Hello, everyone, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! We are now two weekends into October, which means festivals have occurred/are occurring, movies have been seen, some anticipated releases have now entered their theatrical runs, and a ton of new trailers dropped for awards season material since the last time I posted one of these. The layout of the 2022 Oscar race is much clearer now than it was two months ago, so it’s time to re-evaluate, re-assess, and re-predict the outcome of such a heated competition.
A few minor notes before we begin. Firstly, some movies on this predictions list do not yet have footage or a release date set, but according to chatter around Hollywood, they are still coming out this year. Most notably, this applies to Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos, starring Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem (Kidman stars are Lucile Ball). Hence, the film remains where it is on the list because, well, no one should bet against an Aaron Sorkin script landing with the Academy, no matter how much the endings to his films simply don’t land at all. As well, some studios’ FYC (For Your Consideration) campaigns have not yet begun their launch, so it can be tricky to know whether to place performers in certain categories. Most notably, Focus Features’ Belfast is the primary example here, since I’m still not sure whether they will campaign Caitríona Balfe or Jamie Dornan as leads or as supporting parts, though the chatter seems to be leaning in the latter direction, and they certainly would have a better shot in the supporting categories. Other changes include finally having learned the title of Paul Thomas Anderson’s new film, Licorice Pizza (which sported one hell of a trailer), France having no less than three possible submissions to the International Feature category (though I’ve only listed two here), and a bunch of the Best Original Song contenders finally revealing their titles.
And now, a drop-off/add-on update: CODA is out in Picture unless AppleTV+ can really manage to campaign hard beyond Marlee Matlin in Supporting Actress, Nine Days is all but entirely lost in basically everything unless it can pull through in Original Screenplay or Score (though again, that’s unlikely), In the Heights has also exited the Sound and Design races, and if NEON plays their cards right, Nicolas Cage could end up crashing the wildcards in Best Actor for his amazing performance in Pig. As well, the Best Documentary Feature category sports some new faces, with the Rita Moreno and Sesame Street docs bowing out to make way for NatGeo’s The Rescue and COVID docs The First Wave and In the Same Breath. Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel has dropped out of the Adapted Screenplay race, but seems to be making headway in other below-the-line categories such as Costume Design and Sound, as Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut, an adaptation of the Elena Ferrante novel The Lost Daughter, picks up steam. Finally, Spain has opted not to submit Pedro Almodóvar’s Parallel Mothers in International Feature, pivoting instead to the Javier Bardem-led comedy The Good Boss, so they have all but left that race entirely as more official submissions continue to come in.
Things that have not changed include no predictions for the short film categories yet, the presence of three “Wildcard” selections per category, and the lead acting categories being almost impossible to predict since they are still so crowded. It could be that this all flips on its head tomorrow, but I can only predict using the now. All that being said, let’s get right down to it. Here are my updated predictions for the Oscar nominations of 2022!
And those are my updated predictions for the 2022 Oscar Nominations! What do you think of these predictions? Any drop-offs you’re sad to see go? Add-ons you’re excited about? How do you think the races will ultimately shake out? Let me know in the comments section below. Thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan
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Dear Evan Hansen Reviews
The Eyes of Tammy Faye Reviews
Free Guy Reviews
Godzilla vs. Kong Reviews
The Mitchells vs. the Machines Reviews
Raya and the Last Dragon Reviews
The Sparks Brothers Review
The Suicide Squad Reviews
Summer of Soul Reviews