Final 2026 Oscar Winner Predictions

The Friendly Film Fan Selects What Will and What Should Win at the 98th Academy Awards

​Well, the time is finally here. After a long and far too protracted awards season (seriously, Academy, put the Oscars back in late February), we’ve finally arrived at that fateful day. Tomorrow, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will unveil their choices for the best in film of 2025, and we’ll all be there to witness all the triumph, the chaos, and hopefully, a few unexpected surprises. To that end, it’s time for our final round of Oscar predictions for this season. It’s been a doozy from start to finish; some races have been more or less sewn up for months, others still have multiple viable paths to a win for multiple nominees within the same category with no common consensus for what would take the lead if just one more awards ceremony took place prior to this year’s Academy Awards. Historic nomination tallies, dominant awards season runs for multiple films, significant momentum shifts, and a brand new category introduced for this year alone; it’s been exciting, vexing, and all around a far more interesting season than any we’ve had so far this decade. The players are set, and all that’s left to do is see which of them stands to share in the glory and spoils (and which dark horses are waiting in the wings like Lewis Hamilton, ready to fly straight up a split middle at a moment’s notice). One last time, here are our final predictions for the 98th Annual Academy Awards.

​BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Nominees:

• All the Empty Rooms
• Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
• Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
• The Devil is Busy
• Perfectly a Strangeness

Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Should Win: The Devil is Busy
Could Steal: The Devil is Busy
Dark Horse: Perfectly a Strangeness
Should Have Been Nominated: Bad Hostage
 
The shorts categories, by and large, are always a crap shoot if one hasn’t managed to access them all by the time the ceremony starts, and unfortunately that lack of accessibility often translates to the most widely available film in each of the three shorts categories taking the win, rather than what’s actually the best. Luckily, however, the lead contenders for the Best Documentary Short prize this year are both widely accessible, with All the Empty Rooms being on Netflix and The Devil is Busy being on HBO Max. Personally, I’d like to see The Devil is Busy win here, as it’s the most well-rounded film of the bunch, but I wouldn’t bet against the other title either. Netflix has been fairly dominant in this category, even when their winning film was one of the weakest entries, so predicting another win for them here – despite wishing otherwise – seems like the right call.

​BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Nominees:

• Butterfly
• Forevergreen
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls
• Retirement Plan
• The Three Sisters

Will Win: Butterfly
Should Win: Butterfly
Could Steal: Retirement Plan
Dark Horse: The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Should Have Been Nominated: Snow Bear
 
Don’t be surprised if Retirement Plan steals a not-so-slightly unexpected win in this category; it’s the definition of short, so it’s also the most easily digestible of the five, and yet, this branch often likes to go for something deeper, which is why I’m placing my bets on the painted portrait of a holocaust survivor in Butterfly. That said, I wouldn’t underestimate The Girl Who Cried Pearls either; stop motion animation is extremely difficult to pull off, so there’s a chance (albeit miniscule) that the Academy recognizes that difficulty and elects to reward the effort instead.

​BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The Nominees:

• Butcher’s Stain
• A Friend of Dorothy
• Jane Austen’s Period Drama
• The Singers
• Two People Exchanging Saliva

Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Should Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Could Steal: The Singers
Dark Horse: A Friend of Dorothy
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
The “should win” is an easy one here; Two People Exchanging Saliva is the superior film to all the others, even if it’s not the most obvious nominee of the bunch, and given that Netflix is most likely to win the Documentary Shorts category, I find it unlikely – though hardly impossible – that they would go two for two with both All the Empty Rooms and The Singers. Still, stranger things have happened, and let’s not discount A Friend of Dorothy’s sweetness being able to work a number on Academy voters.

BEST SOUND
The Nominees:

• F1
• Frankenstein
• One Battle after Another
• Sinners
• Sirāt

Will Win: F1
Should Win: F1
Could Steal: Sinners
Dark Horse: Sirāt
Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: Avatar: Fire and Ash
 
This choice seems like a simple one, until one remembers just how dominant Sinners is with its nomination tally; there’s a high chance it could steal the spotlight here and shift things in a big way as the night goes on, but the safest bet here is also probably the most assured. The fact of the matter is that sound design in movies about fast vehicles often triumphs in the category, even with a category combining mixing and editing, and F1 is in position one for a win, especially given Joseph Kosinski’s previous film – Top Gun: Maverick – also won in this category.

​BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Nominees:

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1
• Jurassic World Rebirth
• The Lost Bus
• Sinners

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: The Lost Bus
Should Have Been Nominated: Superman
 
Even more than the Best Actress race, this one was over before it ever began. Avatar: Fire and Ash is the most stunning visual effects achievement of the year, and it wouldn’t be a competition even if it only looked just as good as Way of Water, instead of somehow better.

BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY
The Nominees:

• Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon
• Jafar Pahani, It Was Just an Accident
• Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value
• Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Will Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Should Win: Jafar Pahani, It Was Just an Accident or Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Should Have Been Nominated: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
 
If there’s one guaranteed Oscar Ryan Coogler is likely to win, it’s in this category. He’s won the WGA for Original Screenplay, as well as the BAFTA, the HCA, and a host of critics prizes where there is a featured split between original and adapted works. The only loss he’s taken so far was at the Golden Globes, where there’s only one screenplay category that combines both original and adapted; that award went to One Battle after Another, which is not competing in this category at all, so a Sinners win doesn’t just feel likely – it feels inevitable. Still, it’s a shame that the two best original screenplays of the year don’t really stand a chance at overcoming those odds and surprising us all with a true upset. 

​BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Nominees:

• Jang Joon-hwan and Will Tracy, Bugonia
• Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
• Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
• Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another
• Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another
Could Steal: Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Dark Horse: Jang Joo-hwan and Will Tracy, Bugonia
Should Have Been Nominated: Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
 
Much like the category before it, Adapted Screenplay is more or less sewn up tight with a likely win for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, especially as that film occupies the space of the current Best Picture frontrunner. However, if a truly bizarre upset were to occur, Hamnet would be the most likely culprit. Academy voters have a particular fondness for Chloé Zhao’s family tragedy, and with a preferential balloting system driving voting, there’s a non-zero chance that it could pull more votes than we think.

​BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Nominees:

• “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless
• “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters
• “I Lied To You,” Sinners
• “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” Viva Verdi!
• “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams

Will Win: “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: “I Lied to You,” Sinners
Could Steal: “I Lied to You,” Sinners
Dark Horse: “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams
Should Have Been Nominated: “Highest 2 Lowest,” Highest 2 Lowest or “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet," Come See Me in the Good Light
 
With all the momentum flowing in KPop Demon Hunters’ direction, it can be difficult to even conceive of “Golden” losing this award, but personally, I find “I Lied to You” so essential to the story of Sinners that maybe it should win instead. Nevertheless, a mainstream pop hit is a rare thing for the Academy Awards to have in their arsenal, and as one of the only two original songs being performed at the ceremony (likely for the show’s opening), a “Golden” win is their best chance to embrace the mainstream crowd in this category. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Nominees:

• Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia
• Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein
• Max Richter, Hamnet
• Jonny Greenwood, One Battle after Another
• Ludwig Göransson, Sinners

Will Win: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners
Should Win: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Max Richter, Hamnet
Should Have Been Nominated: Daniel Lopatin, Marty Supreme
 
What is with the Academy’s score branch ignoring electronically-based music even when it’s featured in one of the absolute best scores of the year? Marty Supreme should be here, just as Challengers should have been last year, and yet even if it was, no score this year was as memorable or truly original as that of Ludwig Göransson’s for Sinners. Göransson has become somewhat of a force of nature for this category, already having racked up two wins with his Black Panther and Oppenheimer scores, and may well be on his way to a fourth should The Odyssey prove the awards juggernaut it’s believed it could be. That’s a level of repeat success only enjoyed by a rare class of musician, but when the music is this good, who’s complaining about getting more of it?

​BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Nominees:

• Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, & Cliona Furey, Frankenstein
• Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, & Tadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho
• Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, & Shunika Terry, Sinners
• Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, & Bjoern Rehbein, The Smashing Machine
• Thomas Foldberg and Anne Catherine Sauerberg, The Ugly Stepsister

Will Win: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, & Cliona Furey, Frankenstein
Should Win: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, & Cliona Furey, Frankenstein
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Thomas Foldberg and Anne Catherine Sauerberg, The Ugly Stepsister
Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: 28 Years Later
 
Frankenstein and its director, Guillermo Del Toro, are clearly loved by the Academy at large, evidenced by the film’s total tally of 9 nominations – which ties both Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme – most of them in craft categories. Its strongest craft work is the makeup done for Jacob Elordi’s Creature character, and Del Toro’s films are not simply mainstays in this category; they often dominate it. It’s doubtful that the film goes much further than the three awards it’s likely to win as a handsomely mounted production of a classic novel, but those wins will be well-earned nonetheless.

​BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Nominees:

• Deborah L. Scott, Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Kate Hawley, Frankenstein
• Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet
• Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme
• Ruth E. Carter, Sinners

Will Win: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein
Should Win: Ruth E. Carter, Sinners
Could Steal: Ruth E. Carter, Sinners
Dark Horse: Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet
Should Have Been Nominated: Colleen Atwood, One Battle after Another
 
One Battle after Another missing Costume Design but landing a nod in Production Design was a curveball almost no one saw coming, and it’s sad to know that Colleen Atwood’s instantly iconic looks for both Bob and Willa Ferguson will go unrecognized in an official capacity by the Academy. That said, the Avatar: Fire and Ash nomination is an inspired choice; the Ash tribe’s look is crucial to how the audience perceives their intentions, and on displays, those costumes look incredibly intricate and specific. Avatar won’t win though, as this remains one of the three design categories for which Frankenstein is likely to clean house. The Academy loves period pieces when it comes to the design work, and Frankenstein gets the closest to being one that’s more recognizable to a certain crop of voters than anything else on the list does, even if Ruth E. Carter’s designs for Sinners (in my opinion) are the more deserving option. It takes real talent to recycle costumes that were originally going to be part of a now-dead Blade movie and actually accentuate their strengths even further.

​BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Nominees:

• Tamara Deverell, Frankenstein
• Fiona Crombie, Hamnet
• Jack Fisk, Marty Supreme
• Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, One Battle after Another
• Hannah Beachler, Sinners

Will Win: Tamara Deverell, Frankenstein
Should Win: Jack Fisk, Marty Supreme or Hannah Beachler, Sinners
Could Steal: Hannah Beachler, Sinners
Dark Horse: Jack Fisk, Marty Supreme
Should Have Been Nominated: Jørgen Stangebye Larsen, Sentimental Value
 
Another award I personally feel should be going to Sinners for the stunning concept art being brought to life in such tactile and instantly iconic ways, Production Design marks what will likely be the final time we see a Frankenstein win take place. No matter how digital the camera and lighting makes the sets look at times, the breadth of practicality with which Tamara Deverell designed them is impressive. With that in mind, dear Academy who is definitely reading this, let’s not take too much longer to give Jack Fisk an Oscar, okay? That wouldn’t be great.

​BEST FILM EDITING
The Nominees:

• Stephen Mirrione, F1
• Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
• Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another
• Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value
• Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

Will Win: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle after Another
Should Win: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle after Another
Could Steal: Stephen Mirrione, F1
Dark Horse: Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
Gone is the notion that the “most editing” always translates to the “best editing” for the Academy Awards. Not since the days of Ford v Ferrari have we seen a film with the number of cuts F1 has actually win after garnering a nomination, and the focus of the award now seems to be centered on how invisible or how smooth the edit feels over the course of the film. That puts Andy Jurgensen in the best position for his work on One Battle After Another to walk up to the stage and accept the award, although F1’s fast-cutting speed racing may be only tenths of a second behind.

​BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Nominees:

• Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein
• Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme
• Michael Bauman, One Battle after Another
• Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners
• Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams

Will Win: Michael Bauman, One Battle after Another
Should Win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners
Could Steal: Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams
Dark Horse: Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme
Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: Jingsong Dong, Resurrection
 
For a long time, it was believed that Autumn Durald Arkapaw would triumph in the Cinematography category for her stellar work in Sinners, with some suggesting that Adolpho Veloso’s photography in Train Dreams would be the win that dashed those hopes. Then, Michael Bauman started winning awards, the BSC and the ASC specifically, for his VistaVision-shot work on One Battle after Another, some word came out that other DPs were not particular fans of the shadow work in Sinners, and the whole race got flipped on its head. Bauman’s cinematography is excellent, but it’s hard not to feel a bit disappointed that a woman – more specifically a woman of color – was in the lead to win the category, and now just isn’t anymore. In any case, the Academy’s unfortunate erasure of Resurrection from the nominations pool means that Jingsong Dong can never receive his well-deserved flowers for the actual best cinematography of the year.

​BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Nominees:

• The Alabama Solution
• Come See Me in the Good Light
• Cutting Through Rocks
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Should Win: The Alabama Solution
Could Steal: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Dark Horse: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated: My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow or 2000 Meters to Andriivka
 
The Documentary Feature category is a tough one to crack sometimes (especially when it comes to nominations), but this year, there stands one clear frontrunner above all others. The Perfect Neighbor is most likely to win here, and was one of my favorite films of 2025, even if my professional opinion is that The Alabama Solution is a better documentary overall. It helps that the film has been widely accessible to mass audiences since October, while films like Mr. Nobody Against Putin – a fairly solid documentary with some bizarre ethical failings – remains stuck behind one’s needing to rent or purchase it in order to see it, but it doesn’t make up for the fact that both of the two best Russia-centric documentaries this year, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow and 2000 Meters to Andriivka, were left out of the nominations entirely when even one of them making it would have sufficed (personal, I prefer the former).

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
The Nominees:

• The Secret Agent (Brazil)
• It Was Just an Accident (France)
• Sentimental Value (Norway)
• Sirāt (Spain)
• The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Will Win: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Should Win: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Could Steal: The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Dark Horse: Sirāt (Spain)
Should Have Been Nominated*/Submitted**: No Other Choice (South Korea)* or​ Resurrection (China)**
 
What did Park Chan-wook do to the Academy for them to treat him the way they do by refusing to recognize him properly? No Other Choice is one of the director’s best works, and it’s a shame that not only did AMPAS not nominate it in this category, they didn’t nominate it for anything at all (even for one of the screenplay awards). I suppose the idea is that a Korean satire of capitalism and blind ambition driving desperate people to do unseemly things to succeed already won Best Picture in 2020, but why shouldn’t that mean that one can get nominated again? Not even for this? I digress. As for the nominees that are here, people can thank the nine nominations Sentimental Value picked up – including four acting nods – for putting it back in first place after it was feared The Secret Agent could usurp it for the top spot. (R.I.P. Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident; your initial awards momentum will be missed.) However, The Secret Agent is far from dead, and if anything were to take this award away from my personal favorite film of last year, it would likely be the other Best Picture nominee from this category, which also shows up in Best Casting and Best Actor for Wagner Moura. I don’t think it’s likely that it takes the win personally, but it wouldn’t be the craziest upset that could happen this year.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees:

• Arco
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
• Zootopia 2

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
The dominance of KPop Demon Hunters over song and animation categories culminates with this race, in which it has such a huge lead, the other nominees might as well stop running altogether (though they shouldn’t). If it were up to me, I would give this award to Arco or Little Amélie since the frontrunner has some story problems I think bring it down as a narrative experience, but as you’ve probably surmised by now, it’s not up to me. This is the KPop Demon Hunters award, and with news of a newly-announced sequel on the way, the film’s brand shows no signs of slowing down.

​BEST CASTING
The Nominees:

• Nina Gold, Hamnet
• Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme
• Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle after Another
• Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent
• Francine Maisler, Sinners

Will Win: Francien Maisler, Sinners
Should Win: Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme
Could Steal: Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle after Another
Dark Horse: Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent
Should Have Been Nominated: Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman, Sentimental Value
 
The newest category to be added to the Oscars slate, Best Casting is one category where I’m not really sure what to expect or what it’s supposed to look like in practice. The prevailing theory is that Sinners’ win at SAG for Best Ensemble could easily translate to a win here, but a Best Ensemble award and a Best Casting award aren’t quite the same thing, which leaves a lot of room for wiggle room for another candidate to take home the win. Marty Supreme and The Secret Agent are front of mind in this regard, as both films’ use of non-actors and industry vets stretching different screen muscles do a lot to lift their narratives surrounding the category. Whatever the category looks like once the fab five chosen for it are actually up on stage, it wouldn’t be the wisest thing to bet against Sinners here.

​BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees:

• Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
• Delroy Lindo, Sinners
• Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Will Win: Sean Penn, One Battle after Another
Should Win: Sean Penn, One Battle after Another or Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Could Steal: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Dark Horse: Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Should Have Been Nominated: Paul Mescal, Hamnet
 
Despite rumors circling that Delroy Lindo could pull a Marcia Gay Harden and win the category in a major upset without any precursor wins to speak of, Best Supporting Actor still feels like a two-horse race to me, and which horse one bets on depends on whether one thinks the Academy is more eager to reward legacy or showiness. Stellan Skarsgård, whose work has been highly lauded for decades and who ascends to new heights in Sentimental Value, has both the Golden Globe and  the fact that he’s never won an Oscar before behind him; the Academy could see this as their chance to reward him not just for one of his absolute best performances, but a long career of great work (plus, with no international nominees appearing in the SAG nominations at all, it’s not as though Sean Penn had Skarsgård to compete against). To his credit, Delroy Lindo does share a similar narrative as far as legacy is concerned, so dismissing him entirely wouldn’t be smart. On the other hand, Sean Penn did win at the BAFTAs – an international awards show – and at the SAG Awards, which suggests a great deal of strength in this category, and we know this Academy does not care about rewarding repeat winners if the performance is strong enough (see Adrien Brody and Emma Stone), so a third Sean Penn win is far from out of the question. With One Battle after Another unlikely to pick up another acting win besides this one, I’ve elected to stick with Sean Penn as the most likely winner over Skarsgård, though I truly will be fine with a win for either one. It’s just a shame Paul Mescal’s achingly vulnerable supporting turn in Hamnet couldn’t quite crack this group of five.

​BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees:

• Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan, Weapons
• Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
• Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Will Win: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Could Steal: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Dark Horse: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Should Have Been Nominated: Miriam Afshari, It Was Just an Accident
 
Most people were shocked, myself included, when Elle Fanning’s name came up as the Supporting Actress nominees were announced; with little to no precursor nominations to speak of, including a miss at SAG for the only American cast member in Sentimental Value, it didn’t seem like she would overcome the international shutout in the same way that the film’s other principal actors would once the international Academy got a hold of their nominee submissions. Fanning’s work in Sentimental Value is some of the absolute best of her career, so her inclusion here isn’t nothing, but neither do I think of her as the supporting actress from the film with the best chance at a win. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, though she’s been working for many years in much smaller fare, is a real discovery for worldwide audience members, and sometimes a great “come out of nowhere” performance like hers can attract enough support to pull off a win in this category. The two lead contenders, though, are Amy Madigan (SAG and Critics’ Choice winner in this category) and Wunmi Mosaku (BAFTA winner). Teyana Taylor is still very much in the mix, but with no significant wins since the Golden Globes, she’s sitting in a comfortable third place right next to Lilleaas. Neither SAG nor Critics’ Choice match up perfectly with this category historically, but neither does BAFTA, so who wins between Madigan and Mosaku is more likely to come down to who has the momentum at any given time. There is a long history of the Academy awarding Best Supporting Actress to the sole nominee attached to a film, as is the case with Madigan and Weapons, and the instant Halloween icon that is Aunt Gladys is nothing to sneeze at, but with an increasingly international Academy unlikely to consider Madigan’s legacy in American films as a data point, and Sinners holding the all-time nomination tally, I’ve selected Wunmi Mosaku as my choice for a win. It’s a risky move if one considers the math of it more important than the vibes, but I’ve got an instinct that Mosaku’s rising star over the past few years – especially as more people have gotten a chance to catch up to her stellar performance in the Netflix film His House – may just line up with the number of votes needed to swing into winning position.

​BEST ACTOR
The Nominees:

• Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
• Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Could Steal: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle after Another
Should Have Been Nominated: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams or Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
 
The category giving every awards prognosticator the migraine of a lifetime amongst the thrill of unknowability, Best Actor is anybody’s guess for who takes home the gold this year. On the one hand, Timothée Chalamet’s resurfaced comments on ballet and opera didn’t quite go viral before voting closed and of the five nominees, he’s the only one to hold two major wins with both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards locked up; on the other hand, Chalamet’s momentum was already slowing when Michael B. Jordan won the Best Actor award at SAG smack in the middle of Oscar voting, and Jordan’s been working steadily in the industry since he was a kid on HBO’s The Wire, and came extremely close to a nomination for his work in Coogler’s other Best Picture-nominated film, Black Panther, so he’s got a long legacy of great work behind him to boost his chances. Plus, Chalamet’s Golden Globe win is shared with Wagner Moura since the lead acting categories for that show are split into Drama and Musical or Comedy, so it’s not as though he was going up against Moura directly, and one wonders if he would have triumphed in an industry-centered head-to-head fight.

​Also, there is one interesting wrinkle to the whole race; according to The Big Picture podcast co-host Sean Fennessy, there has been some speculation floating around that Leonardo DiCaprio was probably in second place for a BAFTA win, which ultimately went to Robert Aramayo for the British Tourette’s drama I Swear, a non-starter for the Academy Awards. The BAFTA Best Actor winner has lined up with an Oscars win nine out of the last ten years (prior to this season), and even though stats and math don’t matter as much to this new Academy (so DiCaprio already having an Oscar may not be a factor), that’s a hard level of consistency to ignore. Then again, one should never underestimate the international contingent, and especially the Brazilian portion of that contingent, in boosting their films and stars to success; a Wager Moura win here is unlikely, but with the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a drama, the likely vote-splitting between Chalamet and Jordan, and the fact that the Brazilian lead acting contender last year – Fernanda Torres – did not ultimately win her category despite strong momentum going into the race, there’s a narrow but very clear path for Moura to correct that record. Whatever happens, whoever wins, only one certainty remains abundantly, absolutely clear: this one is a nail-biter all the way to the finish.

​BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees:

• Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
• Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone, Bugonia

Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Should Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Could Steal: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Dark Horse: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Should Have Been Nominated: Chase Infiniti, One Battle after Another or Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
 
At least there’s one acting prize that’s not up in the air going into Oscar night. Jessie Buckley is winning this category for her stellar, soul-bearing performance in Hamnet, and it’s not an especially close race (even though I would personally love to see a Rose Byrne win more for her thornier, more bracing performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). Buckley has been in the lead all season and shows no signs of slowing down at all, having built a steady body of great work for nearly a decade on which she’s been able to climb towards the top of the mountain, and now she’s reached the summit with the industry ready to place a crown on her head and gold in her hand; it’s a near-identical playbook to the one that got Sean Baker a five-win package for Anora last year. Hamnet is very much Buckley’s film before it’s anyone else’s, and if she’s not giving the performance she is, the film doesn’t quite pull off the intended effect on its audience. Congratulations, Jessie Buckley; you have nothing to prove, and yet, you’ve proved it all anyway.

​BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees:

• Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
• Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
• Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
• Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
• Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another
Could Steal: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Dark Horse: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated: Bi Gan, Resurrection
 
This race is more or less an open and shut case. Even if one were to believe an upset is possible (and it is possible), the likelihood of anyone in this category taking down Paul Thomas Anderson is so low it’d be foolish to predict it, even if Ryan Coogler is the only other person in the category who could. Each of these candidates would be worthy of their own award in any other year (and some have won this category before), but the legacy of PTA’s filmography, the fact that he doesn’t have a single Oscar yet, the DGA win, PGA win, and a host of other factors all point to the same conclusion: PTA will win Best Director following a very good night for One Battle after Another – including a win in Best Adapted Screenplay for PTA – and our next category will be just about sewn up. 

BEST PICTURE
The Nominees:

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

Will Win: One Battle after Another
Should Win: One Battle after Another
Could Steal: Sinners
Dark Horse: Sentimental Value
Should Have Been Nominated: It Was Just an Accident
 
The ultimate showdown of this year comes down to exactly two films: One Battle after Another and Sinners, both of which are some of their respective directors most widely acclaimed films, and both of which had stellar box office runs during their main releases this past year, which means they were both widely seen. There are paths for either one to take a win, especially in a Director/Picture split, but the ultimate victory simply comes down to where Academy members place them on a preferential ballot, and which path holds more sway. Both have stellar win packages as they approach the finish line. Sinners has SAG Ensemble, a WGA win for Original Screenplay, a SAG Best Actor win for Michael B. Jordan, an ACE Eddie award, and the most Oscar nominations of all time, a Best Picture package as concrete as there’s ever been. Then again, One Battle after Another has…well, basically everything else – PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE Eddie, ASC, even some makeup and costume design awards for contemporary film; so far, it’s had the most dominant run for a Best Picture nominee in Oscars history. Should a split happen, leading to a Sinners win, it would be one the largest upsets ever from a pure data perspective. However, the likeliest outcome is also the one I’ve gone with here, and the one I personally think should happen: One Battle after Another will win the big one, and Ryan Coogler’s Oscar will be for his near-guaranteed win in Original Screenplay.

And those are our predictions for the 98th Annual Academy Awards! What do you think is going to take home the gold? Are you as shaky as we are in Best Actor? Any surprises you’re hoping for? Let us know in the comments section below, and stay tuned for our full recap of the 2026 Oscars on Monday, March 16! Thanks for reading!
 
- The Friendly Film Fan