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(UPDATED) EARLY OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS – ACADEMY AWARDS 2021

1/12/2021

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​Hello, everyone, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! It’s been quite some time since we reflected on where the Oscar nominations are going to be by the end of February, so I thought that with the delayed awards season now in full swing (in early January 2021, if you can believe it), we could all take stock of what those Oscar races look like. Some films, such as Judas and the Black Messiah and the upcoming Netflix quarantine film Malcolm & Marie (the latter having screened for critics to rave reviews) have picked up serious momentum, whereas others like Ron Howard’s Hillbilly Elegy or the Russo brothers’ Tom Holland-led Apple project, Cherry (which has had a fairly poor reception thus far), have fallen off the map all but entirely. Other films, too, have managed to pick up momentum in select categories, though they don’t seem quite strong enough outside of those categories to be true Academy favorites – there’s a lot of buzz around Tahar Rahim’s performance in the upcoming Jodie Foster film The Mauritanian. All that said, things mostly look the same for many of these categories; the favorites are still there in most of the same spots, and those new predictions don’t seem to be big enough to pull off wins in their respective categories…at least, not yet. 
This will go just about the same way as it did last time: I will list, in full, my list of predicted nominees in each category, including up to three wildcard picks that could potentially also snag nominations if those categories are campaigned well enough for them to break through into the coveted 5 spots. Because the Academy has altered some categories a bit (such as guaranteeing the Best Picture category will have 10 nominees this year and combining both Sound Mixing and Sound Editing), the predictions may look a bit different than previous years. However, the one constant similarity – at least as far as nomination predictions are concerned – is that I don’t predict the short films until the final list, as I have not seen enough of them (or seen any shortlists of submissions) to truly be confident that any 5 picks in those categories would be any more meaningful than a different 5. With all that out of the way, let’s dive right into it, shall we? Here are my updated predictions for the nominations at the 2021 Oscars.
​Best Picture:
  • Da 5 Bloods
  • The Father
  • Malcolm & Marie
  • Mank
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Minari
  • Nomadland
  • Promising Young Woman
  • Soul
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
Wildcard(s):
  • Judas and the Black Messiah
  • One Night in Miami…
  • Supernova
 
Best Director:
  • David Fincher, Mank
  • Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
  • Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
  • Regina King, One Night in Miami…
  • Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Wildcard(s):
  • Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
  • Sam Levinson, Malcolm & Marie
 
Best Actor:
  • Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
  • Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Anthony Hopkins, The Father
  • Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
  • John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
Wildcard(s):
  • Colin Firth, Supernova
  • Gary Oldman, Mank
  • Steven Yeun, Minari
 
Best Actress:
  • Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
  • Frances McDormand, Nomadland
  • Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
  • Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Wildcard(s):
  • Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
  • Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
  • Kate Winslet, Ammonite
 
Best Supporting Actor:
  • Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami…
  • Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
  • Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Wildcard(s):
  • Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
  • Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • David Strathairn, Nomadland
 
Best Supporting Actress:
  • Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
  • Olivia Colman, The Father
  • Amanda Seyfried, Mank
  • Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Wildcard(s):
  • Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Priyanka Chopra Jonas, The White Tiger
  • Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
 
Best Animated Feature:
  • Earwig and the Witch
  • Onward
  • Over the Moon
  • Soul
  • Wolfwalkers
Wildcard(s):
  • The Croods: A New Age
  • A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
 
Best International Feature Film:
  • Another Round (Denmark)
  • Collective (Romania)
  • I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)
  • Notturno (Italy)
  • Two of Us (France)
Wildcard(s):
  • The Mole Agent (Chile)
  • My Little Sister (Switzerland)
  • Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
 
Best Documentary Feature:
  • Boys State
  • Collective
  • Dick Johnson Is Dead
  • Time
  • Totally Under Control
Wildcard(s):
  • City Hall
  • Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution
  • John Lewis: Good Trouble
 
Best Cinematography:
  • Newton Thomas Sigel, Da 5 Bloods
  • Erik Messerschmidt, Mank
  • Darius Wolski, News of the World
  • Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
  • Hoyte van Hoytema, Tenet
Wildcard(s):
  • Christopher Blauvelt, First Cow
  • Lachlan Milne, Minari
  • Tami Reiker, One Night in Miami…
 
Best Film Editing:
  • Yorgos Lamprinos, The Father
  • Kirk Baxter, Mank
  • Andrew Mondshein, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
  • Alan Baumgarten, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Wildcard(s):
  • Adam Gough, Da 5 Bloods
  • Tariq Anwar, One Night in Miami…
 
Best Production Design:
  • Donald Graham Burt, Mank
  • Mark Ricker, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Jim Bissell, The Midnight Sky
  • David Crank, News of the World
  • Barry Robison, One Night in Miami…
Wildcard(s):
  • Grant Major, Mulan (2020)
  • Cristina Casali, The Personal History of David Copperfield
  • Shane Valentino, The Trial of the Chicago 7
 
Best Costume Design:
  • Alexander Byrne, Emma. (2020)
  • Trish Summerville, Mank
  • Ann Roth, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Bina Daigeler, Mulan (2020)
  • Suzie Harman and Robert Worley, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Wildcard(s):
  • Michael O’Connor, Ammonite
  • Mark Bridges, News of the World
  • Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, One Night in Miami…
 
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
  • Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
  • Hillbilly Elegy
  • Mank
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
Wildcard(s):
  • Kajillionaire
  • Promising Young Woman
  • The United States vs. Billie Holiday
 
Best Original Score:
  • Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank
  • Emile Mosseri, Minari
  • James Newton Howard, News of the World
  • Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Soul
  • Ludwig Göransson, Tenet
Wildcard(s):
  • Terence Blanchard, Da 5 Bloods
  • Alexandre Desplat, The Midnight Sky
 
Best Original Song:
  • “Lo Si (Seen),” The Life Ahead
  • “Free,” The One and Only Ivan
  • “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami…
  • “Rocket to the Moon,” Over the Moon
  • “Wear Your Crown,” The Prom
Wildcard(s):
  • “Turntables,” All In: The Fight for Democracy
  • “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7
 
Best Adapted Screenplay:
  • Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father
  • Charlie Kaufman, i’m thinking of ending things
  • Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
  • Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami…
Wildcard(s):
  • Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, and Dan Swimer, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Kelly Reichardt and Jonathan Raymond, First Cow
 
Best Original Screenplay:
  • Jack Fincher, Mank
  • Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
  • Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
  • Pete Doctor, Mike Jones, and Kemp Powers, Soul
  • Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Wildcard(s):
  • Will Berson and Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
  • Andy Siara, Palm Springs
 
Best Visual Effects:
  • Greyhound
  • The Invisible Man
  • The Midnight Sky
  • Mulan
  • Tenet
Wildcard(s):
  • Sonic the Hedgehog
 
Best Sound:
  • Mank
  • News of the World
  • Nomadland
  • Sound of Metal
  • Tenet
Wildcard(s):
  • The Invisible Man
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • The Midnight Sky
Do you agree with these assessments? What do you think will be nominated for the Oscars this year? Are you anticipating any late-race upsets or surges? Let me know in the comments section below. Thanks for reading!
 
- The Friendly Film Fan
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    Film critic in my free time. Film enthusiast in my down time.

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