of the three shorts categories taking the win, rather than what’s actually the best. Luckily, however, the lead contenders for the Best Documentary Short prize this year are both widely accessible, with All the Empty Rooms being on Netflix and The Devil is Busy being on HBO Max. Personally, I’d like to see The Devil is Busy win here, as it’s the most well-rounded film of the bunch, but I wouldn’t bet against the other title either. Netflix has been fairly dominant in this category, even when their winning film was one of the weakest entries, so predicting another win for them here – despite wishing otherwise – seems like the right call.  BEST ANIMATED SHORT The Nominees:
Should Win: Butterfly Could Steal: Retirement Plan Dark Horse: The Girl Who Cried Pearls Should Have Been Nominated: Snow Bear Don’t be surprised if Retirement Plan steals a not-so-slightly unexpected win in this category; it’s the definition of short, so it’s also the most easily digestible of the five, and yet, this branch often likes to go for something deeper, which is why I’m placing my bets on the painted portrait of a holocaust survivor in Butterfly. That said, I wouldn’t underestimate The Girl Who Cried Pearls either; stop motion animation is extremely difficult to pull off, so there’s a chance (albeit miniscule) that the Academy recognizes that difficulty and elects to reward the effort instead.  BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT The Nominees:
Should Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva Could Steal: The Singers Dark Horse: A Friend of Dorothy Should Have Been Nominated: N/A The “should win” is an easy one here; Two People Exchanging Saliva is the superior film to all the others, even if it’s not the most obvious nominee of the bunch, and given that Netflix is most likely to win the Documentary Shorts category, I find it unlikely – though hardly impossible – that they would go two for two with both All the Empty Rooms and The Singers. Still, stranger things have happened, and let’s not discount A Friend of Dorothy’s sweetness being able to work a number on Academy voters.  BEST SOUND The Nominees:
Should Win: F1 Could Steal: Sinners Dark Horse: Sirāt Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: Avatar: Fire and Ash This choice seems like a simple one, until one remembers just how dominant Sinners is with its nomination tally; there’s a high chance it could steal the spotlight here and shift things in a big way as the night goes on, but the safest bet here is also probably the most assured. The fact of the matter is that sound design in movies about fast vehicles often triumphs in the category, even with a category combining mixing and editing, and F1 is in position one for a win, especially given Joseph Kosinski’s previous film – Top Gun: Maverick – also won in this category.  BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Nominees:
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: The Lost Bus Should Have Been Nominated: Superman Even more than the Best Actress race, this one was over before it ever began. Avatar: Fire and Ash is the most stunning visual effects achievement of the year, and it wouldn’t be a competition even if it only looked just as good as Way of Water, instead of somehow better.  BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
Should Win: Jafar Pahani, It Was Just an Accident or Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme Should Have Been Nominated: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby If there’s one guaranteed Oscar Ryan Coogler is likely to win, it’s in this category. He’s won the WGA for Original Screenplay, as well as the BAFTA, the HCA, and a host of critics prizes where there is a featured split between original and adapted works. The only loss he’s taken so far was at the Golden Globes, where there’s only one screenplay category that combines both original and adapted; that award went to One Battle after Another, which is not competing in this category at all, so a Sinners win doesn’t just feel likely – it feels inevitable. Still, it’s a shame that the two best original screenplays of the year don’t really stand a chance at overcoming those odds and surprising us all with a true upset.  BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another Could Steal: Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao, Hamnet Dark Horse: Jang Joo-hwan and Will Tracy, Bugonia Should Have Been Nominated: Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice Much like the category before it, Adapted Screenplay is more or less sewn up tight with a likely win for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, especially as that film occupies the space of the current Best Picture frontrunner. However, if a truly bizarre upset were to occur, Hamnet would be the most likely culprit. Academy voters have a particular fondness for Chloé Zhao’s family tragedy, and with a preferential balloting system driving voting, there’s a non-zero chance that it could pull more votes than we think.  BEST ORIGINAL SONG The Nominees:
Should Win: “I Lied to You,” Sinners Could Steal: “I Lied to You,” Sinners Dark Horse: “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams Should Have Been Nominated: “Highest 2 Lowest,” Highest 2 Lowest or “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet," Come See Me in the Good Light With all the momentum flowing in KPop Demon Hunters’ direction, it can be difficult to even conceive of “Golden” losing this award, but personally, I find “I Lied to You” so essential to the story of Sinners that maybe it should win instead. Nevertheless, a mainstream pop hit is a rare thing for the Academy Awards to have in their arsenal, and as one of the only two original songs being performed at the ceremony (likely for the show’s opening), a “Golden” win is their best chance to embrace the mainstream crowd in this category.  BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Nominees:
Should Win: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Max Richter, Hamnet Should Have Been Nominated: Daniel Lopatin, Marty Supreme What is with the Academy’s score branch ignoring electronically-based music even when it’s featured in one of the absolute best scores of the year? Marty Supreme should be here, just as Challengers should have been last year, and yet even if it was, no score this year was as memorable or truly original as that of Ludwig Göransson’s for Sinners. Göransson has become somewhat of a force of nature for this category, already having racked up two wins with his Black Panther and Oppenheimer scores, and may well be on his way to a fourth should The Odyssey prove the awards juggernaut it’s believed it could be. That’s a level of repeat success only enjoyed by a rare class of musician, but when the music is this good, who’s complaining about getting more of it?  BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Nominees:
Should Win: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, & Cliona Furey, Frankenstein Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Thomas Foldberg and Anne Catherine Sauerberg, The Ugly Stepsister Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: 28 Years Later Frankenstein and its director, Guillermo Del Toro, are clearly loved by the Academy at large, evidenced by the film’s total tally of 9 nominations – which ties both Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme – most of them in craft categories. Its strongest craft work is the makeup done for Jacob Elordi’s Creature character, and Del Toro’s films are not simply mainstays in this category; they often dominate it. It’s doubtful that the film goes much further than the three awards it’s likely to win as a handsomely mounted production of a classic novel, but those wins will be well-earned nonetheless.  BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Nominees:
Should Win: Ruth E. Carter, Sinners Could Steal: Ruth E. Carter, Sinners Dark Horse: Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet Should Have Been Nominated: Colleen Atwood, One Battle after Another One Battle after Another missing Costume Design but landing a nod in Production Design was a curveball almost no one saw coming, and it’s sad to know that Colleen Atwood’s instantly iconic looks for both Bob and Willa Ferguson will go unrecognized in an official capacity by the Academy. That said, the Avatar: Fire and Ash nomination is an inspired choice; the Ash tribe’s look is crucial to how the audience perceives their intentions, and on displays, those costumes look incredibly intricate and specific. Avatar won’t win though, as this remains one of the three design categories for which Frankenstein is likely to clean house. The Academy loves period pieces when it comes to the design work, and Frankenstein gets the closest to being one that’s more recognizable to a certain crop of voters than anything else on the list does, even if Ruth E. Carter’s designs for Sinners (in my opinion) are the more deserving option. It takes real talent to recycle costumes that were originally going to be part of a now-dead Blade movie and actually accentuate their strengths even further.  BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Nominees:
Should Win: Jack Fisk, Marty Supreme or Hannah Beachler, Sinners Could Steal: Hannah Beachler, Sinners Dark Horse: Jack Fisk, Marty Supreme Should Have Been Nominated: Jørgen Stangebye Larsen, Sentimental Value Another award I personally feel should be going to Sinners for the stunning concept art being brought to life in such tactile and instantly iconic ways, Production Design marks what will likely be the final time we see a Frankenstein win take place. No matter how digital the camera and lighting makes the sets look at times, the breadth of practicality with which Tamara Deverell designed them is impressive. With that in mind, dear Academy who is definitely reading this, let’s not take too much longer to give Jack Fisk an Oscar, okay? That wouldn’t be great.  BEST FILM EDITING The Nominees:
Should Win: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle after Another Could Steal: Stephen Mirrione, F1 Dark Horse: Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value Should Have Been Nominated: N/A Gone is the notion that the “most editing” always translates to the “best editing” for the Academy Awards. Not since the days of Ford v Ferrari have we seen a film with the number of cuts F1 has actually win after garnering a nomination, and the focus of the award now seems to be centered on how invisible or how smooth the edit feels over the course of the film. That puts Andy Jurgensen in the best position for his work on One Battle After Another to walk up to the stage and accept the award, although F1’s fast-cutting speed racing may be only tenths of a second behind.  BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY The Nominees:
Should Win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners Could Steal: Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams Dark Horse: Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: Jingsong Dong, Resurrection For a long time, it was believed that Autumn Durald Arkapaw would triumph in the Cinematography category for her stellar work in Sinners, with some suggesting that Adolpho Veloso’s photography in Train Dreams would be the win that dashed those hopes. Then, Michael Bauman started winning awards, the BSC and the ASC specifically, for his VistaVision-shot work on One Battle after Another, some word came out that other DPs were not particular fans of the shadow work in Sinners, and the whole race got flipped on its head. Bauman’s cinematography is excellent, but it’s hard not to feel a bit disappointed that a woman – more specifically a woman of color – was in the lead to win the category, and now just isn’t anymore. In any case, the Academy’s unfortunate erasure of Resurrection from the nominations pool means that Jingsong Dong can never receive his well-deserved flowers for the actual best cinematography of the year.  BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE The Nominees:
Should Win: The Alabama Solution Could Steal: Mr. Nobody Against Putin Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow or 2000 Meters to Andriivka The Documentary Feature category is a tough one to crack sometimes (especially when it comes to nominations), but this year, there stands one clear frontrunner above all others. The Perfect Neighbor is most likely to win here, and was one of my favorite films of 2025, even if my professional opinion is that The Alabama Solution is a better documentary overall. It helps that the film has been widely accessible to mass audiences since October, while films like Mr. Nobody Against Putin – a fairly solid documentary with some bizarre ethical failings – remains stuck behind one’s needing to rent or purchase it in order to see it, but it doesn’t make up for the fact that both of the two best Russia-centric documentaries this year, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow and 2000 Meters to Andriivka, were left out of the nominations entirely when even one of them making it would have sufficed (personal, I prefer the former).  BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM The Nominees:
Should Win: Sentimental Value (Norway) Could Steal: The Secret Agent (Brazil) Dark Horse: Sirāt (Spain) Should Have Been Nominated*/Submitted**: No Other Choice (South Korea)* or Resurrection (China)** What did Park Chan-wook do to the Academy for them to treat him the way they do by refusing to recognize him properly? No Other Choice is one of the director’s best works, and it’s a shame that not only did AMPAS not nominate it in this category, they didn’t nominate it for anything at all (even for one of the screenplay awards). I suppose the idea is that a Korean satire of capitalism and blind ambition driving desperate people to do unseemly things to succeed already won Best Picture in 2020, but why shouldn’t that mean that one can get nominated again? Not even for this? I digress. As for the nominees that are here, people can thank the nine nominations Sentimental Value picked up – including four acting nods – for putting it back in first place after it was feared The Secret Agent could usurp it for the top spot. (R.I.P. Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident; your initial awards momentum will be missed.) However, The Secret Agent is far from dead, and if anything were to take this award away from my personal favorite film of last year, it would likely be the other Best Picture nominee from this category, which also shows up in Best Casting and Best Actor for Wagner Moura. I don’t think it’s likely that it takes the win personally, but it wouldn’t be the craziest upset that could happen this year.  BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Nominees:
Should Win: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain Should Have Been Nominated: N/A The dominance of KPop Demon Hunters over song and animation categories culminates with this race, in which it has such a huge lead, the other nominees might as well stop running altogether (though they shouldn’t). If it were up to me, I would give this award to Arco or Little Amélie since the frontrunner has some story problems I think bring it down as a narrative experience, but as you’ve probably surmised by now, it’s not up to me. This is the KPop Demon Hunters award, and with news of a newly-announced sequel on the way, the film’s brand shows no signs of slowing down.  BEST CASTING The Nominees:
Should Win: Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme Could Steal: Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle after Another Dark Horse: Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent Should Have Been Nominated: Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman, Sentimental Value The newest category to be added to the Oscars slate, Best Casting is one category where I’m not really sure what to expect or what it’s supposed to look like in practice. The prevailing theory is that Sinners’ win at SAG for Best Ensemble could easily translate to a win here, but a Best Ensemble award and a Best Casting award aren’t quite the same thing, which leaves a lot of room for wiggle room for another candidate to take home the win. Marty Supreme and The Secret Agent are front of mind in this regard, as both films’ use of non-actors and industry vets stretching different screen muscles do a lot to lift their narratives surrounding the category. Whatever the category looks like once the fab five chosen for it are actually up on stage, it wouldn’t be the wisest thing to bet against Sinners here.  BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR The Nominees:
Should Win: Sean Penn, One Battle after Another or Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value Could Steal: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value Dark Horse: Delroy Lindo, Sinners Should Have Been Nominated: Paul Mescal, Hamnet Despite rumors circling that Delroy Lindo could pull a Marcia Gay Harden and win the category in a major upset without any precursor wins to speak of, Best Supporting Actor still feels like a two-horse race to me, and which horse one bets on depends on whether one thinks the Academy is more eager to reward legacy or showiness. Stellan Skarsgård, whose work has been highly lauded for decades and who ascends to new heights in Sentimental Value, has both the Golden Globe and the fact that he’s never won an Oscar before behind him; the Academy could see this as their chance to reward him not just for one of his absolute best performances, but a long career of great work (plus, with no international nominees appearing in the SAG nominations at all, it’s not as though Sean Penn had Skarsgård to compete against). To his credit, Delroy Lindo does share a similar narrative as far as legacy is concerned, so dismissing him entirely wouldn’t be smart. On the other hand, Sean Penn did win at the BAFTAs – an international awards show – and at the SAG Awards, which suggests a great deal of strength in this category, and we know this Academy does not care about rewarding repeat winners if the performance is strong enough (see Adrien Brody and Emma Stone), so a third Sean Penn win is far from out of the question. With One Battle after Another unlikely to pick up another acting win besides this one, I’ve elected to stick with Sean Penn as the most likely winner over Skarsgård, though I truly will be fine with a win for either one. It’s just a shame Paul Mescal’s achingly vulnerable supporting turn in Hamnet couldn’t quite crack this group of five.  BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The Nominees:
Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value Could Steal: Amy Madigan, Weapons Dark Horse: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value Should Have Been Nominated: Miriam Afshari, It Was Just an Accident Most people were shocked, myself included, when Elle Fanning’s name came up as the Supporting Actress nominees were announced; with little to no precursor nominations to speak of, including a miss at SAG for the only American cast member in Sentimental Value, it didn’t seem like she would overcome the international shutout in the same way that the film’s other principal actors would once the international Academy got a hold of their nominee submissions. Fanning’s work in Sentimental Value is some of the absolute best of her career, so her inclusion here isn’t nothing, but neither do I think of her as the supporting actress from the film with the best chance at a win. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, though she’s been working for many years in much smaller fare, is a real discovery for worldwide audience members, and sometimes a great “come out of nowhere” performance like hers can attract enough support to pull off a win in this category. The two lead contenders, though, are Amy Madigan (SAG and Critics’ Choice winner in this category) and Wunmi Mosaku (BAFTA winner). Teyana Taylor is still very much in the mix, but with no significant wins since the Golden Globes, she’s sitting in a comfortable third place right next to Lilleaas. Neither SAG nor Critics’ Choice match up perfectly with this category historically, but neither does BAFTA, so who wins between Madigan and Mosaku is more likely to come down to who has the momentum at any given time. There is a long history of the Academy awarding Best Supporting Actress to the sole nominee attached to a film, as is the case with Madigan and Weapons, and the instant Halloween icon that is Aunt Gladys is nothing to sneeze at, but with an increasingly international Academy unlikely to consider Madigan’s legacy in American films as a data point, and Sinners holding the all-time nomination tally, I’ve selected Wunmi Mosaku as my choice for a win. It’s a risky move if one considers the math of it more important than the vibes, but I’ve got an instinct that Mosaku’s rising star over the past few years – especially as more people have gotten a chance to catch up to her stellar performance in the Netflix film His House – may just line up with the number of votes needed to swing into winning position.  BEST ACTOR The Nominees:
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme Could Steal: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle after Another Should Have Been Nominated: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams or Jesse Plemons, Bugonia The category giving every awards prognosticator the migraine of a lifetime amongst the thrill of unknowability, Best Actor is anybody’s guess for who takes home the gold this year. On the one hand, Timothée Chalamet’s resurfaced comments on ballet and opera didn’t quite go viral before voting closed and of the five nominees, he’s the only one to hold two major wins with both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards locked up; on the other hand, Chalamet’s momentum was already slowing when Michael B. Jordan won the Best Actor award at SAG smack in the middle of Oscar voting, and Jordan’s been working steadily in the industry since he was a kid on HBO’s The Wire, and came extremely close to a nomination for his work in Coogler’s other Best Picture-nominated film, Black Panther, so he’s got a long legacy of great work behind him to boost his chances. Plus, Chalamet’s Golden Globe win is shared with Wagner Moura since the lead acting categories for that show are split into Drama and Musical or Comedy, so it’s not as though he was going up against Moura directly, and one wonders if he would have triumphed in an industry-centered head-to-head fight. Also, there is one interesting wrinkle to the whole race; according to The Big Picture podcast co-host Sean Fennessy, there has been some speculation floating around that Leonardo DiCaprio was probably in second place for a BAFTA win, which ultimately went to Robert Aramayo for the British Tourette’s drama I Swear, a non-starter for the Academy Awards. The BAFTA Best Actor winner has lined up with an Oscars win nine out of the last ten years (prior to this season), and even though stats and math don’t matter as much to this new Academy (so DiCaprio already having an Oscar may not be a factor), that’s a hard level of consistency to ignore. Then again, one should never underestimate the international contingent, and especially the Brazilian portion of that contingent, in boosting their films and stars to success; a Wager Moura win here is unlikely, but with the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a drama, the likely vote-splitting between Chalamet and Jordan, and the fact that the Brazilian lead acting contender last year – Fernanda Torres – did not ultimately win her category despite strong momentum going into the race, there’s a narrow but very clear path for Moura to correct that record. Whatever happens, whoever wins, only one certainty remains abundantly, absolutely clear: this one is a nail-biter all the way to the finish.  BEST ACTRESS The Nominees:
Should Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You Could Steal: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You Dark Horse: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value Should Have Been Nominated: Chase Infiniti, One Battle after Another or Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby At least there’s one acting prize that’s not up in the air going into Oscar night. Jessie Buckley is winning this category for her stellar, soul-bearing performance in Hamnet, and it’s not an especially close race (even though I would personally love to see a Rose Byrne win more for her thornier, more bracing performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). Buckley has been in the lead all season and shows no signs of slowing down at all, having built a steady body of great work for nearly a decade on which she’s been able to climb towards the top of the mountain, and now she’s reached the summit with the industry ready to place a crown on her head and gold in her hand; it’s a near-identical playbook to the one that got Sean Baker a five-win package for Anora last year. Hamnet is very much Buckley’s film before it’s anyone else’s, and if she’s not giving the performance she is, the film doesn’t quite pull off the intended effect on its audience. Congratulations, Jessie Buckley; you have nothing to prove, and yet, you’ve proved it all anyway.  BEST DIRECTOR The Nominees:
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another Could Steal: Ryan Coogler, Sinners Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: Bi Gan, Resurrection This race is more or less an open and shut case. Even if one were to believe an upset is possible (and it is possible), the likelihood of anyone in this category taking down Paul Thomas Anderson is so low it’d be foolish to predict it, even if Ryan Coogler is the only other person in the category who could. Each of these candidates would be worthy of their own award in any other year (and some have won this category before), but the legacy of PTA’s filmography, the fact that he doesn’t have a single Oscar yet, the DGA win, PGA win, and a host of other factors all point to the same conclusion: PTA will win Best Director following a very good night for One Battle after Another – including a win in Best Adapted Screenplay for PTA – and our next category will be just about sewn up.  BEST PICTURE The Nominees:
Should Win: One Battle after Another Could Steal: Sinners Dark Horse: Sentimental Value Should Have Been Nominated: It Was Just an Accident The ultimate showdown of this year comes down to exactly two films: One Battle after Another and Sinners, both of which are some of their respective directors most widely acclaimed films, and both of which had stellar box office runs during their main releases this past year, which means they were both widely seen. There are paths for either one to take a win, especially in a Director/Picture split, but the ultimate victory simply comes down to where Academy members place them on a preferential ballot, and which path holds more sway. Both have stellar win packages as they approach the finish line. Sinners has SAG Ensemble, a WGA win for Original Screenplay, a SAG Best Actor win for Michael B. Jordan, an ACE Eddie award, and the most Oscar nominations of all time, a Best Picture package as concrete as there’s ever been. Then again, One Battle after Another has…well, basically everything else – PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE Eddie, ASC, even some makeup and costume design awards for contemporary film; so far, it’s had the most dominant run for a Best Picture nominee in Oscars history. Should a split happen, leading to a Sinners win, it would be one the largest upsets ever from a pure data perspective. However, the likeliest outcome is also the one I’ve gone with here, and the one I personally think should happen: One Battle after Another will win the big one, and Ryan Coogler’s Oscar will be for his near-guaranteed win in Original Screenplay. And those are our predictions for the 98th Annual Academy Awards! What do you think is going to take home the gold? Are you as shaky as we are in Best Actor? Any surprises you’re hoping for? Let us know in the comments section below, and stay tuned for our full recap of the 2026 Oscars on Monday, March 16! Thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan
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 The Friendly Film Fan Unveils Our Winning Picks Well, the time is finally here for the biggest awards event in movies! Back in February, we unveiled our nominations for the best and brightest work in the cinematic world of 2025, and now the time has finally come to reveal which films rose to the top of the pack. Some of these winners were relatively easy choices, and some we genuinely deliberated on right up to the last possible minute. It’s been a long road through this awards season and we still have two days to go after this, so let’s not waste any time waxing poetic about the state of the movie industry or recapping the whole year right up top (we can do that tomorrow). Here are your 10th Annual Friendly Film Fan Award Winners!  BEST SOUND DESIGN
When it came to pure sound design, there were a great number of films that pulled off impressive work, but none immersed us in its world quite like the hyper-specific soundscapes of F1 racing. Sure, it may be the most obvious pick of the bunch, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a worthy winner, and sitting in a theater watching fast cars pull off incredible speed was neck and neck with listening to it happen. Congratulations, F1, on winning the first award of the night!  BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
There really was no other option to choose here, despite the slate of worthy candidates. James Cameron’s Avatar films are simply operating at a stratospheric level above everything with which they find themselves in competition, and Fire and Ash – despite being shot at the same time as the franchise’s previous entrant – somehow sees the series looking the absolute best it ever has. There simply is no one doing it like the Avatar VFX team, and they will deserve their flowers every single time one of their movies comes out.  BEST SCREENPLAY
When considering what to award Best Screenplay, the debate resulted in one of the tightest races we had to engage with. Ultimately, however, we landed on the idea of a film’s script as its starring quality, the one thing it does better than anything else, and that led us to Jafar Panahi’s inspired work on It Was Just an Accident. The film is often darkly funny, thrilling, tense, and telling a much deeper story in as accessible a way as Panahi has ever told it, and we’re proud to hand this award to him tonight; we’re sure he considers it the highest honor in film awards he could receive. BEST SCORE
There was so much great music this past year from so many different films, we couldn’t even fit everything we wanted to mention into the nominations, but there was one film whose score was so central to its identity that its shadow covered everything within it, and that was Ludwig Göransson’s masterfully blues-infused score for Sinners. We may genuinely need to consider Göransson as one of the great musical geniuses not just in filmmaking, but in the world at large; each and every one of his scores seems to top the previous one, and Sinners is one of his most enjoyable works to listen to over and over and over again. Without question, it is the score we’ve listened to the most all year long.  BEST CHARACTER DESIGN
When it comes to character design, it’s easy to go for the fanciest competitor, but for our money, the costumes, makeup, and hairstyling of Ryan Coogler’s Sinners does more to enhance its storytelling than anything else we nominated here. Smoke and Stack aren’t just easily identifiable because of Michael B. Jordan’s great dual performance; each also has colors associated with their looks that appear in almost every costume they wear, and to think these were mostly recycled pieces from the tragically-cancelled Blade film! It also shouldn’t be slept on that the makeup work in Sinners gets more impressive the more one watches it, with the vampire transformations looking as genuine as the ways in which each character’s hairstyling speaks to their inner lives. Spoiler alert: this won’t be the last award Sinners wins tonight!  BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Production design doesn’t just mean fancy sets and ornate set decoration (though those things are also important); it’s the act of immersing us into a world through the design of its totality, from the character work to yes, the sets, to concepts of the world the characters occupy, and to us, there’s no better example of that than the ways in which Sinners immerses the viewer in the world of the deep south of Mississippi during the Jim Crow era. The church at the film’s start, the train station, the juke joint, the car, the guitar, and Pearline’s at the film’s finale are all distinct ideas rendered beautifully as physical sets, while the concepts for each character and how they move through the world fit like a glove within them. Congratulations, Sinners, on your third straight win in a row tonight! BEST FILM EDITING
Film editing is like stitching clothes together: if you can see the seams, it better be part of the design, but if you can’t, that might just be even better. One Battle after Another – which runs a full 2 hours and 40 minutes – is a seamless film, never slowing down for a second once the ball gets rolling, and managing to make single 40-minute stretch of film (from the attack on Bob’s home to his eventual fall off the roof) feel like 5-10 minutes at most. To make something like that happen is a minor miracle, but to pull it off as well as Andy Jurgensen does is as astonishing feat worthy of recognition. Even the car chase at the end of the film is a testament to how brilliantly edited the whole thing is, and we couldn’t be prouder to hand this award to Andy Jurgensen for his astonishing work.  BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cinematography isn’t just what the frames of a film look like or even how a camera moves, though those things are no less important; it’s also how the frame is lit, what’s in it, how it’s captured, by what sort of lens. Ultimately the question is: what do the images make you feel? And if you were one of the lucky few that got to experience Resurrection in a movie theater, there is only one answer to that question: awe. How Jingsong Dong captures the five different stories Resurrection tells is nothing short of a miracle, and every frame is dripping with sumptuous color and life, so much so one may not notice the entire fifth chapter being entirely one shot (albeit with some hidden cuts, most likely). It is easily the most stunning-looking film from 2025; we cast shame on the Academy for leaving it out of the nominations entirely, but here at The Friendly Film Fan Awards, the ultimate justice has been served. BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
Stunt work is an art form as worthy of an Oscar (or a FFF Award) as any other, and thank god the Academy finally came to their senses and announced they would be offering the category for the 100th Oscars two years from now; for now, however, the buck stops here for stunt work, and we were incredibly impressed with how the stunt teams behind F1 blended into all the action within it without skipping a beat. An F1 car is one of the world’s most deadly machines in terms of learning difficulty in transportation, and these stunt people genuinely put their lives on the line to make movie magic happen. Congratulations to F1! (Full disclosure on this: we forgot to include Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning in our original nominations, so we’re unable to award it here; we’re very sorry, Tom Cruise, but boy, you made that wing-walk look incredible, and we salute you.) BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
When one thinks of an acting ensemble, every performance across the board has to be the absolute best or near-best that everyone in the cast has ever given; every actor must come prepared with their A game, and not a single performance can have even one false note – such is the case with Sentimental Value, a perfectly performed movie with perfectly placed actors doing exactly that level of work from start to finish. The film doesn’t work if we can’t feel the souls of everyone on screen through their expressions or movements, and there’s not a weak link in the bunch. The Oscars may have passed over this film for Best Casting despite their four acting nominations, but we have made room for the whole group here, where it really counts.  BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Supporting parts really are the bread and butter of moviemaking. Without them, the leads wouldn’t have anyone to work with or against, and the stories being told can feel isolating and not fleshed-out enough; they’re a crucial piece of a radically difficult filmmaking puzzle, perhaps the most crucial element for enhancing a story’s potential, whether they’re venerated mainstays or brand new discoveries, and there was no brand new discovery more crucial to their film’s success this year than Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value. The character of Agnes in the film is the steadfast pillar on which all others lean, and the scene she shares with Renate Reinsve’s Nora at the film’s conclusion is a near-perfect encapsulation of exactly how difficult it can truly be to keep that pillar standing. Lilleaas’ performance under Joachim Trier’s direction is a genuine star-maker as she demonstrates both tremendous resolve and crushing vulnerability; we can’t wait to see what else future collaborations might have in store for her. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sometimes all it takes is for a veteran actor to come back in a big way and show everyone how it’s done. Every performance here elevates the material it’s working within, but at the end of the day, Sean Penn in One Battle after Another is just undeniable. The ways in which Penn walks, speaks, moves his face, licks his comb before running it through his awful hair…we’re not sure white supremacists have ever been sent up more than they have by the character of Colonel Steve Lockjaw, and it’s a testament to Penn’s genuine skill in timing that all the comic moments bouncing off of him land just as well as the terrifying ones he brings to bear. Third Oscar or not, he’s won The Friendly Film Fan Award for 2025, and that’s what matters. BEST ACTRESS
Even more than any other performance category, Best Actress is the one we had the hardest time deliberating on, but ultimately – much like Sean Penn – Jessie Buckley’s sheer power in Hamnet is more than undeniable: it’s impeccable. Buckley’s turn as Agnes is so full of heartbreak, love, fear, elation, confusion, clarity, and everything that comes along with the experience of true grief that one can’t help but fall as in love with her as Paul Mescal’s Shakespeare does, so much so that when the film’s titular character meets his end, her pain becomes ours, her loss becomes ours, and her eventual acceptance becomes ours. To see her so perfectly capture the experience of losing a child without ever having had a child of her own is a remarkable feat, and her inevitable Oscar win is sure to feel almost as good as her Friendly Film Fan Award win here. BEST ACTOR
With so many great lead actor performances to nominate from 2025, it broke our hearts to have to leave Jesse Plemons off the list for his stellar work in Bugonia, but neither could we pass up the opportunity to recognize Joel Edgerton’s soulful career-best performance in Train Dreams. Michael B. Jordan showed new range playing distinct yet unquestionable twins in Sinners, and Wagner Moura’s quiet journey through memory is as difficult a performance to pull off as any. And yet, when all is said and done, no lead performance this year quite blew us away like that of Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme. Chalamet is electric in the film, simultaneously pissing off his audience and getting them to root for his character the next minute just so we can see what he’ll get up to. Every minute spent with Marty Mauser is one in which we somehow believe that he’ll accomplish his ultimate goal whilst watching him make every wrong decision along the way to it, and how it all leads to the finale is a sight to behold. But it’s in the film’s final moments when Chalamet finally breaks down that we see what his break-neck performance style was covering up the whole time, and no one has pulled that kind of switch in styles better in any film from last year. So congratulations to Timothée Chalamet for this award; we look forward to calling you one of the all-time greats someday.  BEST DIRECTOR
Directing can take a lot of different forms; sometimes it’s about how to position nuanced characters around each other as they attempt to reckon with past trauma, sometimes it’s about balancing what forms revolution can take and matching those forms with the characters best suited to them, sometimes it’s about what it means to choose your own path in life and the sacrifices one has to make to preserve that path, and sometimes it’s about creating and executing a vision so singular that no one else could ever possibly attempt to replicate it. Bi Gan’s direction of Resurrection has to be seen to be believed; somehow the film is both in its infancy and fully formed all at once, a stunning monument to dreams and the ways in which cinema realizes them that feels like the work of an old master finally come to fruition. To create and then execute on a film like this – one you can feel in the bone marrow will become one of international cinema’s great works – takes a rare set of talents, and the whole thing could easily fall apart in another director’s hands. We’re also big fans of future Oscar winner Paul Thomas Anderson and his stellar work on One Battle after Another, but for our money, Bo Gan somehow managed to thread the needle between creating an instant classic and nailing a future standard-bearer better than we’ve ever seen it done, and for that, he received the Friendly Film Fan Award for Best Director. And now, it’s all come down to this: cinema’s most prestigious award. It’s been a long road getting here, and we’re sure all the nominees are anxious to find out the final results, so let’s not waste anymore time. The winner of the 2025 Friendly Film Fan Award for Best Picture is… BEST PICTURE
For the year of 2025, there were a few films that managed to define the cinematic calendar, but for us, none of them quite nailed the timeliness of their arrival quite like Paul Thomas Anderson’s revolutionary epic, One Battle after Another. PTA took his larger budget for this film and fulfilled every promise he made with it, from crafting unforgettable set pieces to writing dynamic characters with nuance and flaw to bringing to life a story of revolution in the modern age while reckoning with the idea that while we may have collectively failed in our mission to better the world, those generations who come after us may be the ones in whom we can have hope. In a sea of great works from 2025, to us, this was the movie of 2025. And that’s why we’re awarding it Best Picture at the 10th Annual Friendly Film Fan Awards. And those are your winners for the 10th Annual Friendly Film Fan Awards! What do you think of these winners? Any you’re surprised by? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading! Next up: our FINAL predictions for the 2026 Academy Awards. Stay tuned!
- The Friendly Film Fan  Our Picks for the Best in Film of 2025 Greetings all, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! At long last, it is finally time to unveil our nominees for the best in film of 2025. There were a lot of worthy candidates this year, and as always, some devastating cuts had to be made in order to fit the category requirements we entirely made up, which closely follow those imposed by the Academy on the Oscars (so we’re basically just as important). A bit about how this works: we nominate films in sixteen categories over a range of disciplines, most of which are self-explanatory, but a couple of which are different from the Academy Awards in small ways. For instance, Best Character Design is a combination of Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling, while Best Screenplay functions as a single category covering both adapted and original works. We also do not limit Best Score to entirely original music, but rather on the film’s overall use of music, whether it is original to the film or a reinterpretation or new integration of previously established music, so long as it is instrumental in nature. Finally, we determine our own category eligibility, so if an actor campaigns in a leading role category for the Academy Awards but we consider their role to be supporting, we will nominate them in a supporting category. If you've been following along on our Instagram, you already know what's nominated where, but in the rare event that you're someone who doesn't follow us (first of all, change that immediately), it’s time for the biggest news drop of awards season. Here are your nominees for the 10th Annual Friendly Film Fan Awards!  BEST SOUND DESIGN
 BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
 BEST SCREENPLAY
 tBEST SCORE
 BEST CHARACTER DESIGN
 BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
 BEST FILM EDITING
 BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
 BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
 BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
 BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
 BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
 BEST ACTRESS
 BEST ACTOR
 BEST DIRECTOR
And finally, here are your 2026 Friendly Film Fan Nominees for Best Picture…  BEST PICTURE
And those are your nominees for the 10th Annual Friendly Film Fan Awards! What do you think of these nominations? What are you hoping takes home a win? Let us know in the comments section below, and keep your eyes peeled for the winners announcement, March 13!
- The Friendly Film Fan  By Jacob Barlow-Jones With the 2026 Oscar nominations now confirmed and the nominations record broken by Sinners, it’s time to buckle down and get ready for the big event on March 15. Some will host parties, some will make it a quiet night in, and others will venture out to the bars and restaurants that occupy film’s hallowed grounds to see which films take home the gold and which go home empty-handed. It’s easy enough to guess which films are likely to win that coveted statue if one follows the races closely enough, but what about what deserves to win? How can one make an informed decision on their favorite nominees if seeing them in the first place is half the battle? That’s the question that we at The Friendly Film Fan are here to help answer. We’ll take you through film by film (in alphabetical order) on a guided journey towards nominee completion, so that you can best your friends and neighbors, impressing everyone with your ballot knowledge. Let’s get started. The Alabama Solution Nominated For: Best Documentary Feature Where to Watch: Streaming on HBO Max All the Empty Rooms Nominated For: Best Documentary Short Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix, In Select Theaters March 13-15 Arco Nominated For: Best Animated Feature Where to Watch: In Select Theaters Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud Nominated For: Best Documentary Short Where to Watch: Streaming on HBO Max Avatar: Fire and Ash Nominated For: Best Costume Design, Best Visual Effects Where to Watch: In Theaters Nationwide Blue Moon Nominated For: Best Actor (Ethan Hawke), Best Original Screenplay Where to Watch: Available on Blu-Ray and Digital Bugonia Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Actress (Emma Stone), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on Peacock Butcher’s Stain Nominated For: Best Live-Action Short Where to Watch: In Theaters March 13-15 Butterfly Nominated For: Best Animated Short Where to Watch: Streaming on YouTube and In Theaters March 13-15 Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” Nominated For: Best Documentary Short Where to Watch: In Select Theaters March 13-15 Come See Me in the Good Light Nominated For: Best Documentary Feature Where to Watch: Streaming on Apple TV+ Cutting Through Rocks Nominated For: Best Documentary Feature Where to Watch: In Select Theaters, On DocPlay March 2 The Devil Is Busy Nominated For: Best Documentary Short Where to Watch: Streaming on HBO Max, In Select Theaters March 13-15 Diane Warren: Relentless Nominated For: Best Original Song – “Dear Me” Where to Watch: Available on DVD and Digital Elio Nominated For: Best Animated Feature Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on Disney+ F1 Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Film Editing, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on Apple TV+ Forevergreen Nominated For: Best Animated Short Where to Watch: Streaming on Youtube, In Theaters March 13-15 Frankenstein Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Jacob Elordi), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Sound Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix, In Theaters March 9-15 A Friend of Dorothy Nominated For: Best Live-Action Short Where to Watch: In Theaters March 13-15, Available on Disney+ Europe via VPN The Girl Who Cried Pearls Nominated For: Best Animated Short Where to Watch: In Theaters March 13-15, Available on NFB.ca via VPN Hamnet Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Director (Chloé Zhao), Best Actress (Jessie Buckley), Best Casting, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, on 4K and Blu-Ray March 3, In Theaters March 9-15 If I Had Legs I’d Kick You Nominated For: Best Actress (Rose Byrne) Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital It Was Just an Accident Nominated For: Best International Feature (France), Best Original Screenplay Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital Jane Austen’s Period Drama Nominated For: Best Live-Action Short Where to Watch: Streaming on YouTube, In Theaters March 13-15 Jurassic World Rebirth Nominated For: Best Visual Effects Where to Watch: On 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on Peacock KPop Demon Hunters Nominated For: Best Animated Feature, Best Original Song – “Golden” Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix Kokuho Nominated For: Best Makeup & Hairstyling Where to Watch: In Theaters Nationwide Little Amélie or the Character of Rain Nominated For: Best Animated Feature Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, On Blu-Ray March 10 The Lost Bus Nominated For: Best Visual Effects Where to Watch: Streaming on Apple TV+ Marty Supreme Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Director (Josh Safdie), Best Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Best Casting, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, on 4K and Blu-Ray March 31 Mr. Nobody Against Putin Nominated For: Best Documentary Feature Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, on DVD April 7 One Battle After Another Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson), Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Best Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor) Best Supporting Actor x2 (Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn), Best Casting, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Original Score, Best Sound Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on HBO Max The Perfect Neighbor Nominated For: Best Documentary Feature Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix Perfectly a Strangeness Nominated For: Best Documentary Short Where to Watch: In Select Theaters March 13-15 Retirement Plan Nominated For: Best Animated Short Where to Watch: Streaming on YouTube The Secret Agent Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Actor (Wagner Moura), Best Casting, Best International Feature (Brazil) Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, In Theaters March 9-15 Sentimental Value Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Director (Joachim Trier), Best Actress (Renate Reinsve), Best Supporting Actress x2 (Elle Fanning, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Best Supporting Actor (Stellan Skarsgård), Best International Feature (Norway), Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, In Theaters March 9-15, and on 4K and Blu-Ray May 26 The Singers Nominated For: Best Live-Action Short Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix, In Theaters March 13-15 Sinners Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Director (Ryan Coogler), Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Best Supporting Actress (Wunmi Mosaku), Best Supporting Actor (Delroy Lindo), Best Casting, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Original Song – “I Lied to You,” Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on HBO Max Sirāt Nominated For: Best International Feature (Spain), Best Sound Where to Watch: In Select Theaters The Smashing Machine Nominated For: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on HBO Max Song Sung Blue Nominated For: Best Actress (Kate Hudson) Where to Watch: Available on Blu-Ray and Digital, and Streaming on Peacock The Three Sisters Nominated For: Best Animated Short Where to Watch: In Theaters March 13-15 Train Dreams Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Original Song – “Train Dreams” Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix, In Theaters March 9-15 Two People Exchanging Saliva Nominated For: Best Live-Action Short Where to Watch: Streaming on YouTube, In Theaters March 13-15 The Ugly Stepsister Nominated For: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Where to Watch: Available on Digital and Streaming on Shudder Viva Verdi! Nominated For: Best Original Song – “Sweet Dreams of Joy” Where to Watch: Available on Jolt The Voice of Hind Rajab Nominated For: Best International Feature (Tunisia) Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital Weapons Nominated For: Best Supporting Actress (Amy Madigan) Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on HBO Max Zootopia 2 Nominated For: Best Animated Feature Where to Watch: In Theaters Now And that is everything that’s nominated for an Oscar this year! Hopefully you found this guide helpful for organizing your watch time. If you’d rather knock out a few films at a time without switching apps or having to search around, here’s a similar handy little guide for you to reference. Netflix: All the Empty Rooms, Frankenstein, KPop Demon Hunters, The Perfect Neighbor, The Singers, Train Dreams HBO Max: The Alabama Solution, Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud, The Devil Is Busy, One Battle After Another, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons Disney+: Elio Apple TV+: Come See Me in the Good Light, F1, The Lost Bus Peacock: Bugonia, Jurassic World Rebirth, Song Sung Blue Shudder: The Ugly Stepsister YouTube: Butterfly, Forevergreen, Jane Austen's Period Drama, Retirement Plan, The Three Sisters, Two People Exchanging Saliva Jolt: Viva Verdi! Digital: Blue Moon, Diane Warren: Relentless, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, The Voice of Hind Rajab How many of these films have you seen? Anything you’re excited to check out or discover? Let us know in the comments section below, and if you find yourself struggling to get through them all, don’t sweat it; we’ll be updating this list as things become more widely available. All of the Best Picture nominees, as well as the nominated Live-Action and Animated short films will also be shown in theaters from March 9-15 for Oscar Week, so be sure to check and see if your local theater is participating! Thanks for reading! - The Friendly Film Fan This piece was last updated on 2/28/26. It was originally posted on 1/24/26.
 By Jacob Barlow-Jones Well, that was pretty crazy! After months of speculation and handwringing about which bubble contenders could knock out some of the on-the-wings selections of our Oscar nomination predictions, the full list of Oscar nominees for 2026 was unveiled this morning and it was a doozy! As usual, there were a lot of expected titles announced, as well as enough major snubs and surprises that I’m surprised I didn’t get whiplash just watching the announcement. The biggest winner of the morning was Ryan Coogler’s Black history vampire musical Sinners, which racked up a total of 16 nominations to not just break the all-time nominations record of 14 (which was a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land), but bury it with an additional 2 nominations to its name. In fact, as a studio, Warner Bros. brought in no less than 30 nominations across its recognized projects, including 13 for One Battle After Another, its other major awards contender this year (and still, to me, the Best Picture frontrunner despite that Chase Infiniti snub). One can imagine Netflix may be looking more closely at potentially expanding their theatrical windows for WB films, even after having just announced they would be committing to a minimum 45-day theatrical run for those projects. (I’ll believe it when I see it.) Among other surprises such as Elle Fanning, Delroy Lindo, and Kate Hudson all being nominated despite not having very strong pre-season runs – as well as F1 taking its Picture spot from Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident – is that Wicked: For Good wasn’t just shut out of Best Supporting Actress for Ariana Grande (its best shot for a major nomination); it was shut out of nominations entirely. No Costume Design, No Production Design, No Makeup and Hairstyling, nothing. Given that the last Wicked film landed 10 nominations last year, and won 2 Oscars, that’s a steep fall from grace, and a sign that perhaps the industry feels even more adversarial towards the sequel than even the sea of volatility that is film twitter does. Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice was likewise shut out of nominations, failing to garner a spot in the International Feature category and crushing the hopes of those who dreamed of Neon running the table in that space (they still have 4 nominees; it’s okay). I had wondered whether the Decision to Leave snub of 2023 would worm its way into this year’s Park Chan-wook work as well; I was, sadly, correct to assume it would. Other well-liked nominees included Sentimental Value, which made a strong showing with its four main performers garnering nods (making it all the more bizarre that the film missed Best Casting), Frankenstein, which performed exceptionally well in the tech categories despite missing out on Best Director for Guillermo Del Toro, Marty Supreme, which tied those previous two films with a nomination total of 9, and Hamnet, which landed 8 nominations, losing out on categories like Best Film Editing and Best Supporting Actor for Paul Mescal. Overall, it’s a well-deserving lineup, and despite the fact that some of my nomination hopes inevitably got dashed (r.i.p. Sorry, Baby, your screenplay should have been recognized), the surprises that made up for them were ones I didn’t expect would bring me such joy. The 98th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 15, at 7:00 p.m. EST, and will be broadcast for the last time on ABC. A full list of the nominated films is below. BEST PICTURE The Nominees:
BEST DIRECTOR The Nominees:
BEST ACTRESS The Nominees:
BEST ACTOR The Nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The Nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR The Nominees:
BEST CASTING The Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Nominees:
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM The Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE The Nominees:
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY The Nominees:
BEST FILM EDITING The Nominees:
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Nominees:
BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Nominees:
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG The Nominees:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Nominees:
BEST SOUND The Nominees:
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT The Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT The Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT The Nominees:
What do you think of these nominations? Were there any snubs or inclusions that shocked you? What do you think of Sinners now holding the nomination crown? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan  By Jacob Barlow-Jones Greetings all, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! I’m sure you all have many questions: where have we been? What have we been up to? Is a hot dog a sandwich (it’s not)? And finally, how are we coming back after all this time, not having written a proper review for anything since James Gunn’s Superman? What happened? You’ll find your answer below this text, courtesy of former French 75 revolutionary Bob Ferguson.  Needless to say, it’s been a somewhat rocky time for us over the past five months or so, but we are back, and it looks like just in the nick of time, because we are here to unveil our first and final Oscar nomination predictions piece of the season! There’s so much up in the air with the film industry right now, and predicting whether Netflix will actually preserve the sanctity of theatrical exhibition for their new Warner Bros. properties in a few years’ time, or whether they will simply say that while they figure out how to get more eyes on their streaming service so they don’t have to commit to it, is anyone’s guess and almost impossible to predict this far out from a finalization of the acquisition. But you know what won’t be impossible to predict this year? Your Oscar ballot. Even if we weren’t public-facing about it, we've been studying the playing field all year long. Some things rose above as the year went on, some have all but dropped their races entirely. Whatever the case, if you’re looking to impress your friends and colleagues or just like that feeling you get when you’re right about something, we’ve got you covered. We’ll go through each individual category (including one new one) as we present our picks for what we think will land a spot, as well as three “wildcard” entries that could also move into poll position under the right circumstances. Here are The Friendly Film Fan’s official Oscar nomination predictions for 2026! BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
Nine of these ten seem fairly certain. A Palme d’Or winner, a Cannes darling, a Netflix “indie,” a literally Shakespearean drama, the weird one, the classical monster movie, the one carried (though not entirely) by a showstopper performance, the frontrunner of the season, and the contemporary musical (which doubles as a monster movie) seems like a fairly well-formed lineup for the Best Picture category, and only one thing remains: to find that tenth spot. This is where my previous advice from the Costume Design category comes in full force: never underestimate the Brazilians. Despite both F1 and Weapons putting up solid showings with PGA, and at least the former having a solid shot to make it in this ten, I’ve selected The Secret Agent as my number ten prediction. BEST DIRECTOR Predicted Nominees:
Best Director is one of the other major categories where an out-of-nowhere international contender can show up just as easily as any of the expected five, but even with Joachim Trier not showing up in the DGA five, with Sentimental Value appearing amongst the PGA ten, I have a somewhat hopeful feeling that he does indeed make the lineup this year. Who the international contender turns out to be is anybody’s guess, and there remains a distinct possibility that there is no international feature director who appears amongst these five nominees with Guillermo Del Toro taking that DGA spot, but for now, I believe that even subtler direction can still be recognized, especially with performances this good across the board. BEST ACTRESS Predicted Nominees:
How great is it that Chase Infiniti is going to garner herself an Oscar nomination for her feature film debut? She deserves every bit of awards love she gets, but as has been the case all season, this is a Buckley v. Byrne race, with Buckley firmly in the lead following a career of terrific work leading up to her turn as Agnes in Hamnet. What worries me here, though, is the presence of Kate Hudson in the SAG lineup, and what that might mean if Renate Reinsve is indeed snubbed for a nomination spot in her favor. Reinsve turned in some of the most impressive work of her career this year, and although it’s a quieter performance than her turn in The Worst Person in the World, it’s all the more powerful for it. And if the Academy feels any love at all for The Testament of Ann Lee, it should show up for the film’s well-deserving lead, Amanda Seyfried. BEST ACTOR Predicted Nominees
Wagner Moura needed to win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama to stay in this race at all, and win it he did, cementing his place amongst at least the seven possible Best Actor contenders, even if he may be on the bubble and in definite danger of missing the nod. Still, Fernanda Torres didn’t have a SAG nod to her name and managed to wiggle into the Lead Actress lineup last year without a worry, so there’s a non-zero chance Moura takes the same path, especially with the level of international support he’s received. What I’m hoping is that Joel Edgerton’s quiet turn in Train Dreams somehow manages to make it into the lineup, even if it is at the expense of one of Ethan Hawke’s best performances in years. It’s unlikely that happens, but hey, what if? BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Predicted Nominees:
The SAG nod for Ariana Grande – a recognition they did not give to her castmate Cynthia Erivo this time around – is the only indicator outside of the below-the-line categories that Wicked: For Good has anything to hold onto. That said, with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas sure to find justice for her SAG snub with a nomination here, the battle for last place appears to be between Grande and Odessa A’zion, whose career is enjoying a sharp rise at the moment. Currently, I am giving the edge to Grande, who manages to hold onto at least some of what she brought to the table in the first Wicked film, albeit a pale imitation, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see A’zion swoop in to leave Wicked: For Good relegated only to the tech fields. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Predicted Nominees:
Perhaps the single easiest of the acting races to predict in terms of who makes the lineup, Best Supporting Actor remained an open and shut case for months…until SAG elected to nominate Miles Caton over Stellan Skarsgård in their rush to exclude any international nominees from their newly-named Actor Awards. Nonetheless, with a Golden Globe win already under his belt, and what appears to be a vote-splitting opportunity with the One Battle boys duking it out, Skarsgård appears to be unaffected by the SAG snub and poised to take the lead in this category once more (the Jacob Elordi win at Critics Choice notwithstanding). Truthfully, the bottom two wildcard selections here are more for padding than anything as Miles Caton is the clear number six for this category, but stranger nominations have come out of absolutely nowhere. BEST CASTING Predicted Nominees:
The newest category to be added to the Oscars lineup takes the nomination count from the 23 categories it had been shrunk down to when the sound categories collapsed back to a full 24 (and soon to be 25 with the introduction of the Best Stunts category, which will debut with the 100th anniversary of the awards). Given that this is the first year of its inclusion, there’s not a lot of precedent to rely on for predicting what the nominee field is likely to look like. The closest one can come at the moment is to focus largely on performance ensembles – especially those with deep benches (a look at the SAG Ensemble nominees is helpful here) – and try to game it out from there. My one hope for this category is that the international community comes through for Sentimental Value in the way that SAG refused to; barring that, we’re probably looking at a five for five SAG to Oscars transfer. (I like Frankenstein, but do we really need it here too?) BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Predicted Nominees:
In recent years, animation has sadly become somewhat of a weaker category, with easier to predict wins and easier to predict nominations than ever. That trend continues this year as KPop Demon Hunters looks to dominate both this and the Original Song categories, but what films surround it are also largely unsurprising. Disney’s now highest grossing animated film of all time, Zootopia 2, would be the reasonable second place finisher, with the studio’s Pixar entrant rounding out the lineup in fifth place behind two far more interesting nominees in Arco and Little Amélie. Netflix’s other animated film this year, In Your Dreams, as well as A Magnificent Life, and Sony’s Scarlet, occupy the wildcard slots because, well, something has to, and The Bad Guys 2 – while certainly worthy of some kind of recognition – just doesn’t have the juice to push through the pack. BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Predicted Nominees:
Even more than Best Picture, the most anticipated question of nominations morning seems to be whether Neon will be able to go five for five across the entirety of the International Feature category, a feat no studio (at least none that I’m aware of) has managed to achieve since the category’s introduction. If this were any other Academy, I might be inclined to say this would absolutely not happen, as this category always contains a wildcard that even I don’t see coming much of the time. However, given how calculated Neon has become at awards campaigning, it’s not safe to bet against them…which is exactly what I’m going to do. This may be the only opportunity for The Voice of Hind Rajab – a docu-drama about a Palestinian child calling out for rescue under Israeli fire – to reach the international audience it needs to succeed, and since the Academy has snubbed Park Chan-wook before and we’re due for at least one major blunder in the nominations, I think No Other Choice is the sacrificial lamb here. Perhaps Netflix is the one to oust the South Korean contender with the Taiwanese Left-Handed Girl, but either way, it could well be the case that a full decade passes before we see a Park Chan-wook film among this category’s lineup again. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Predicted Nominees:
Keeping up with the documentary feature contenders throughout the year has been something I’ve prided myself on, but even during my most prolific years of documentary viewing, there’s either been plenty of entrants to the shortlist that I haven’t seen or plenty of docs I have seen that then didn’t make the cut. Luckily, many of these – like their short form counterparts – are also accessible through various streaming services or YouTube, so they’re relatively easy to see. Also, like so many categories this year, there are about four nominees that feel like concrete certainties, and one that could go basically anywhere else. I’ve selected The Alabama Solution as the fifth film, given that Netflix already has The Perfect Neighbor in the mix (so Apocalypse in the Tropics feels redundant if the Academy is trying to spread the love) and Apple has yet to land one of their documentary acquisitions in this category going as far back as 2020. Come See Me in the Good Light is easily their strongest candidate yet, and it has widespread support, so there’s a genuine shot for it to get in, but that Apple stat is hard to ignore with an HBO doc waiting in the wings. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Predicted Nominees:
Hamnet missing the ASC nod this year dealt a crushing blow to Lukas Zal, whom many considered to be firmly in the mix after having been snubbed for his transcendent work on The Zone of Interest, a film which continues to grow more and more relevant as time continues to move forward. It’s not impossible that the Academy elects to nominate him anyway, given Hamnet’s otherwise strong showing, but it seems more likely that the Academy actually goes five for five with the ASC nominees this year, breaking recent precedent of a four for five success rate. As for the win, we’ll have to see how the rest of the season goes, but in my eyes, it’s still Sinners vs. Train Dreams. BEST FILM EDITING Predicted Nominees:
Sometimes the film with the most editing wins this category (Ford v Ferrari), sometimes it does actually go to the best edited film of the year (Everything Everywhere All at Once); in both cases, there’s strong support for both F1 and One Battle After Another, and without the ACE Eddie nominations in hand (those will be revealed next Tuesday), what surprises may be in store are anybody’s guess. For the moment, this is what I think it looks like heading into tomorrow’s announcement. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Predicted Nominees:
It will forever remain strange to me just how weak Avatar: Fire and Ash appears this year when compared to the certainty with which The Way of Water entered the race in 2023. Granted, it had been twelve years since the first Avatar, so a sequel that looked as good as Way of Water did with all its new technology and design work was always going to make a strong showing in the tech categories, but Fire and Ash being on the bubble even without that length of a wait still feels wrong. Nevertheless, on the bubble it is, and anyone who’s still predicting a showing for Fantastic Four: First Steps here – even in the wildcards – should keep in mind that much of the industry seems more passionate about Bugonia than previously thought. BEST COSTUME DESIGN Predicted Nominees:
Costume Design is another slightly tricky category this year, as there are about seven viable candidates, two of which possess a sincere chance at knocking Hamnet out of its spot. Given how the industry appears to adore the film, I’m reticent to remove it from the lineup, but if it were to fall, I believe it would be to Lindsay Pugh’s work in Hedda, which features a more formal style in its costuming. I know this is where many are placing their Testament of Ann Lee or Kiss of the Spider-Woman hopes, but given how both of these were entirely ignored through every shortlist, it's a safe bet to say the Academy likely isn’t giving them any more thought, justifiably or not. What they may be giving thought to, however, is The Secret Agent, as an increasingly international Academy just witnessed it win two Golden Globes, including one for Best Actor (Wagner Moura). There’s only one rule with this new Academy in major categories: never underestimate the Brazilian contingent. BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Predicted Nominees:
Once more, thank god for shortlists; if it weren’t for the Academy’s willingness to share what was in contention for some of these below-the-line categories, I’d have forgotten The Alto Knights and The Ugly Stepsister even released this past year (not that either of them has a shot here, but it’s good to see the latter recognized). That said, there’s also plenty of room for a wildcard move in this category as well. The Academy loves prosthetic work, and while The Smashing Machine features plenty of the more subtle makeup they love to recognize, it doesn’t feature a fat suit; Nuremberg does, and if any of the old Academy still has any power, the Churchill rule should apply here as well. Of course, there’s always a possibility that Kokuho – the Tom Cruise-backed international contender this year from Japan – springs a surprise on us as well. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Predicted Nominees:
Original score is a tricky one; last year, Challengers was snubbed in favor of Wicked: For Good, which I suppose featured a decent bit of original scoring for the film, but most of it sounded like renditions of the Broadway show score anyway, and personally I’d like to not repeat that mistake, so I am hoping with everything in me that Daniel Lopatin’s score for Marty Supreme doesn’t hit a Challengers snag this year. That said, there’s plenty of room for some wildcard madness this time around, so don’t be shocked if Wicked: For Good features as am undeserved repeat. BEST ORIGINAL SONG Predicted Nominees:
And now we come to the category no one actually cares about, but which everyone gets at least one thing right with: a Diane Warren or Diane Warren-adjacent song will keep showing up here until she gets her damn Oscar, locking out more deserving candidates. Of course, it’s possible that “Dear Me” falls at the feet of either Sinners or Wicked: For Good, both of which feature at least one original song already firmly in the mix, but I doubt any of these wildcards have the strength in campaigning to take down the single entrant that almost never misses. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Predicted Nominees:
You’ll notice in many of these races that between three and four spots are more-or-less locked up by a few heavyweight candidates, while spots four and five are up for grabs between two or three films with some true wildcards waiting in the wings. Such is also the case with Adapted Screenplay, which is a two-way battle for spot five between Will Tracy’s script for Bugonia (currently in the lead with some WGA support) and Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice, which to me should be a layup candidate. For the moment, I’ve chosen Bugonia as the safe bet, but don’t be surprised to see No Other Choice show up here if the Academy isn’t going to blank it like they did Decision to Leave a few years ago. BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY Predicted Nominees:
The original screenplay category seems fairly likely to throw a huge curveball our way as Zach Cregger’s Weapons made its way onto a couple of key shortlists. That said, I’m not sure I see it making a large dent here, even if Amy Madigan is all but guaranteed to secure herself a nomination. Still, of the wildcard picks, I think it would be the likeliest to knock Sorry, Baby out of contention, even if I’m not-so-secretly praying that won’t happen. Julia Roberts seems to think highly of Eva Victor’s film. Why shouldn’t the Academy? BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Predicted Nominees:
Every time a new Avatar film releases, this race is over before it begins, but it is still fun to predict what will by riding alongside it, and my big swing this time around comes in the form of Paul Greengrass’ Paradise fire drama, The Lost Bus, which features some thoroughly convincing effects that I believe everyone is underestimating. Of course, there’s always the chance that Frankenstein takes either that spot or the Wicked: For Good one (boy, that movie sank in the rankings quick, huh), but for now, this is where I’m at. BEST SOUND Predicted Nominees:
And now we come to the part of the predictions where people actually start paying attention. Best Sound isn’t especially tricky until one gets into that fifth slot, for which I would personally nominate Avatar: Fire and Ash, but which most sound guilds gave to Mission: Impossible (even the Cinema Audio Society didn’t recognize Avatar). There’s certainly a likelihood that the Tom Cruise action film – which could be the last of its kind – holds onto that sound nod all the way through tomorrow morning, but given the widespread support for Oliver Laxe’s desert rave drama Sirât across a multitude of shortlists and its likelihood of showing up in at least one other major category in this piece, I’ve elected to call the nomination race in its favor. BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT Predicted Nominees:
Even amongst the short form categories, this is the most difficult one to predict. Only two of these films are widely available, so those are the only two I’ve seen. Extremist is the first, which I don’t believe has the juice to push past the eight other contenders listed, but Two People Exchanging Saliva – the second one I’ve seen – would be an inspired choice to bump up from wildcard into the main nominee package. BEST ANIMATED SHORT Predicted Nominees:
Butterfly seems like the easy frontrunner in this category, given how stunningly Butterfly seems like the easy frontrunner in this category, given how stunningly painted it is while also featuring a poignant storyline, but for my money, I’d like to see the adorable Snow Bear or the existentially dreadful Playing God jump up from the wildcard slots into the main pack. Is that just because they’re some of the only ones I’ve been able to see? The answer isn’t “no,” but they are also quality films. BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT Predicted Nominees:
By far the most difficult categories to predict each year are the Shorts; they’re not usually widely accessible during the year, and we know so little about how they’re made and distributed that keeping up with what rises through the ranks is more or less impossible; thank god for the Shortlists the Academy drops each year to help us nail down which ones we should focus on, and which ones we no longer need to track. This yearThis year, most of the documentary short films from the shortlist were actually fairly easy to see; some are still streaming exclusives, like the Netflix frontrunner All the Empty Rooms, but many others – such as The Devil is Busy and Last Days on Lake Trinity – are widely accessible on YouTube just by searching the title. Inevitably, at least one of the shortlisted films that are not widely accessible makes the cut, so this year I’ve put Bad Hostage in that slot (although I did see it last year as part of the IDA awards). What do you think of our predictions? Is there anything we’re underestimating? Overestimating? Which films would you like to see get some love tomorrow morning? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading! - The Friendly Film Fan |