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(UPDATED) EARLY OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS 2022 – 94TH ACADEMY AWARDS

10/11/2021

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Hello, everyone, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! We are now two weekends into October, which means festivals have occurred/are occurring, movies have been seen, some anticipated releases have now entered their theatrical runs, and a ton of new trailers dropped for awards season material since the last time I posted one of these. The layout of the 2022 Oscar race is much clearer now than it was two months ago, so it’s time to re-evaluate, re-assess, and re-predict the outcome of such a heated competition.
 
A few minor notes before we begin. Firstly, some movies on this predictions list do not yet have footage or a release date set, but according to chatter around Hollywood, they are still coming out this year. Most notably, this applies to Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos, starring Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem (Kidman stars are Lucile Ball). Hence, the film remains where it is on the list because, well, no one should bet against an Aaron Sorkin script landing with the Academy, no matter how much the endings to his films simply don’t land at all. As well, some studios’ FYC (For Your Consideration) campaigns have not yet begun their launch, so it can be tricky to know whether to place performers in certain categories. Most notably, Focus Features’ Belfast is the primary example here, since I’m still not sure whether they will campaign Caitríona Balfe or Jamie Dornan as leads or as supporting parts, though the chatter seems to be leaning in the latter direction, and they certainly would have a better shot in the supporting categories. Other changes include finally having learned the title of Paul Thomas Anderson’s new film, Licorice Pizza (which sported one hell of a trailer), France having no less than three possible submissions to the International Feature category (though I’ve only listed two here), and a bunch of the Best Original Song contenders finally revealing their titles.
 
And now, a drop-off/add-on update: CODA is out in Picture unless AppleTV+ can really manage to campaign hard beyond Marlee Matlin in Supporting Actress, Nine Days is all but entirely lost in basically everything unless it can pull through in Original Screenplay or Score (though again, that’s unlikely), In the Heights has also exited the Sound and Design races, and if NEON plays their cards right, Nicolas Cage could end up crashing the wildcards in Best Actor for his amazing performance in Pig. As well, the Best Documentary Feature category sports some new faces, with the Rita Moreno and Sesame Street docs bowing out to make way for NatGeo’s The Rescue and COVID docs The First Wave and In the Same Breath. Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel has dropped out of the Adapted Screenplay race, but seems to be making headway in other below-the-line categories such as Costume Design and Sound, as Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut, an adaptation of the Elena Ferrante novel The Lost Daughter, picks up steam. Finally, Spain has opted not to submit Pedro Almodóvar’s Parallel Mothers in International Feature, pivoting instead to the Javier Bardem-led comedy The Good Boss, so they have all but left that race entirely as more official submissions continue to come in.
 
Things that have not changed include no predictions for the short film categories yet, the presence of three “Wildcard” selections per category, and the lead acting categories being almost impossible to predict since they are still so crowded. It could be that this all flips on its head tomorrow, but I can only predict using the now. All that being said, let’s get right down to it. Here are my updated predictions for the Oscar nominations of 2022!
​Best Picture:
  • Belfast
  • Don’t Look Up
  • Dune
  • House of Gucci
  • King Richard
  • Licorice Pizza
  • Nightmare Alley
  • The Power of the Dog
  • The Tragedy of Macbeth
  • West Side Story (2021)
Wildcard(s):
  • C’mon C’mon
  • Mass
  • Spencer
Best Director:
  • Denis Villeneuve, Dune
  • Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
  • Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
  • Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
  • Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Wildcard(s):
  • Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
  • Pablo Larraín, Spencer
  • Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (2021)
Best Actress:
  • Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
  • Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
  • Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
  • Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
  • Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Wildcard(s):
  • Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
  • Jennifer Hudson, Respect
  • Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Best Actor:
  • Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
  • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
  • Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
  • Will Smith, King Richard
  • Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Wildcard(s):
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
  • Adam Driver, House of Gucci
  • Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
Best Supporting Actress:
  • Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
  • Ann Dowd, Mass
  • Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
  • Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
  • Marlee Matlin, CODA
Wildcard(s):
  • Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (2021)
  • Judi Dench, Belfast
  • Ruth Negga, Passing
Best Supporting Actor:
  • Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
  • Jason Isaacs, Mass
  • Richard Jenkins, The Humans
  • Jared Leto, House of Gucci
  • Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Wildcard(s):
  • Jamie Dornan, Belfast
  • Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
  • Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Animated Feature:
  • Encanto
  • Flee
  • Luca
  • The Mitchells vs. the Machines
  • Raya and the Last Dragon
Wildcard(s):
  • Belle
  • Ron’s Gone Wrong
  • Where Is Anne Frank?
Best International Feature Film:
  • Flee (Denmark)
  • Happening (France)
  • A Hero (Iran)
  • Memoria (Colombia)
  • The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Wildcard(s):
  • The Hand of God (Italy)
  • I’m Your Man (Germany)
  • Titane (France)
Best Documentary Feature:
  • Flee
  • The Rescue
  • The Sparks Brothers
  • Summer of Soul
  • The Velvet Underground
Wildcard(s):
  • The First Wave
  • In the Same Breath
  • Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
Best Cinematography:
  • Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast
  • Greig Fraser, Dune
  • Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley
  • Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog
  • Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Wildcard(s):
  • Eduard Grau, Passing
  • Claire Mathon, Spencer
  • Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story (2021)
Best Film Editing:
  • Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast
  • Joe Walker, Dune
  • Pamela Martin, King Richard
  • Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza
  • Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog
Wildcard(s):
  • Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up
  • Claire Simpson, House of Gucci
  • Cam McLauchlin, Nightmare Alley
Best Production Design:
  • Patrice Vermette, Dune
  • Adam Stockhausen, The French Dispatch
  • Tamara Deverell, Nightmare Alley
  • Stefan Dechant, The Tragedy of Macbeth
  • Adam Stockhausen, West Side Story (2021)
Wildcard(s):
  • Fiona Crombie, Cruella
  • Arthur Max, The Last Duel
  • Grant Major, The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design:
  • Jenny Beavan, Cruella
  • Jacqueline West and Bob Morgan, Dune
  • Janty Yates, House of Gucci
  • Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley
  • Jacqueline Durran, Spencer
Wildcard(s):
  • Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano
  • Janty Yates, The Last Duel
  • Odile Dicks-Mireaux, Last Night in Soho
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
  • Being the Ricardos
  • Cruella
  • Dune
  • The Eyes of Tammy Faye
  • House of Gucci
Wildcard(s):
  • The French Dispatch
  • Nightmare Alley
  • Spencer
Best Original Score:
  • Hans Zimmer, Dune
  • Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch
  • Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
  • Jonny Greenwood, Spencer
  • Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Wildcard(s):
  • Ramin Djwadi, Eternals
  • Jonny Greenwood, Licorice Pizza
  • Nathan Johnson, Nightmare Alley
Best Original Song:
  • “Be Alive,” King Richard
  • “Colombia, Mi Encanto,” Encanto
  • “Every Letter,” Cyrano
  • “Guns Go Bang,” The Harder They Fall
  • “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die
Wildcard(s):
  • “The Anonymous Ones,” Dear Evan Hansen
  • “So May We Start,” Annette
  • “[TBD],” Tick, Tick…Boom!
Best Adapted Screenplay:
  • Siân Heder, CODA
  • Roberto Bentivegna and Becky Johnston, House of Gucci
  • Kim Morgan and Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
  • Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
  • Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Wildcard(s):
  • Denis Villeneuve, Dune
  • Stephen Karam, The Humans
  • Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Original Screenplay:
  • Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
  • Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
  • Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
  • Fran Kranz, Mass
  • Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Wildcard(s):
  • Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
  • Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon
  • Zach Baylin, King Richard
Best Visual Effects:
  • Dune
  • Eternals
  • Free Guy
  • Godzilla vs. Kong
  • The Matrix: Resurrections
Wildcard(s):
  • Don’t Look Up
  • Ghostbusters: Afterlife
  • The Suicide Squad
Best Sound:
  • Dune
  • The Last Duel
  • No Time to Die
  • Nightmare Alley
  • West Side Story (2021)
Wildcard(s):
  • The Matrix: Resurrections
  • Tick, Tick…Boom!
  • The Power of the Dog
And those are my updated predictions for the 2022 Oscar Nominations! What do you think of these predictions? Any drop-offs you’re sad to see go? Add-ons you’re excited about? How do you think the races will ultimately shake out? Let me know in the comments section below. Thanks for reading!
 
- The Friendly Film Fan
sIn This Piece:

Annette Reviews
CODA Review
Cruella Reviews
Dear Evan Hansen Reviews
The Eyes of Tammy Faye Reviews
Flee Review
Free Guy Reviews
Godzilla vs. Kong Reviews
Luca Reviews
Mass Reviews
The Mitchells vs. the Machines Reviews
Raya and the Last Dragon Reviews
Respect Reviews
The Sparks Brothers Review
The Suicide Squad ​Reviews
Summer of Soul Reviews

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    Film critic in my free time. Film enthusiast in my down time.

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