RIDICULOUSLY EARLY OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS – ACADEMY AWARDS 2021

​Hello, all, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan once again! I do apologize that I haven’t been as active on this blog as I would have liked over the past few weeks – I have been catching up on a bunch of movies from this year that I hadn’t seen yet, writing for Bitesize Review, and desperately hoping that the results of the U.S. Presidential election aren’t going to make me consider making a bid for Toronto, Canada at some point in the near future. (I pray it doesn’t happen.) Beyond all of that, plus working my day job, I haven’t had much time to squeeze in full reviews of a lot of things, or keep up with a lot of the movie news coverage beyond which movies have been getting delayed, and which movies are just now starting to ramp up production. But hey, we get a Spider-Man 3 teaser next month, so that’s nice! A fourth installment of Mini Reviews is pending, so keep an eye out for that, and more full reviews coming just as soon as I can get the time (as well as the official announcement of a very special new thing that I’ve been working on for months).

​So, the Oscars. I love them. Any time that anyone asks me what my favorite season is, the answer is and always shall be “Oscar season.” Normally, this would take place sometime between early October and the first week of January, but, y’know, *gestures loudly at everything*. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic ravaging all manner of arts industries across the world, and the movie industry existing underneath that umbrella, many of the films we expected to see by now have been delayed, whether indefinitely or to a future date sometime next year. This includes many of the larger movies which were expected to compete in more technical categories, such as Marvel’s Black Widow and Eternals, as well as heavier awards-season fare like Denis Villeneuve’s highly-anticipated adaptation of Dune and Daniel Craig’s final Bond film, No Time to Die. Before most of these moved, however, during the nationwide theatrical shutdown, the Academy had the insight to postpone the Oscars to the later date of April 25th, 2021, in order to give everyone a fair chance of competing, with the submission deadline for nominations moving to February 28th. 

​Luckily, film festivals like NYFF and TIFF were quick on their feet to respond to these adjustments, and held largely virtual screenings with limited capacities for many of the films they had planned to show, although some festivals, such as Telluride and Cannes (two other major awards indicators), had to be cancelled anyway. This meant that although the Oscars are still pretty far off, many of the films that hoped to compete for them (and weren’t moved past the submission deadline) could be seen by critics and small audiences, and thus the image of an Oscar race, however slight, could begin to take shape. Several contenders, such as Florian Zeller’s The Father and Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland already have a good deal of heat behind them, and David Fincher’s long-awaited Netflix project Mank has just emerged as a major frontrunner as well, after screening for critics two days ago. With all this in mind, I figured now was as good a time as any to get started on The Friendly Film Fan’s Oscars coverage, and put out the first round of nomination predictions. 

​A few notes before we begin: I can only use films that I know are meant to be releasing before the February 28th deadline for nomination consideration, so certain contenders in some categories, like Judas and the Black Messiah, are not listed because the film has been delayed to 2021 without a firm release date. There is also a highly likely scenario in which Wonder Woman 1984, which is currently listed as a prediction in the VFX category, is postponed past that submission deadline, and thus made unable to compete this year. These are not predictions for what the Oscars are definitely going to look like by April; these are ridiculously early predictions based on the data I have to work with right now. By Sunday, four major nominees could be moved to summer 2021. We’ll just have to wait and see. Also (and this really should go without saying), the Short Film categories are not included here, and won’t be joining the other predictions until the Oscars shortlists are released. Now, let’s get into it. Here are my Ridiculously Early Oscar Nomination Predictions for the Academy Awards of 2021!

Best Picture:

• Da 5 Bloods
• The Father
• Hillbilly Elegy
• Mank
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Minari
• Nomadland
• One Night in Miami
• Soul
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Director:

• Florian Zeller, The Father
• David Fincher, Mank
• Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
• Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
• Regina King, One Night in Miami

Best Actor:

• Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Tom Hanks, News of the World
• Anthony Hopkins, The Father
• Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
• Gary Oldman, Mank

Best Actress:

• Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
• Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
• Frances McDormand, Nomadland
• Kate Winslet, Ammonite

Best Supporting Actor:

• Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Charles Dance, Mank
• Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
• Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress:

• Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
• Olivia Colman, The Father
• Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
• Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Best Animated Feature:

• The Croods: A New Age
• Onward
• Over the Moon
• Soul
• Wolfwalkers

Best International Feature Film:

• Another Round (Denmark)
• Beginning (Georgia)
• Charlatan (Czech Republic)
• Collective (Romania)
• My Little Sister (Switzerland)

Best Documentary Feature:

• All In: The Fight for Democracy
• Boys State
• Dick Johnson Is Dead
• John Lewis: Good Trouble
• Time

Best Cinematography:

• Erik Messerschmidt, Mank
• Lachlan Milne, Minari
• Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
• Benjamin Loeb, Pieces of a Woman
• Phedon Papamichael, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Film Editing:

• Yorgos Lamprinos, The Father
• Robert Frazen, i’m thinking of ending things
• Kirk Baxter, Mank
• Jennifer Lame, Tenet
• Alan Baumgarten, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Production Design:

• Donald Graham Burt, Mank
• Yong Ok Lee, Minari
• Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
• Barry Robison, One Night in Miami
• Shane Valentino, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Costume Design:

• Trish Summerville, Mank
• Bina Daigeler, Mulan (2020)
• Hannah Peterson, Nomadland
• Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, One Night in Miami
• Susan Lyall, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

• Kajillionaire
• Mank
• Nomadland
• One Night in Miami
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Score:

• Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank
• Emile Mosseri, Minari
• Ludovico Einaudi, News of the World
• Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Soul
• Ludwig Göransson, Tenet

Best Original Song:

• “Io Si (Seen),” The Life Ahead
• “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami
• “Rocket to the Moon,” Over the Moon
• “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7
• “Just Sing,” Trolls: World Tour

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father
• Vanessa Taylor, Hillbilly Elegy
• Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass, News of the World
• Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
• Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami

Best Original Screenplay:

• Jack Fincher, Mank
• Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
• Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
• Pete Doctor, Mike Jones, and Kemp Powers, Soul
• Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Visual Effects:

• Greyhound
• The Midnight Sky
• Mulan (2020)
• Tenet
• Wonder Woman 1984

Best Sound Design:

• The Invisible Man
• Mank
• Nomadland
• Sound of Metal
• Tenet

Well, there they are, all my predictions for the 2021 Academy Award nominations! What do you think will be competing for 2020’s top movie prizes? Do any of these seem too far-fetched? Too light on nominations? Let me know in the comments section below. Thanks for reading!
 
- The Friendly Film Fan