Final Oscar Predictions - 2025 Academy Awards

The Friendly Film Fan Selects What Will and What Should Win at 97th Annual Ceremony.

​by Jacob Jones

​Greetings all, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! We are one mere day away from the 97th Annual Academy Awards and the end of a very long and chaotic awards season. Front-runners have come and gone, momentum has shifted dramatically from where it once was, and entire years have passed in the broader socio-political atmosphere between January 1 and well, today. With all that said, there is one final task ahead of us, and that’s to make our guesses for what will take home the gold tomorrow night. We’ll go category-by-category, the same as we did with our nomination predictions, and offer up our Will Wins and our Should Wins, as well as the Could Steals that might take things home in a toss-up, Dark Horses not nearly enough people are paying attention to, and at least one or more films that should have been nominated per category (excluding the shorts due to their relative obscurity during the course of the year).

​BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Nominees:

• Death by Numbers
• I Am Ready, Warden
• Incident
• Instruments of a Beating Heart
• The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Should Win: Instruments of a Beating Heart
Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Could Steal: Incident
Dark Horse: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
While I unfortunately didn’t get an opportunity to see Death by Numbers, initial research indicates that it may not have had a very strong chance of winning this category anyway, despite its deeply complicated subject matter (then again, with my luck, it could end up winning anyway). All signs point to I Am Ready, Warden as the eventual victor in this category, but while I certainly hold the opinion that the imperfect and deeply complex short doc would not be an unworthy winner on the whole, our hearts remain with Instruments of a Beating Heart, which follows a young girl as she overcomes obstacles both mental and emotional, learning alongside maybe the most supportive group of children I’ve ever encountered to take joy in the small triumphs. It may be the simplest of the nominees by a long shot in terms of its subject matter, but that doesn’t mean it’s not also the most effective at telling its story.

​BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Nominees:

• Beautiful Men
• In the Shadow of the Cypress
• Magic Candies
• Wander to Wonder
• Yuck!

Should Win: N/A
Will Win: Wander to Wonder
Could Steal: In the Shadow of the Cypress
Dark Horse: Beautiful Men
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
All momentum here points to Wander to Wonder winning this category, but given the metaphors present in In the Shadow of the Cypress, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it take home the gold either. In a not particularly strong category this year, either would be a worthy winner.

​BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The Nominees:

• A Lien
• Anuja
• I’m Not a Robot
• The Last Ranger
• The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Should Win: N/A
Will Win: A Lien
Could Steal: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Dark Horse: The Last Ranger
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
I was admittedly unable to see both The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent and The Last Ranger due to schedule constraints and lack of general availability outside of theaters, and the live-action shorts are always the hardest to find when the Oscars shortlists are first released in December, so I’ll abstain from a “Should Win/Should Have Been Nominated” in this category. That said, I do have a particular favorite of the three I did see, and that’s A Lien, which came along at just the right time in Oscar voting post-inauguration for us to be confident that it can win the category given its subject and the scathing block of text which appears at its end. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if either The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent or The Last Ranger took the award home, or even if Mindy Kaling and Netflix had enough campaign power with Anuja that none of my current choices actually grabbed the gold. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see.

BEST SOUND
The Nominees:

• A Complete Unknown
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• Wicked
• The Wild Robot

Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: The Wild Robot
Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: Civil War or Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
 
Despite the presence of no less than three musically-driven movies, this award remains poised to go to Dune: Part Two without a flight of doubt. I did put The Wild Robot in the Dark Horse spot in the unlikely event things go incredibly sideways, but there’s basically no chance of that happening, so if need be, its chances in this category can be entirely disregarded (but its presence here is important for its chances of winning Best Animated Feature).

​BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Nominees:

• Alien: Romulus
• Better Man
• Dune: Part Two
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
• Wicked

Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Steal: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Dark Horse: Wicked
Should Have Been Nominated: Civil War
 
The five selections for VFX this year were almost a done deal before the nominations even happened, so there’s little room for a surprise winner either, given Dune: Part Two’s gargantuan success in both this category and Best Sound up to now with various other guild awards and critics groups. If one film were to take the award away, it should be Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, especially given the more recent Apes films all lost the award to larger movies released in the same years they were released, but I’d advise caution on underestimating the Academy’s love for Wicked here, so if there is to be an egregious upset, don’t be surprised to see that film at the mic.

​BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY
The Nominees:

• Sean Baker, Anora
• Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist
• Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
• Tim Fehlbaum & Moritz Binder, September 5
• Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Should Win: Sean Baker, Anora or Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Could Steal: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Dark Horse: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Should Have Been Nominated: Justin Kuritzkes, Challengers
 
The original screenplay category this year is also more-or-less what was expected, though for some time there was a question of whether Challengers or September 5 would take that fifth slot, or indeed if the Academy would have the stones to nominate a hard-genre body horror extravaganza like The Substance, a subgenre they typically avoid at all costs. The unfortunate consequence of September 5’s presence here is Challengers’ absence, one of too many for this year’s Oscars. The toss-up is between Sean Baker’s Anora and Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain, both written and directed by each of them respectively, and even at this late stage of the race, it’s unknown just how strong each of them is. Anora has the Best Picture momentum behind it, as well as numerous other accolades including a WGA win in this category, but A Real Pain did just take home the Indie Spirit Award and the BAFTA win, so there’s a chance it takes the category after all. Watch out for The Substance, though, especially with the Best Actress momentum it has, and the fact that it got nominated in Picture and Director; body horror may not be the Academy’s thing, but women’s issues and bodily autonomy are, and a win in Best Screenplay at the Cannes film festival doesn’t mean nothing with an increasingly international voting body.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Nominees:

• James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A Complete Unknown
• Peter Straughan, Conclave
• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
• RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
• Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, & John “Divine G.” Whitfield, Sing Sing

Should Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave, RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys, or Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, & John “Divine G.” Whitfield, Sing Sing
Will Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
Should Have Been Nominated: Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
 
This category seems tightly shut, as nothing has yet been able to oust Conclave from a victory in Adapted Screenplay at any awards ceremony for which it was deemed eligible. Its only real challenger would be Nickel Boys, which took home the WGA prize, but even that would be a longshot, as Conclave was not eligible for a WGA nomination due to the organization’s submission rules. I’d be happy to see it go to Sing Sing as well, but given how that film was more or less forgotten by the Academy and its distribution studio’s own marketing department, it’s an even longer shot than Nickel Boys. Still, as long as Emilia Pérez loses here, I’m fine with just about any other winner (though A Complete Unknown – while surprising – would be kind of a boring upset choice).

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Nominees:

• “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez
• “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight
• “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing
• “Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez
• “Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late

Should Win: “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight
Will Win: “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez
Could Steal: “Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez
Dark Horse: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: “Claw Machine,” I Saw the TV Glow
 
This is “El Mal’s” award to lose unfortunately, so it would be foolish to predict an upset from anything in this category except perhaps “Mi Camino,” but even then, it’s highly unlikely that the single scene safeguarding Zoe Saldaña’s eventual Oscar win from slipping away leaves the Dolby empty-handed. This is just one of two awards Emilia Pérez is practically guaranteed this year, and given all the blowback the film has begotten recently, it may be one of only two the Academy will ever be willing to acknowledge. That said, in a weaker field than usual this year for the Oscars’ weakest non-shorts category, “The Journey” provides an opportunity for the Academy to finally reward category mainstay Diane Warren, once and for all ending the need to keep nominating songs from movies far below the Academy’s standard of quality and guaranteeing them Oscars attention. Of course, it helps that it’s one of only two songs in the category I can even remember the main themes to, but really, it would just be a relief not to have to withhold a spot from a more deserving song next year just so Warren can lose a seventeenth time.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Nominees:

• Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist
• Volker Bertelmann, Conclave
• Clément Ducol & Camille, Emilia Pérez
• John Powell & Stephen Schwartz, Wicked
• Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot

Should Win: Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist
Could Steal: Volker Bertelmann, Conclave
Dark Horse: John Powell & Stephen Schwartz, Wicked
Should Have Been Nominated: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, Challengers
 
I could rant and rave for hours about Dune: Part Two’s score being rendered ineligible for even a nomination in this category despite Wicked landing a nod, but with Challengers also being egregiously snubbed out of the game despite Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross’ immaculate work, I’ll chalk those two terrible choices up to a desperately needed overhaul of the entire Academy music branch. It seems like a forgone conclusion, in Challengers’ absence, that this award will go to Daniel Blumberg for his incredible symphonic work on The Brutalist (a score by which we now train our cats to wait for breakfast), a well deserved win for easily the best score in this category. There’s an outside chance that Volker Bertelmann could win his second Oscar for Conclave, but realistically speaking, who wouldn’t want to hear those Brutalist overture horns when Blumberg’s name is called?

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Nominees:

• A Different Man
• Emilia Pérez
• Nosferatu
• The Substance
• Wicked

Should Win: The Substance
Will Win: The Substance
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Emilia Pérez
Should Have Been Nominated: Dune: Part Two
 
The easiest award to predict of the night by a country mile, there’s no chance anything but The Substance wins here. Perhaps Emilia Pérez could pull off one of the worst upsets in Oscars history, but we wouldn’t bet on it. The real crime here is how the Academy seemed to forget that just because Austin Butler doesn’t have hair in Dune: Part Two doesn’t mean the film’s Makeup & Hairstyling chances are rendered moot. 

​BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Nominees:

• Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown
• Lisy Christi, Conclave
• David Crossman and Janty Yates, Gladiator II
• Linda Muir, Nosferatu
• Paul Tazewell, Wicked

Should Win: Paul Tazewell, Wicked
Will Win: Paul Tazewell, Wicked
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Nominated: Jacqueline West, Dune: Part Two
 
Yet another terrible snub for Dune: Part Two, which produced some of the most iconic costume designs in sci-fi history, not the least of which are the Reverend Mothers’ robes and Florence Pugh’s various outfits throughout the film. Perhaps the thinking here is that so much of the primary costuming – namely the stillsuits – was already introduced in Part One that there wasn’t enough new material to garner a nomination, but I digress. In any case, this is Wicked’s award to lose, but  would caution readers not to underestimate the Academy’s clear passion for A Complete Unknown, a film with far less elaborate costuming that still captures an iconic era in American music rather well.

​BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Nominees:

• Judy Becker, The Brutalist
• Patrice Vermette, Dune: Part Two
• Suzie Davies, Conclave
• Craig Lathrop, Nosferatu
• Nathan Crowley, Wicked

Should Win: Judy Becker, The Brutalist or Nathan Crowley, Wicked
Will Win: Nathan Crowley, Wicked
Could Steal: Judy Becker, The Brutalist
Dark Horse: Craig Lathrop, Nosferatu
Should Have Been Nominated: Arthur Max, Gladiator II
To be honest, I’m not quite sure why Gladiator II was passed over for Production Design, even if AMPAS doesn’t seem to have a ton of love for it in the first place. Could Conclave’s momentum be such that we all underestimated just how liked it is by most of the Academy? I’d like to see either The Brutalist or Wicked take this award home, as both have some spectacular production design on display, the earlier for period design and the latter for fantasy. Still, Wicked seems to have the edge here, so I’m inclined to predict it, even if an upset by The Brutalist wouldn’t surprise me at all.

BEST FILM EDITING
The Nominees:

• Sean Baker, Anora
• Dávid Janscó, The Brutalist
• Nick Emerson, Conclave
• Juliette Welfling, Emilia Pérez
• Myron Kerstein, Wicked

Should Win: Nick Emerson, Conclave
Will Win: Nick Emerson, Conclave
Could Steal: Sean Baker, Anora
Dark Horse: Dávid Janscó, The Brutalist
Should Have Been Nominated: Joe Walker, Dune: Part Two
 
How many times can I see in one predictions piece that Dune: Part Two was egregiously snubbed in almost half the tech categories Part One managed to win for? Joe Walker’s god-tier editing being passed over just so the Academy can over-nominate Emilia Pérez again and again or hand Wicked a nomination it doesn’t deserve should be a criminal offense in all established entertainment law, and I will never forgive the editor’s branch this breach of trust. That said, either Anora or Conclave would be worthy winners, though I would personally prefer the latter, and do believe that it will take home the award, if only due to the larger ones Anora is almost sure to receive later on.

​BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Nominees:

• Lol Crowley, The Brutalist
• Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two
• Paul Guihaume, Emilia Pérez
• Edward Lachmann, Maria
• Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu

Should Win: Lol Crawley, The Brutalist or Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu
Will Win: Lol Crowley, The Brutalist
Could Steal: Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu
Dark Horse: Edward Lachmann, Maria
Should Have Been Nominated: Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Challengers and Jomo Fray, Nickel Boys
 
Once again, what about the cinematography in Emilia Pérez makes it so special that the Academy not only gives it a nomination, but outright ignores Nickel Boys’ novel approach to telling its story, or bypasses the insane creative choices in Challengers altogether? If you’ve watched the film, you already know what the answer is. If you haven’t, here’s the answer: not a damn thing. And despite Greig Fraser’s previous win in this category for Dune Part One, it’s unlikely that this becomes a repeat Oscar with momentum pointing to The Brutalist for a win here. Personally, I’d like to see this go to Nosferatu, which is full of incredible photography, and demonstrates to studios everywhere that you can do nighttime/dark scenes while still being able to see what’s going on; you just have to know how to light your sets.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Nominees:

• Black Box Diaries
• No Other Land
• Porcelain War
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
• Sugarcane

Should Win: No Other Land or Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Will Win: No Other Land
Could Steal: Porcelain War
Dark Horse: Sugarcane
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
There are a few documentaries from the shortlists that I have yet to catch up to as of this writing – The Bibi Files, Daughters, Frida, and Porcelain War are the missing pieces, with the last of them being particularly hard to find – but from what I’m able to gather, we may be in for a situation wherein No Other Land, which still lacks U.S. distribution, becomes the winner here, especially due to the amount of abstains Academy members have admitted to giving this category this year, leaving the more passionate documentary viewers with the majority power in the voting. Of course, being too hopeful for a win for that film can be dangerous, especially as Porcelain War did win the DGA for Documentary Filmmaking, and garnered a PGA nomination (although it lost to Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, which did not make the Oscars shortlist). It seems probable that if enough of the Academy simply hasn’t watched No Other Land – or worse, refuses to – Porcelain War could end up taking the victory. It would be neat to see Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat win here, as it’s my personal favorite doc of the year, but I wouldn’t count on it.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
The Nominees:

• Emilia Pérez (France)
• Flow (Latvia)
• The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
• I’m Still Here (Brazil)
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

Should Win: Flow (Latvia) or I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Could Steal: Emilia Pérez (France)
Dark Horse: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
As I have not gotten to watch all of the International films on the shortlist either, I’m abstaining from picking a “Should Have Been Nominated” in this category, and throwing my weight behind both Flow, which hails from Latvia, and the incredible I'm Still Here, which has the most passionate fanbase for an international film I have seen since Parasite, managing to push it all the way into Best Picture out of seemingly nowhere (pro tip: never underestimate Brazilians). Either would be a worthy winner, but it seems like the latter has all the momentum behind it right now, especially with a Best Actress nomination for Fernanda Torres to show for it. If it can manage a win over Emilia Pérez, I won’t necessarily be shocked, but I will be delighted.

​BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees:

• Flow
• Inside Out 2
• Memoir of a Snail
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Foul
• The Wild Robot

Should Win: Flow
Will Win: Flow
Could Steal: The Wild Robot
Dark Horse: Memoir of a Snail
Should Have Been Nominated: Transformers One
 
Let’s be real: Transformers One didn’t have a shot at a nomination here, despite being one of the six or seven best animated films released last year, mostly due to its being ignored basically everywhere up to that point, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t have been a worthy contender anyway. Personally, I would have swapped Inside Out 2 for it, but the power of Disney and Pixar is so ubiquitous at this point, I’m already predicting Elio to garner a nomination next year. The Wild Robot’s reach is so long I’m not sure Flow's chances are quite enough to overcome DreamWorks’ most popular and beloved animated film in over a decade, but The Friendly Film Fan is a place for hope, so at the risk of an imperfect below-the-line ballot, I'm predicting that as a small upset (plus, it does give the Academy a chance to acknowledge international animation outside of the Shorts categories, which isn't nothing). To be clear, I’d be fine with either of them winning, but the themes in Flow put it a step above for me personally, and I’d love to see that little black cat get some well-deserved love for navigating its complex ideas so beautifully.

​BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees:

• Yura Borisov, Anora
• Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
• Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
• Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
• Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Should Win: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist or Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Nominated: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
 
For a minute, it didn’t seem as though that fifth spot in this category had any concrete candidate. Jonathan Bailey landed the SAG nod, but so did Jeremy Strong, whereas Guy Pearce was the one who missed out for his work in The Brutalist, so which would prevail with the Academy? Then, just before nominations were due to be announced, there was a slight surge in momentum for The Apprentice, bolstered by the increasingly international Academy, and widening the voting field of view yielded slightly different results to come up with a five I was comfortable with, despite knowing that meant Clarence Maclin would get unfairly passed over for his incredible performance in Sing Sing. Personally, I think Pearce or Strong should be walking away with this, but it’s a foregone conclusion after his awards season sweep that Kieran Culkin will bring A Real Pain its only guaranteed award of the night. It’s a terrific performance in an otherwise just pretty great movie, but I just find myself more impressed with the ones I already mentioned (apart from Jonathan Bailey).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees:

• Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
• Ariana Grande, Wicked
• Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
• Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
• Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Should Win: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown or Ariana Grande, Wicked
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Nominated: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys or Margaret Qualley, The Substance
 
Nominations in Best Supporting Actress weren’t easy to predict. Would the Academy forget about Felicity Jones due to not watching the second half of The Brutalist? Did Isabelle Rossellini have enough impact in her short amount of screen time to stick in voters’ minds? Could Monica Barbaro become to first member of Top Gun: Maverick’s supporting cast to garner a performance Oscar nomination following that film’s release? We all got our answers once the nominees were announced, but it is a shame that at least one or two of those answers came at the expense of both Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor’s soulful work in Nickel Boys and Margaret Qualley’s career-best work in The Substance. Either would have been a worthy contender in this category, but just like with Best Supporting Actor, the awards season clean sweep is sure to culminate in Zoe Saldaña taking home the award for being the only part of Emilia Pérez actually worth any Oscar nominations at all (and we can all still pretend it’s actually for her work as Neytiri in the Avatar films).

BEST ACTOR
The Nominees:

• Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
• Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
• Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Should Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Will Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Could Steal: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Dark Horse: Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
While Timothée Chalamet did end up taking home the SAG award for Best Actor for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, voting for the Oscars had already closed by the time that ceremony aired, so his true-to-self, frank speech wouldn’t have won over any voters despite how refreshing it likely was for actors to hear one of their own state that actually, he is trying to be counted among the greats. It’s not impossible that Chalamet is that film’s sole win of the night, especially not with the press run he’s been on lately (one of the all-time great press runs in recent memory for a single performer) and the fact that he’d be the youngest winner ever – breaking the record set by fellow nominee Adrien Brody in 2003 – but this new Academy has been showing us since Olivia Colman’s surprise Best Actress win back in 2019 that it doesn’t necessarily care what precedent or narrative works best, or even whether someone’s won an Oscar already (remember Emma Stone last year?). Brody’s performance is simply undeniable, his best since he won in 2003 for The Pianist, and I find it highly unlikely that the A.I. accent non-troversy actually affected many Academy members who were planning on voting for him anyway. Still, in a toss-up where both candidates end up cancelling each other’s votes, watch out for Sebastian Stan’s banner year to sneak in a major upset here, if there is to be one at all.

BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees:

• Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
• Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
• Mikey Madison, Anora
• Demi Moore, The Substance
• Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Should Win: Mikey Madison, Anora or Demi Moore, The Substance
Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Could Steal: Mikey Madison, Anora or Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Dark Horse: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
 
Not only should Marianne Jean-Baptiste be nominated in this category, she should be in the lead for a win (and if you read our 2025 Friendly Film Fan Awards, you know true justice was done there). Personally, I’d be okay with either Mikey Madison or Demi Moore taking this one, and with her SAG award in hand, it looks like Demi Moore is finally going to get her flowers (though don’t be shocked if Mikey Madison’s BAFTA win comes in handy here). There’s not really a Dark Horse candidate in this race anymore what with the brand-new controversies Karla Sofía Gascón seems to hand the Emilia Pérez PR team every other day, but if Fernanda Torres managed to capture a split-vote decision up the middle to take the stage, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. She is incredible in I’m Still Here, and it would be just as worthy a win as the other two likely candidates.

BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees:

• Sean Baker, Anora
• Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
• James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
• Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Should Win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Could Steal: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Dark Horse: James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Nominated: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
 
The Academy has snubbed Denis Villeneuve in Best Director for his Dune films in favor of far less worthy candidates twice. Let’s read that again. The Academy Awards has snubbed Denis Villeneuve in Best Director for his Dune films in favor of far less worthy candidates…TWICE. At this point, I’m expecting them to blank out on nominations for Dune: Messiah altogether. Regardless, Brady Corbet should be winning this award for bringing such an extraordinary vision to life on such a small budget with such an epic scope, and there’s a small chance he still does take the win in a split Director/Picture ceremony, as the Academy has been known to do more than a few times recently. However, with the DGA win having gone to Sean Baker for his direction of Anora, and given his star has finally risen to the mainstream, it seems likely that the Academy will finally “anoint” him with a win here not only for that film but for his body of work up to now, the same way they did Christopher Nolan last year despite his already having major mainstream success beforehand. Still, the real point of this category is that the Academy has snubbed Denis Villeneuve in Best Director for his Dune films in favor of far less worthy candidates…twice. (Also, who did Luca Guadagnino piss off at AMPAS to get both of his films this year and all of his films since Call Me By Your Name completely ignored in every category?)

BEST PICTURE
The Nominees:

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance
• Wicked

Should Win: Anora, The Brutalist, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, or The Substance
Will Win: Anora
Could Steal: The Brutalist or Conclave
Dark Horse: A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Nominated: Sing Sing
 
There are more than a few worthy contenders in Best Picture this year, give or take an Emilia Pérez stinking up the whole row, but with its PGA victory well in hand, Anora seems poised to take this win all the way to the finish line. Personally, I would like to see The Brutalist take it, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Conclave slowly crawl its way to a win here, but given Edward Berger was left out of Best Director, without an ensemble award to anchor it, the only way it could achieve success would be to pull a Spotlight, winning only Screenplay and Picture – tough, but not impossible, especially with its recent wins at SAG and BAFTA. The most interesting wins in terms of what Best Picture means to the filmmaking world as a whole and the doors those wins would open would come from a victory for Nickel Boys or The Substance, but the latter is still an unusual thing for the Academy to nominated in the first place, and the former barely squeaked in with only an Adapted Screenplay nomination to its name outside of this field. Even an I’m Still Here win would make for a rather interesting result, as it would indicate that the internationality of the Academy is far stronger than previously thought. All that said, Sing Sing’s absence from this field is a travesty, especially considering more than a few Academy members have outright admitted to simply not having watched it at all. In any just world, it wouldn’t simply be a nominee, it would be a Moonlight-esque nominee with a real shot at taking down the big candidates for a surprise win. Alas, A24 dropped the ball on its release; a summer window may have actually helped it stay in the conversation.

And those are our predictions for the 97th Annual Academy Awards! What are you predicting to take home the gold? Anything you’re hoping pulls off an upset? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading!
 
- The Friendly Film Fan