 by Jacob Jones Well, that was pretty crazy, wasn’t it? Of course, what couldn’t be crazy about the 2025 Oscar Nominations? It’s the Oscars; they thrive on crazy! All jokes aside, now that the Academy has finally unveiled their nominees for the Best in Film of 2024, it’s time to break open that pandora’s box and examine all the surprises and disappointments it holds. To start, the absolute disrespect towards Dune: Part Two by AMPAS’ choice to leave it out of Adapted Screenplay, Makeup & Hairstyling, Costume Design, Film Editing, and of course, Director, is an absurdity I will not stand for. The first film was nominated for 10 Oscars, winning 6, but an even better follow-up only gets half that recognition? I mean, I’m aware of what happened with Empire Strikes Back, but I didn’t think this new Academy was doing the same old song and dance by ignoring sci-fi and giving into such blatant recency bias. More to the point, though, Challengers receiving 0 nominations is a genuine outrage, especially in Best Original Score, in which Wicked seemed to take its place (and I can’t even begin to describe how irritating that is from a musical standpoint). Among other disappointments were Clarence Maclin missing Best Supporting Actor despite its unlikelihood, which indicated early that Sing Sing could likely miss Best Picture (thank you A24 for messing the release strategy up so spectacularly), and of course Emilia Pérez running the table with no less than 13 nominations to its name.  The morning was not without its pleasant surprises, however as twenty-one of my wildcard picks – many of them hopefuls – did end up landing nominations in their respective categories, including Nickel Boys in Best Adapted Screenplay, Alien: Romulus is Best Visual Effects, and both Sugarcane and Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat in Best Documentary Feature. Also, as it turns out, I was right to trust my instincts on a few things, namely that the international contingent of the Academy would show strong support for Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (for which Jeremy Strong also received a nomination in Best Supporting Actor), and Flow – which comes to us from Latvia – would ultimately land nominations in both Animated Feature and International Feature. I also correctly predicted that September 5 would receive the fifth spot in the Best Original Screenplay category, and that Edward Lachmann would receive Maria’s lone nomination in Cinematography. By far the morning’s biggest surprise, however, came at the tail end of the announcement when the words “I’m Still Here” were read out amongst the nominees. Having not yet seen the film, I can’t comment on whether this is a pleasant or an unpleasant surprise, but it does re-enforce the one consistent thing about this entire awards season: how chaotic and distinctly inconsistent it has always been. Word to the wise: never underestimate the Brazilians, who not only catapulted I’m Still Here into the Best Picture category, but also secured a Best Actress nomination for Fernanda Torres’ work in the film. She now joins her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, who was previously nominated in the same category for her work in Central Station, which was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film at the 71st Academy Awards. It would seem now that she, and not Mikey Madison as had previously been thought, is the primary challenger to Demi Moore, whose Best Actress nomination for The Substance is just one of that film’s five (including Best Picture and Best Director for Coralie Fargeat). All told, the ups and downs of these awards races are sure going to be a roller-coaster ride all the way to the finish line when the Oscars air live on ABC and stream for the first time on Hulu on March 2nd. A full list of the 2025 Oscar nominees is below. BEST PICTURE The Nominees:
BEST DIRECTOR The Nominees:
BEST ACTRESS The Nominees:
BEST ACTOR The Nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The Nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR The Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Nominees:
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM The Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE The Nominees:
The Nominees:
BEST FILM EDITING The Nominees:
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Nominees:
BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Nominees:
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG The Nominees:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Nominees:
BEST SOUND The Nominees:
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT The Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT The Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT The Nominees:
What do you think of these nominations? Anything you’re surprised to see or find absent? Any choices that delight you? Enrage you? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan
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 by Jacob Jones On Tuesday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) unveiled their shortlists for ten below-the-line categories at the 97th Oscars, revealing which films voters had selected as finalists for a nomination in each. Shortlists are a hallowed tradition for the Academy’s voting body and for awards prognosticators, who use these lists as a means of more accurately predicting what will be competing for those coveted gold statues come January. Wicked and Emilia Pérez were the big winners of the day, taking up 4 and 6 shortlist spots each in a strong bid for both movie musicals from Universal Pictures and Netflix. Though there were no major surprises in most categories, a few inclusions (and exclusions) stood out amongst the rest. Notably, Hans Zimmer’s score for Dune: Part Two was deemed ineligible for competition by AMPAS’ music branch – who determined that it contained too much previously published music to be considered original to the film – but the score for Wicked, which adapts Act One of the iconic Broadway musical for the silver screen, does make an appearance in the Original Score shortlist (which includes 20 shortlisted competitors, the most in any category), leaving awards pundits scratching their heads about how it remains eligible, given that much of the music seems to find its origins in the stage version. Other surprises included Alien: Romulus showing up not only in Visual Effects, but also in Sound and Original Score (two categories it was not expected to be competitive in), as well as the film Waltzing with Brando sneaking into the Makeup & Hairstyling lineup for its transformation of Billy Zane into the titular movie icon. Even the corpse of the ill-fated Joker: Folie à Deux managed to eek out a single nod in Best Sound. On the losing side, the unfortunately underseen Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – George Miller’s follow-up prequel to six-time Oscar winner Mad Max: Fury Road – went entirely ignored, missing key chances to remind Oscar voters and viewers of its potential as an awards contender in the craft categories. Less similarly, though still notably, Alex Garland’s Civil War landed a shortlist spot in Best Visual Effects, but not Best Sound, where most awards pundits had predicted it could appear given that the sound editing in the film is frequently lauded as its greatest accomplishment. The Golden Globe-nominated Miley Cyrus song “Beautiful That Way,” which appears in The Last Showgirl, missed the cut for its designated category as well, in a swift reversal to its new awards season momentum, leaving at least one more chance for Kneecap’s “Sick in the Head” to make a surprise appearance. All in all, however, despite the shortlists’ miscarriages of justice towards George Miller and company, they remain full of strong contenders, any number of whom would be worthy of a nomination come announcement morning. A full list of the 2025 Oscar Shortlists appears below. Best Documentary Feature:
Best Documentary Short:
Best International Feature:
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
Best Original Score:
Best Original Song:
Best Animated Short:
Best Live-Action Short:
Best Sound:
Best Visual Effects:
What do you think of these shortlists? Are there any films you’re surprised made an appearance? Any you’re shocked or disappointed are missing? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading! - The Friendly Film Fan *"Forbidden Road," from Better Man, has been disqualified from Oscar competition. Its inclusion here is reflective of its appearance in the original iteration of these shortlists.
 By Jacob Jones The act of adaptation can be a particularly tricky line to walk; stray too far from the source material one is adapting, and your product is either regarded as a failure by those familiar with such material, or a triumph by those who deemed it too bland to be interesting on its own. On the other hand, stay too faithful to the story being told, and the adaptation becomes traditionally boring, wherein the lack of alterations to a tale whose origins are mediocre at best then reinforce that mediocrity as it appears on screen. The most audacious adaptations – The Godfather, Arrival, No Country for Old Men, Killers of the Flower Moon, etc. – elevate their source material (regardless of how good it already was on its own) to new heights by switching up approaches, changing plot details so as to make them more accessible to a wider range of people, and filtering all of the character details found in book pages through exceptional performances by remarkably skillful actors and masterful direction. But not every adaptation can reach the same heights, and sometimes all one needs for an adaptation to be successful is a faithful approach to quality source material. This is where Conclave comfortably sits.
Based on the book of the same name by Thomas Harris, Conclave’s story finds its center in Ralph Fiennes’ Cardinal Lawrence, who – in the wake of the Pope’s unfortunate death – is charged with running a new Conclave in which all eligible Cardinals will vote to select the Holy Father’s successor. Once one Cardinal receives a two-thirds majority of the vote, that person will become the new Pope, and the face of universal church. Sometimes these elections can take mere hours; sometimes they take days, and with no less than three front-runners making plays for the throne, anything can happen. With the world and the church’s place in it on the brink of total collapse, it is imperative that the Conclave swiftly and decisively select the right representative, both for God, and for the millions of faithful around the globe. This film also stars Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini. How films like Conclave land for someone is all about the approach to watching it. If you go in blind, you’re likely to have a greater reaction to its myriad of plot turns and twists, but you’re also less likely to forgive how the film essentially skips getting to know its characters on a personal level, apart from their individual interactions with Cardinal Lawrence, whom the film is content to have the audience become familiar with through Ralph Fiennes’ layered, deeply understated performance. Having finished Harris’ book mere hours before seeing the film for the first time, I was able to pinpoint in Fiennes’ eyes where all of the character’s internal thoughts came through in the story as outlined in the original text, but for those who haven’t read it, I would imagine that this is a difficult element to understand without any sort of clue given by the film itself. Fiennes is such a skilled actor that in order to play this part right, it requires an almost anti-theatricality, and he nails every beat perfectly, if one knows where to look for them. The same could be applied to both John Lithgow and Stanley Tucci’s characters as well, although we do get to know them more thoroughly through conversations, whereas with Lawrence, the audience is left to simply accept whatever it is about him they can glean from his subtler demeanor. As for Rossellini, while she does feature in one terrific scene towards the third act of the film, the rest of her performance is largely hidden by the needs of the plot, relegating her to more of a background character than a genuine supporting player most of the time. To assuage any doubts that may have arisen: Conclave is a good movie. It’s well-mounted, the no-frills approach to adapting the book works, and all of the performances are played at exactly the right pitch for the story being told. While some of its production elements can feel a tad formulaic at times, they serve their respective purposes in making the story feel coherent, dramatic, and occasionally quite funny, and there are moments of genuine greatness among them, particularly in the cinematography and the costume designs. But herein lies my question: is Conclave a good movie only because the book it’s based on is a good story? Berger’s approach to viewing the Conclave less like the most important thing that could ever occur in a religious sector of the world and more like an overly gossipy workplace meeting that we seem to be in on imbues the film with a sense of fun it may otherwise have lacked, but given its near one-to-one translation from the source material, how much of that credit can be truly given to Berger, and how much goes to Harris’ original text? For me, most of it goes to Harris. Berger is a skilled filmmaker, as evidence by Netflix’s adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front in 2022, but if one is going to adapt books as famous as those Berger has helmed thus far, every production element needs to be firing on all cylinders in order to elevate the director above the material he chooses. As it stands, Conclave is the sort of movie I wish we had twenty of every year. A gripping mystery, told by skilled filmmakers, with some of the best performers in the world chewing the scenery as though they’d not eaten since their last screen test. Even without the level of craftsmanship it would need to be truly competitive in most awards categories (and with one book scene missing that I feel would have elevated it beyond just being very good), it’s a delightfully fun time at the movies, and it’s nice to see that the mid-budget thriller driven by dialogue and character, rather than spectacle, is making a handsome comeback. I’m giving “Conclave” a 7.8/10 - The Friendly Film Fan  The Friendly Film Fan Selects What Will and What Should Win at the 96th Academy Awards Well, folks, that time has finally arrived, as the Oscars are nearly upon us. After a long and winding road through strikes, delays, and production setbacks, the awards season is due to come to an end (which wouldn’t be so exhausting if the Academy would just move the Oscars back to February, but that’s another piece). As of tomorrow, the Academy will have unveiled what they voted on as the best of the best in movies in 2023, so this is the last chance we’ve got at predicting what exactly their tastes line up to be. Of course, we have our own picks in each category, whether it’s something we believe should be taking home the gold or something that should have been nominated in the first place, as well as Dark Horse candidates not enough people are worrying about and secondary guesses in more competitive races. It all comes to a head tonight, so once more, here are our predictions for the winners at the 96th Annual Academy Awards! BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT The Nominees:
Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning Could Steal: Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó Dark Horse: Island in Between Should Have Been Nominated: Last Song from Kabul It’s a strange thing to have the only non-publicly-screened category in the Oscar Shorts races be the most accessible of all three, and yet for Best Documentary Short, we were able to see all but two of fifteen shortlisted films (the missing two being Bear and Wings of Dust). To that end, we feel as if we’ve got a pretty good handle on this category, which makes it a bit disappointing that what is easily the weakest of the shorts – The ABCs of Book Banning – is most likely to take home the award at the end of the night. In a just world, The Last Repair Shop would walk away with this in a landslide, but we could also see an argument for the thoroughly charming Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó as well. In any case, many of the doc shorts this year were quite good, and the ones that weren’t…mostly didn’t make it this far anyway. BEST ANIMATED SHORT The Nominees:
Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko Could Steal: Ninety-Five Senses Dark Horse: Our Uniform Should Have Been Nominated: N/A As we have been unable to find or view Our Uniform and War Is Over!, we are abstaining from picking a “Should Win” in this category, but in all likelihood, the win will go to the latter of these two shorts. There is a small chance that the widely-supported Ninety-Five Senses could swoop in for the win, but it seems unlikely this late in the race. Watch out for Our Uniform, though. While we were not able to view it in its entirety, the style of animation present in the trailers for it display world-class creativity in the medium, and could appeal to voters who like their animation a little more unconventionally rendered. BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT The Nominees:
Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar Could Steal: Red, White and Blue Dark Horse: Knight of Fortune Should Have Been Nominated: N/A The second of the two shorts categories we were able to actually watch all the nominees for, Best Live-Action Short is stacked with really interesting and fun work (with one notable exception). The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar has everything it needs to win the night, including the invitation to give an Oscar to the great Wes Anderson, who has bafflingly remained winless to this point. That said, we would really like this one to go to Invincible, a wonderfully-told and poignant story paying touching tribute to a life lost too soon. If anything is likely to steal Henry Sugar’s thunder, however, it would seem to be abortion drama Red, White and Blue, which is very well-told, but perhaps a bit too theme-forward in the narrative. Knight of Fortune, a surprisingly funny and touching story of a man mourning his deceased wife, could burst through in a split vote between the prior two films, but as with Ninety-Five Senses in the previous category, it seems – at best – unlikely. If by some curse The After wins, we should all answer to God; it is by far the worst in the category, and its nomination here is baffling. BEST SOUND The Nominees:
Will Win: The Zone of Interest Could Steal: Oppenheimer Dark Horse: Maestro Should Have Been Nominated: The Killer There are one or two “no guts, no glory” predictions – what we call “hope-dictions” we’re going to make this year, the first of which is in Best Sound. While it is entirely possible that Oppenheimer runs the table in nearly every nominated category, Best Sound is one we think should and ultimately will go to Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, a film in which the sound design is not only the best in the category, but the topic of conversation surrounding the film’s overall quality. You can’t talk to someone who’s seen Zone of Interest without the sound design coming up as the thing that most strikes the viewer. That said, Oppenheimer’s sound is almost just as excellent, and it’s likely to win many of the night’s below-the-line races; this could just be one of them. While the rest of the nominees also have good to great sound design (The Creator in particular has excellent sound – think of the bridge scene), it would have been nice to see The Killer nominated in the category. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Nominees:
Will Win: The Creator Could Steal: Godzilla Minus One Dark Horse: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Should Have Been Nominated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse This is a two-horse race if ever there was one. While many believe that Godzilla Minus One’s enormous popularity may sway most international voters (of which the Academy has added many in recent years) towards the side of the atomic lizard, The Creator has not missed a visual effects award to date, and is widely viewed by the VFX industry as revolutionary to the practice. For our money, we do think that the Academy may ultimately decide the nomination itself is enough for Minus One’s representation and instead reward The Creator in this category. Even with all of that, however, it’s a shame that the exemplary work on display in Across the Spider-Verse couldn’t break the stigma of the effects being part of an animated film. BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
Will Win: Arthur Harari and Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: David Hemingson, The Holdovers Should Have Been Nominated: N/A This seemed like The Holdovers’ award to take for a while, even while Past Lives fans (including myself) tend to posit that that screenplay is far superior. However, momentum – and not undeserved momentum at that – has seemed to swing the way of Justine Triet for her and Arthur Harari’s ace screenwriting in the excellent Anatomy of a Fall, which would be a worthy win in any year. If there were another film – apart from Past Lives – that we felt deserved more recognition, it’s May December, the screenplay for which is exceptionally witty, insightful, and biting in its more satirical elements. Frankly, May December should have been nominated in far more categories…but we’ll get to that. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
Will Win: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction Could Steal: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer Dark Horse: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest Should Have Been Nominated: Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon While it is a bummer that Killers of the Flower Moon was snubbed in this category – especially as it is a genuine feat of adaptation from its more true-crime style source material – the category itself remains exceptionally strong. The most likely winner looks to be Cord Jefferson for his debut feature, American Fiction, which would be a good win, even if we didn’t personally think some elements beyond the script ultimately landed the way the film clearly wanted them to. What we’d ultimately prefer to see, however, is a win for Christopher Nolan in this category; Oppenheimer’s screenplay – written by Nolan in the first person – is so clear regarding everything the audience and the characters are meant to be experiencing in such a tightly-wound piece that one could call it miraculous the whole thing doesn’t come off as one convoluted mess. That’s deserving of recognition, even if Barbie somewhat pulls off the same trick to a lesser extent. BEST ORIGINAL SONG The Nominees:
Will Win: “What Was I Made For?,” Barbie Could Steal: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie Dark Horse: “It Never Went Away,” American Symphony Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: “Camp Isn’t Home,” Theater Camp If this category is to continue at the Academy Awards, they’ll need to do more than just hand Diane Warren a nomination every year for an either actively bad or at least not very good movie. While I didn’t predict “It Never Went Away” being nominated (even though I really should have; I mean, c’mon, Jon Batiste’s name is right there), the presence of “The Fire Inside” in this category felt inevitable in a way that takes the fun out of what else could go here. The obvious conclusion is that one of the two Barbie songs nominated will ultimately end up winning, and either way, they’ll be worthy wins…but it should go to I’m Just Ken. The real bummer here is that the incredibly creative work on display in Theater Camp didn’t even have a shot, as none of the songs were shortlisted for the category. Still, the inclusion of “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” is inspired. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Nominees:
Will Win: Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Laura Karpman, American Fiction Should Have Been Nominated: Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse We’ve already written and spoken at length about the heinous snub of Daniel Pemberton’s score for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse here, so we won’t belabor that point except to say that we have listened to all five scores, and while the first two listed in the category work well enough for their own purposes (American Fiction in particular is fairly underrated as 2023’s scores go), we’re still not sure we would have included them here over things like the aforementioned Spider-Verse or composer Joe Hisaishi’s soulful melodies for one of our other favorite animated works last year, The Boy and the Heron. All that said, as with many categories, this has been Oppenheimer’s award from the jump, as Ludwig Göransson catapults himself into the upper echelon any and all film composers working today. Of course, we love the late Robbie Robertson’s wonderful compositions for Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things’ score feels as eclectic and off-kilter as the movie itself, but there’s a power behind Oppenheimer’s score that feels simply undeniable. It’s simultaneously new yet classical, always tense yet also filled with a knowing dread. There’s nothing else like it this year and there’s unlikely to be anything else like it in the years to come. It will be a well-deserved second win for Göransson (he previously won this category for Black Panther in 2018). BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Nominees:
Will Win: Maestro Could Steal: Poor Things Dark Horse: Society of the Snow Should Have Been Nominated: N/A One of the more tenuous categories of the evening, Best Makeup & Hairstyling seems to be poised for a one-time-only win in Maestro’s favor, but it’s not as clear a victory as some may have you believe. Poor Things, too, boasts some excellent prosthetic work and late-breaking Netflix survival hit Society of the Snow does a lot with its makeup to convey just how brutal the conditions of the Uruguayan football team become after so long on the mountain. Our one brag here – as much of a brag as it can be for such a middle-of-the-road movie – is that we actually saw Golda in theaters, so we knew it was likely going to be appearing here. BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Nominees:
Will Win: Jacqueline Durran, Barbie Could Steal: Holly Waddington, Poor Things Dark Horse: David Crossman and Janty Yates, Napoleon Should Have Been Nominated: Stacey Battat, Priscilla The next two categories are a two-horse race between the same two films. Both Barbie and Poor Things boast excellent design work in virtually every department, and their near-equal proximity to a win in either race makes it fairly likely they could split votes here, with Costume Design going to Barbie for Jacqueline Durran’s perfect recreations of all the titular doll’s iconic outfits. If one keeps in mind that Little Women’s costume design (also by Jacqueline Durran) was so strong it managed to still pull off that film’s only Oscar win, the notion of Barbie taking this seems much more likely. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Nominees:
Will Win: Shona Heath and James Price, Poor Things Could Steal: Sarah Greenwood, Barbie Dark Horse: Arthur Max, Napoleon Should Have Been Nominated: Adam Stockhausen, Asteroid City or Chris Oddy, The Zone of Interest Going the other way in the Barbie vs. Poor Things double-header, we’re fairly confident that the split vote will ultimately result in Poor Things taking the award designated for more overall design work. The sets and environments created by Shona Heath and James Price in Poor Things feel not only like the best way to fully realize the world set by the novel, but somehow the only possible way it ever could have looked. While Barbie’s production design is excellent – especially in its imagination of Barbieland – it doesn’t quite give off the same feeing, especially as it does have at least some previously realized visual material to pull from. The real question, however, is this: how the hell does Asteroid City not even land in this category? Regardless of how one feels about the film, it is impeccably designed and staged. Oh well, at least Wes Anderson will likely still have an Oscar at the end of the night. BEST FILM EDITING The Nominees:
Will Win: Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Laurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall Should Have Been Nominated: Affonso Gonçalves, May December Film Editing is, in many ways, the key art form to master in filmmaking. One has to know not only where to cut but what to cut, and to take it a step further, what not to. Taking various pieces of footage and fitting them all together so that your film not only feels engaging from moment to moment but exciting to watch, and most of all properly paced, is a task that requires herculean amounts of skill, and not one nominee here is lacking in that skill. Oppenheimer is – you guessed it – the obvious choice here, as Jennifer Lame’s lightning-fast edit transports the viewer across multiple perspectives and eras in the life of its protagonist without missing a step or becoming convoluted along the way. For our part, though, we would give this to Thelma Schoonmaker for her god-like edit of Killers of the Flower Moon, which prioritizes pacing over speed, and as such lends the epic and tragic tale of the Osage murders a greater weight for all the time we spend with it. Since the 70s, Schoonmaker has cemented herself as perhaps the greatest film editor of all time – certainly one of them at least – and the Academy is fast running out of chances to recognize her mastery. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY The Nominees:
Will Win: Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: Dan Laustsen, John Wick: Chapter 4 or Linus Sandgren, Saltburn or Łukasz Żal, The Zone of Interest The only film on this list we did not get to see was El Conde, and shame on us for missing it, as the film came out all the way back in September on Netflix, and yet, every time we sat down to watch it, something else would pull our attentions away. Of the four we did see though, Poor Things’ cinematography felt not only the most innovative, but the most appropriate to the tone of the film. The lensing is not only inspired, but purposeful, and often gives the film a feeling of unparalleled uniqueness – there’s just nothing else like it. However, this is yet another award that Oppenheimer is most likely to take, and once again, it is not an undeserved win. Hoyte van Hoytema is one of the great living cinematographers, quickly becoming a household name amongst cinephiles after Dunkirk, Tenet, and Nope (for which he should have been nominated this past year) alongside Emmanuel Lubezki and Roger Deakins, and to see him finally win one is sure to be a treat. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE The Nominees:
Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol Could Steal: Four Daughters Dark Horse: Bobi Wine: The People’s President Should Have Been Nominated: Beyond Utopia The Best Documentary category is always the most difficult branch to predict in terms of what they will choose to nominate for the Oscars, and if this year is any indication, that’s unlikely to change any time soon. The absence of heavy contenders like American Symphony and Beyond Utopia (particularly the former) makes this category more difficult to understand but also easier to predict a winner for, as the intense and terrifying 20 Days in Mariupol – which chronicles Russia’s beginning invasion of the titular Ukrainian city – now has nothing really standing in its way as it marches towards a near-certain win. As we haven’t seen enough of the films in this category to warrant choosing a “Should Win,” we won’t be doing that here, but we will contend that if 20 Days has any competition at all, it would be in the wildly innovative Four Daughters, whose approaches to both its filmmaking and subject matter are so creative it would be a cinch if not for 20 Days’ feeling of urgency. BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM The Nominees:
Will Win: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany) Should Have Been Nominated/Submitted: Anatomy of a Fall (France) Well, the Best International Feature category has once more bitten France in the ass because they chose the wrong film to submit for the Oscars. Don’t get us wrong, The Taste of Things is an absolutely lovely, excellent, and romantic work of glorious quiet and subtlety, but to submit it for the Oscars over Anatomy of a Fall – which not only won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival but just came off of a whopping six César Award wins – seemed foolish even when awards season wasn’t yet in full swing. That said, there’s no way this award doesn’t go to the only film also nominated in Best Picture, Jonathan Glazer’s searing portrait of an SS Officer and his family’s “quiet” life in The Zone of Interest, which landed at #2 on our Top 10 Best Movies of 2023 list. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Nominees:
Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Could Steal: The Boy and the Heron Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: Suzume Firstly, while we have been thus far unable to see Robot Dreams, so has most everyone else, as Neon has decided not to release the film until May of this year, in a move which has riled up some controversy due to the release date’s long proximity from the awards race itself. Regardless, this can go one of two ways. Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron could come out on top, but we think it’s just a little more likely that Annie and PGA winner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will ultimately take the victory, and according to us, it should. We’ve spoken time and time again about how there’s simply no other team doing animation at this scale right now, bringing things to life audiences would never have though of even based on the previous film’s innovations (Into the Spider-Verse also won this category a few years ago), and if Daniel Pemberton’s score is to fall by the wayside in terms of nominations, the least the Academy can do is hand this film one win. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR The Nominees:
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer Could Steal: Ryan Gosling, Barbie Dark Horse: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction Should Have Been Nominated: Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers or Charles Melton, May December We’re up to the big five now. Best Supporting Actor seemed like it could go a few different ways before awards season began, but with the absence of Charles Melton’s uncanny performance in May December – a performance that, frankly, should have been a front-runner in this category, all signs point to Robert Downey Jr. finally landing the plane to take home an Oscar all his own. Some have speculated that Ryan Gosling could steal the show here, and many underestimated the Academy’s love for Sterling K. Brown, but RDJ hasn’t lost this race even once leading into the night, so any name being called except his – which is the strongest of the Supporting Actor performances, to be sure – would be a genuine upset. (We really need to talk about how good Robert De Niro is in Killers of the Flower Moon, though. It’s one of his best performances in years and we’d be fools to let it fall by the wayside.) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The Nominees:
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Jodie Foster, Nyad Should Have Been Nominated: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret and/or Julianne Moore, May December Another category all wrapped up in a neat little bow, Da’Vine Joy Randolph is likely to be the sole win for Alexander Payne’s newly-minted Christmas classic, The Holdovers, and she is - without question – our “Should Win” for this category as well. Randolph has been one of our “to watch” stars ever since her dynamically fun turn in Dolemite is My Name, and to see her finally get the spotlight she deserves is really something special. There’s no chance anyone steals this award from her, although it would have been nice to see some love thrown the way of Rachel McAdams for her performance in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. or even to Julianne Moore for hers in May December. Personally speaking, while we do love America Ferrera and her performance in Barbie is one that walks the delicate line well, we would have no problem swapping her out for either one of them. BEST ACTOR The Nominees:
Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Could Steal: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Dark Horse: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction Should Have Been Nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon or Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers As far as nominations are concerned, Best Actor metastasized much quicker than the other acting categories, as the five present here felt inevitable once awards season began. The only real question was whether or not the Academy was going to go for Jeffrey Wright over Leonardo DiCaprio, and given all the love for American Fiction, things seemed to be going that way anyway (although if we had our way, we’d probably have them swapped out). Colman Domingo’s nomination was always going to happen, as he landed at every major precursor on the docket prior to his nomination here, and while his performance is quite good, the film is more comfortable playing everything else as safe as it could be, which indicates to us that his time is still to come (get ready for Sing Sing next year, folks; we’re hearing it’s a big one). This, really, is a two-horse race between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti, and as much as we’d like to see Giamatti with an Oscar in one hand and an In-N-Out burger in the other, Cillian Murphy’s victory – reflected by his SAG win most recently – feels like the inevitable crowning moment of the actor’s 20-year working relationship with Christopher Nolan. If you’re going for the safe bet, put money of Murphy. BEST ACTRESS The Nominees:
Will Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Could Steal: Emma Stone, Poor Things Dark Horse: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall Should Have Been Nominated: Greta Lee, Past Lives or Margot Robbie, Barbie There’s one glaring issue we have with Best Actress, and as we’re sure you’ve guessed by now, it’s the inclusion of Annette Benning’s frankly subpar work in the decent-but-plain-toast Nyad, which somehow won the nomination over Margot Robbie’s endlessly fun turn in Barbie or, in the case of what we would have chosen in that spot, Greta Lee’s thoroughly moving performance in Past Lives. Yet another two-horse race wherein the SAG awards may have dictated the ultimate winner, we’re predicting a Lily Gladstone victory here, which would make her the first-ever Native American woman to win this category, and it would be a well-deserved win, regardless of whether one believes she should in the supporting categories or not. Her toughest competition comes in the form of Emma Stone’s greatest singular performance to date as Bella Baxter in Poor Things, which is saying something when one considers that she’s only gotten better since her first Oscar win for La La Land all the way back in 2016. Stone continually chooses to challenge herself with every new part; if she manages to eek out a second win within 10 years, we may have to consider her amongst the likes of the greatest to ever do it. (In the unlikely event of a split vote, watch out for Sandra Hüller, though.) BEST DIRECTOR The Nominees:
Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: N/A We might as well have titled this the Christopher Nolan award, as the filmmaking juggernaut is finally poised to have an Oscar in hand after nearly a decade of some of the most exemplary filmmaking the business has ever had to offer. From The Dark Night to Inception to Dunkirk, Nolan’s direction has been snubbed time and time again by the Academy, and at last, his victory is assured, a deserved victory if ever there was one. For our part, however, we do believe that the most deserving nominee is Jonathan Glazer for just how delicate and dark a line The Zone of Interest is able to walk without ever feeling like anything less than an indictment of how easily people are able to deliberately ignore genocides happening right before their very eyes, even participating in them to the degree that their own comfort is unthreatened. Yes, it would be nice to see Scorsese take home a victory here as well for what we feel is the best work of his late-late period filmmaking career, but Glazer’s direction is the thing upon which the success of The Zone of Interest rests, even if it’s not the singular element everyone who sees the film talks about the most. BEST PICTURE The Nominees:
Will Win: Oppenheimer Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: May December or Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Although any of the four films we’ve selected as “Should Win” would be more than worthy, this award has had Oppenheimer’s name on it since awards season began, and its PGA victory, as well as its Best Ensemble award win at SAG and Best Picture wins at nearly every non-critics-based awards show point to an inevitable and resounding victory for what many consider Christopher Nolan’s magnum opus. The case for it winning is strong as well, as the three-hour biopic shot partially in black-and-white about one of history’s most controversial and legendary historical figures made nearly $1 billion at the U.S. box office alone, becoming one of the year’s most widely seen and greatly beloved films; that’s something the Oscars are designed to celebrate, even more than highlighting other great work that may not otherwise be widely seen in the first place; an Oppenheimer win wouldn’t just be a win for the film, but for the Oscars as well (even if we do think Killers of the Flower Moon or The Zone of Interest may ultimately be more inspired choices on the whole). And those are our picks for what Should and what Will Win at the 96th Annual Academy Awards! What do you think of these predictions? Any surprises you’re making bold bets on? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan  The Friendly Film Fan Recaps the Nominees for the 96th Academy Awards. Well, the day is here, and the Oscar nominations have officially been announced! There weren’t many genuine surprises and a few major snubs occurred, but overall, the field is rich with fantastic choices and a world of great cinema to explore. Personally I was happy to see Killers of the Flower Moon get some love in unexpected places like Original Song (though that Best Adapted Screenplay miss does hurt) and films like Anatomy of a Fall score some key nods that put it higher than many pundits had it in terms of how likely it would be to win categories. I’ll also proudly boast that I went 5 for 5 on four categories – including Best Supporting Actor, betting on Sterling K. Brown over Willem Dafoe – as well as 10 for 10 in Best Picture, and most other categories’ perfect scores were missed due to at least one of my three wildcards making it in over a predicted nominee. All that said, some of the snubs did hurt (though not the ones you might think). Personally, I’m not that surprised that Greta Gerwig was not nominated for Best Director; if she wasn’t nominated for Little Women, being nominated for something inherently more commercial – even if Todd Phillips was able to do it with a far lesser quality film – would still have been a stretch for the Academy. (Plus, it seemed Justine Triet would be closer to their taste in terms of the film that was made.) What did bum me out me was the absence of Margot Robbie in Best Actress, not because of her absence from the category as a whole – though it is weird that the other two actors from Barbie were included and not her – but because of the nominee that replaced her. Almost everyone in this category was relatively safe, give or take a “Gladstone missed BAFTA” surprise, but the final spot was between Robbie, Greta Lee, Fantasia Barrino, Annette Benning, and (though it would’ve been a little out of nowhere) Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor. Unfortunately, the Academy went with the weakest choice out of all five in Annette Benning, whose performance in Nyad isn’t the worst I’ve ever seen for a nominee here, but I would argue is a bad performance. The frustration is in how there were at least 4 better choices that all got passed up. But, the actors branch nominated actors, and Benning made the SAG lineup, so I’m not surprised, per se…I’m just disappointed. The other puzzling snubs category is, as it turned out, was Best Original Score, in which American Fiction edged out leading candidates such as The Boy and the Heron, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and The Zone of Interest. I say that American Fiction edged them out because John Williams being nominated for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is not as surprising when once considers that this is the same Academy who nominated the 91-year-old composing legend for The Rise of Skywalker, which was not one of the ten best scores of that year either. It's just upsetting to see American Fiction and Indiana Jones take not one but two shots at the category away from both The Boy and the Heron and Across the Spider-Verse, a sign that even this new Academy has yet to truly treat animated films as seriously as they deserve to be treated. I personally barely remember the score for American Fiction, but Williams’ score for Indiana Jones is good – it just will never stick in my memory the way Spider-Verse does. Other surprises included America Ferrera landing the plane for Barbie to take the 5th spot in Best Supporting Actress in a toss up between other five possibles, Killers of the Flower Moon being passed on in Adapted Screenplay in favor of The Zone of Interest, both American Symphony and Beyond Utopia missing Documentary Feature (though that category always snubs a leader anyway), Robot Dreams squeezing into Animated Feature with just enough room to spare, May December managing to stay in the game just enough to nab an Original Screenplay nod, and Mission: Impossible’s Oscar curse finally coming to an end with the franchise’s first two nominations in Visual Effects and Sound. There’s a lot to celebrate this year – especially with one of the best Best Picture lineups in recent memory – so let’s go over them all again. Here is the full list of nominees for the 96th Annual Academy Awards! BEST PICTURE The Nominees:
BEST DIRECTOR The Nominees:
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BEST ACTOR The Nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The Nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR The Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Nominees:
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM The Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE The Nominees:
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY The Nominees:
BEST FILM EDITING The Nominees:
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Nominees:
BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Nominees:
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG The Nominees:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Nominees:
BEST SOUND The Nominees:
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT The Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT The Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT The Nominees:
What do you think of these nominees? Were there any major snubs on your ballot? Any pleasant surprises? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan  Greetings, all! The second-most-anticipated day of the year is nearly upon us; in just over 24 hours, the Oscar nominations will be unveiled, and we will all see whether our favorite films of the year find favor with the Academy or – as the case may be – are snubbed in favor of other work. Here at The Friendly Film Fan, we too enjoy the guessing games involved with what will be nominated and what is left off the list, and in 2023, many of these races are as exciting as they’ve ever been. Will Leonardo DiCaprio fail to secure a nomination for Killers of the Flower Moon? Will Past Lives surge just enough to squeeze in Greta Lee? Just how in love is the Academy with Penélope Cruz? And below decks, can May December or All of Us Strangers manage to shake up the screenplay categories? Our answers to these questions take the form of selecting the most likely nominees in each category, with 3 wildcard selections for other candidates that may slip in with just enough room to spare. It’s all on the edge of the world’s sharpest knife, just waiting to tilt to one side or the other. Here are our official predictions for the nominations at the 96th Annual Academy Awards! BEST PICTURE Predicted Nominees:
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BEST ACTOR Predicted Nominees
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BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Predicted Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Predicted Nominees:
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Predicted Nominees:
BEST FILM EDITING Predicted Nominees:
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Predicted Nominees:
BEST COSTUME DESIGN Predicted Nominees:
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Predicted Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Predicted Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG Predicted Nominees:
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BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY Predicted Nominees:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Predicted Nominees:
BEST SOUND Predicted Nominees:
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT Predicted Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT Predicted Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT Predicted Nominees:
What do you think of these predictions? Who are you hoping to see nominated? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan  By Jacob Thomas Jones Yorgos Lanthimos, to those familiar with his work, is one of the most striking voices in cinema. Having risen from Dogtooth all the way to Oscar winner The Favourite, his style of direction and storytelling has been one many other artists have sought not simply to emulate, but to embody. The quirks of his characters, the oft atonal yet spellbinding nature of his composers’ musical scores, the unconventionally enrapturing cinematography – all of these set Lanthimos apart, in a league entirely his own such that anyone seeking to copy his style appears at best unprepared and, at worst, a fool. Each time a film of his releases, one gets the distinct sense that no other artist in the world could pull these things off in exactly the way he does; in truth, he is the very definition of a “visionary filmmaker.”
With Poor Things, his latest release starring Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, Willem Dafoe, Ramy Youssef, and Kathryn Hunter, Lanthimos seeks once more to introduce his audience to a world entirely unique to the silver screen and to characters whose beings blossom there before our very eyes. Not only does he succeed in this endeavor (and then some), but there may not have been more appropriate material for such an enterprise. Being in the middle of the Poor Things book, I can say without a doubt that the source material could not be more appropriate for a Yorgos Lanthimos project, particularly wherein it concerns our main character, Bella Baxter (as played by Emma Stone). Bella is a curious creation of scientific experimentation, and as such does not behave, speak, or indeed move in the same way a normal person would in this world. As Dr. Godwin Baxter (Willem Dafoe) puts it so plainly in the film’s trailer, “her brain and her body are not quite synchronized.” Stone has always been a rare talent and has amassed an impressive body of work, but she rises to yet another level with her performance here, dare I say a career-best. She not only embodies the idea of a fearless performer, but lives Bella’s journey in every minute. The thing that’s most impressive about her work in this case is not only that she aces the off-beat movements and speech patterns of Bella in the earlier parts of the film, but that as Bella grows as a person and begins to open up to and explore the world around her, Stone’s performance changes in turn, never once falling behind where the story needs the character to be, or feeling too experienced in the early stages to have the sort of naivety the character would logically require. There’s been quite a lot of hand-wringing regarding the film’s depiction of women’s sexual liberation, or if it indeed can be called that once viewed through a feminist framework, especially considering that early naivety and its proximity to her first sexual experiences. Some have suggested that Bella’s journey is a victim of the male gaze, as exhibited by the absence of menstrual blood in the film or her nudity being near-total in several of her sexual encounters as she comes to discover the world around her, while others have argued that her control in each of these scenes and the fact that she only engages with these things on her own terms – when she wants to – supports the idea that the film is a feminist reading on women’s sexuality as a whole. While I cannot offer a definitive stance in either direction, I lean closer to the latter, though I also am not naïve enough to consider myself a foremost authority on the subject. In either case, Emma Stone’s remarkable turn stands as a testament to her power as an actress; whichever side one finds themselves on, her performance remains unimpeachably impressive. Stone isn’t the only performer turning in impressive work, however. We’ve all known Mark Ruffalo to be a talented actor, but rarely have we ever borne witness to him being this funny. Much of Poor Things’ humor is abrasive, crass, often transgressive in the way it simply shoots out of the script, and while Emma Stone certainly owns the screen and gets most of the funnier moments to herself, Ruffalo ends up getting a lot of humorous moments to play with as well. The joy of watching his work here is as much in his reactions to the way Bella behaves as in what he says in response. It’s in the way Ruffalo carries himself like a spoiled child as soon as things don’t go his way, but switches almost immediately to desperation as soon as he needs something from Bella, only to then switch back when he realizes he can’t get it the way he wants. Compared to his other works, this seems to me to be his most daring stretch to date. As to the filmmaking itself, it is a remarkable feat. What Lanthimos and company have accomplished in this respect is nothing short of astonishing (even with some light pacing issues, in my opinion), particularly wherein it concerns the way the film looks. The production and costume designs are fascinating in all their weirdness, enhanced by Robbie Ryan’s immaculate cinematography. The ultra-wide lensing in lesser hands would feel pretentious or ill-used, but with this film, Ryan clearly understands exactly when and where using it will enhance the story of every frame, never deploying it without purpose, nor holding it so tightly that it appears unnatural when released to the screen. The use of color as Bella’s world begins to grow larger is positively striking, the boldness of them and their contrasts growing more and more as they reflect the levels of nuance Bella’s mind is capable of. Of course, the original score by Jerskin Fendrix is brilliantly utilized in all the right places as well, enhancing the strange, melancholic allure of the world just as thoroughly as Bella’s wonder in traversing it, but there are only so many ways to describe the plucks of the strings and blast of organs in certain scenes before simply referring to such music as one of the best scores of the year because it feels the only way to appropriately describe its irregular beauty. Truly, the world of the film is an experience worth having all its own, even if Bella Baxter were not the one to take us through it. Poor Things will not be for everyone, and in fact, may generally turn a lot of people off to the idea of Yorgos Lanthimos altogether (if one of his previous films hasn’t already), but for movie lovers – and particularly those movie lovers who have a taste for the wonderfully strange – it will surely come as a delightfully weird treat deserving of any number of awards thrown its way. For my own part, although I have little sense of where it would rank in my personal assessment of Lanthimos’ filmography and I am unsure of just how much I like it when compared to other films I’ve seen this year, it is without a doubt among the very best 2023 has had to offer. I’m giving “Poor Things” a 9.7/10 - The Friendly Film Fan  The iconic director returns with his first narrative feature in five years. Martin Scorsese. Over the course of the director’s long and storied career, he’s made a habit of exploring subjects with intense thematic weight, his prolific filmography ever-so-steadily setting the stage for a late-career reflection upon those very subjects. The tone of these explorations varies wildly at points – satire, black comedy, somber melodrama. Yet he often returns to the same themes, over and over again, developing his trademarks as steadily as his craft. From his earliest dives into the psyches of broken men to his escalation in interrogating broken ways of life and then broken systems, Scorsese continues to prod us with the questions of “how,” “who,” “why,” and finally, “what happens now?” But these are not questions answered by the stories he tells; they’re questions for the audience, with no clear or easy answers on the other side. Or, if there are clear or easy answers, they are meant to make us uneasy, force us to reflect. In the case of Killers of the Flower Moon, these questions seem clear-cut at the beginning; by the end, they take on an entirely new form, and their answers bear a crushing, soul-shaking weight.
The Osage. Both subject and object of the story being told. Ernest Burkhart (Leonardo DiCaprio) returns from World War I to Fairfax in Osage County, Oklahoma in order to work for his uncle Bill Hale (Robert De Niro). The Osage who live in the area have become rich after having found oil on their land, though there are certain restrictions placed upon some Osages’ wealth by “sponsors” whose job it is to deem how fit they are to spend their money and how much of it. Upon finding work as a chauffeur – one of the only jobs he can perform due to a wartime injury – Ernest begins to drive around Mollie Kyle, a member of a wealthy Osage family, and Hale takes notice of their proximity to one another, suggesting to Ernest that if he were to pursue Mollie, her estate money would come to them. Ernest and Mollie strike up a bond, marrying soon after their relationship begins. Meanwhile, the Osage begin to die off, one by one, with little or no investigation from the authorities as to what or who may have been the cause of death. Over the next three hours and twenty-six minutes, Scorsese investigates not only what came to be known as the Osage Reign of Terror, but crucially its architects, its enablers, and offers the ultimate rebuke of how stories like it are treated. From a storytelling and craft perspective, Killers of the Flower Moon is an astonishing piece, a great film at first blush which only improves the more time one spends with it. Like all of the director's great works, it almost requires a second viewing to fully appreciate everything it's doing, even if one does pick up on most of it the first time around. There are certainly times in which the film lulls, but it never truly drags, a testament both to editing legend Thelma Schoonmaker's immense and enduring talents, especially paired with Scorsese’s deft storytelling hand; not every minute feels crucial, per se, but every last one of them feels essential nonetheless. Schoonmaker’s work here in particular here could – and probably should – net her yet another Oscar win (this would make it her fourth) and it still wouldn't cover all she's contributed to cinema. That’s to say nothing of the immaculate cinematography by Rodrigo Prieto, whose camera is still when it needs to be, but sweeping in all the right places, as well as the late Robbie Robertson’s final and brilliant score. Robertson’s music is designed specifically to lull the viewer into believing that Killers may be yet another gangster crime movie from Scorsese, but soon gives way to something much more sinister: a case study of evil, racial violence, greed, and complicity. It is, without doubt, one of the best scores of the year. Beyond the technical mastery present around every frame, the film also boasts some of the year’s best work by its towering ensemble cast. (In fact, between this film and Oppenheimer, 2023’s character actor heat sheet is so chock full of great stuff in every margin, it’s difficult to decide which film has the better ensemble overall.) There are any number of great turns, from Jason Isbell to William Belleau to Scott Sheperd to Cara Jade Myers to Louis Cancelmi to Tatanka Means to Tommy Schultz to John Lithgow to Brendan Fraser. But they all rest on the shoulders of the towering three: a top-of-his-game Leonardo DiCaprio, an insidiously sinister Robert De Niro, and a revelatory Lily Gladstone. Of these three lead performances, in fact, DiCaprio comes out in third to my mind, with De Niro’s cold, calculated agent of evil proving the man still knows how to act when he’s put in the right hands. It’s Gladstone who runs away with the film, though; the Native American actress is one of the few performers I’ve ever witnessed who’s able to share scenes with DiCaprio’s alluring star persona and sap all the attention away from him with a single look. Her expressive, weary eyes carry every scene she’s in, and it’s her resilience as Mollie Burkhart that gives the film its great heart and its great tragedy. One scene in particular at the end of the film may contain the single most heartbreaking moment of performance I’ve seen in a movie this year. What truly sets Killers of the Flower Moon apart, though, beyond the technical craft and array of spectacular performances, is its startling ending, a remarkably powerful reflection upon everything we just witnessed and a confrontation of how we’ll move forward from having witnessed it. Without spoiling the specifics of how they are asked, the questions posed by the film’s finale focus on who's telling the story, critiquing how audiences often chew up and spit out true crime tales like it rather than sitting with and digesting what it can teach us, and even rebuking the story’s teller for being the one to do the telling, rather than those whose story this actually is. It’s almost as if Scorsese is asking us: “why am I the one telling this story? Why can’t we give Native filmmakers and storytellers the same chances I’ve had to tell their stories themselves?” Your milage may vary on how sincere those questions actually are coming from an 80-year-old white man who’s one of the most respected names in American filmmaking, but given how respectfully the film treats its subject matter, I’m more than willing to bet that he’s also considered those things, and that if there had been a way for an Osage filmmaker to tell this story with the same level of access, budget, and manpower Scorsese was allowed, the director would have rather they told the story. In the film’s final moments, the audience is confronted with the idea that American institutions often co-opt true crime narratives to fold them into fascinating tales for entertainment’s sake, without actually considering the toll these violent acts have taken on the communities they take place in. Scorsese has been grappling with this concept more and more as he ages, as evidenced by his reflection on early romanticizations on gangster life in The Irishman and questions of faith’s true nature in Silence. In this particular case, he interrogates how Native histories have been twisted in order to prop up those same institutions which did nothing to prevent these atrocities from happening in the first place. The true evil here, beyond the violence itself, is how normal and uninteresting everything about these horrible crimes was to those in power, those who could have actually done something about it, and how we as audiences could possibly expect entertainment from stories like this. In the end, Killers of the Flower Moon is ultimately a movie about complicity, both in times of racial violence, and in the recollection of that violence within a collective psyche. While there are no definitive answers or solutions to these confrontations, there are avenues for change, beginning with the idea that not all crime stories need be entertaining, nor should any Native stories of racial violence be turned a blind eye. And although I’m unsure how this film in particular will pair with the rest of Scorsese’s immense collection of stories, I know that there’s a reason he chose this story now, and I know that it will be sticking with me for a long, long time. I’m giving “Killers of the Flower Moon” a 9.2/10 - The Friendly Film Fan  The Friendly Film Fan Recounts the 95th Academy Awards Winners. Well, here we are the day after the 95th Academy Awards, and it has been a historic moment for Everything Everywhere All at Once as the night’s crowning feature, not only as the film with the most Oscar wins since 2014, securing 7 victories across 11 nominations, but also as the film with the most above-the-line Oscar wins ever and the most-awarded single film ever made across an awards season, raking in a whopping record of 165 total wins and decimating the previous record held by The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King at 101. The success of the Daniels’ second feature with A24 is unprecedented in the modern era, and it will surely go down (at least in our book) as one of the most deserving and all-time greatest Best Picture winners of its era.
Netflix and Edward Berger’s recent adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front enjoyed a modicum of success as well, as the film took home 4 awards, including Best International Feature, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score, and one it was not widely expected to win, Best Production Design. The Whale brought Brendan Fraser his long-awaited comeback Oscar as well as winning the Best Makeup & Hairstyling award, leaving just 3 movies total with multi-category victories, although there were some unexpected surprises and close saves in other areas. Ruth Carter was victorious once again for her Costume Design work on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a deserved win nonetheless) and Sarah Polley manages to pull off a sole win for Women Talking in Best Adapted Screenplay despite the dominance of All Quiet below-the-line. There were a few losses that stung, such as Babylon going winless and no less than five of the Best Picture nominees going home empty handed, including The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, and TÁR (Elvis and Triangle of Sadness losses don’t hurt as much), but apart from that, the night went largely as expected. The ceremony itself was lively, celebratory, and apart from an In Memoriam segment which feels more and more gross the more one considers that a lot of deceased creators were reduced to a QR code in the interest of keeping the show moving (including Best Picture nominee Triangle of Sadness star Charlbi Dean), it all went off largely without a hitch. Jimmy Kimmel had some solid moments of genuine support for the film industry, as well as appropriately told and timed jokes (even the “slap” ones were mostly all un-exhausting), and while the show did run a bit long, none of it felt as if anyone didn’t want to be there. Overall, it was a successful night in many senses (we went 19 for 23 on our predicted winners), and it gives me hope that the future of the Academy is as bright as EEAAO’s star has been throughout the awards season. I’m very much looking forward to next year. A full recap of 2023’s Oscar winners is below. Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Director: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Actor: Brendan Fraser, The Whale Best Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Animated Feature: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio Best International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front Best Documentary Feature: Navalny Best Cinematography: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front Best Film Editing: Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front Best Costume Design: Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Annamarie Bradley, The Whale Best Original Score: Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front Best Original Song: “Naatu Naatu,” RRR Best Adapted Screenplay: Sarah Polley, Women Talking Best Original Screenplay: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick Best Live-Action Short: An Irish Goodbye Best Animated Short: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse Best Documentary Short: The Elephant Whisperers What were your favorite Oscar wins of the night? Any particularly stinging losses? What’s your take on the overall ceremony? Leave us your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for keeping up with The Friendly Film Fan through 2022. Keep an eye out for our awards victors, announced on March 31! - The Friendly Film Fan  The Friendly Film Fan Makes Our FINAL Predictions for What Will Win on Oscar Sunday. Well, here we finally are. After another long but largely fruitful year at the movies, the moment has arrived for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to crown who they believe were the true champions of moviemaking in 2022, and with all the guilds and pre-cursors – including SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA, BAFTA, and Indie Spirit Awards – now out of the way, it’s also time for The Friendly Film Fan to make out predictions as to who will be taking home those golden statues. As with every year, there are plenty of films and there is an immeasurable amount of work that went unrecognized by the Academy in regards to the nominations listed in this piece, such as Park Chan-wook’s stellar direction of Decision to Leave or the fabulous lead performance in Till by Danielle Deadwyler, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t infinitely valuable, nor does it lessen the value or presence of any nomination that is given to a film here either. Simply put, there will always be snubs, surprises, unexpected surges, and deflated campaigns to talk about for as long as there are Oscars ceremonies. But let’s not waste any more time on semantics. It’s time – category by category – to give you our FINAL predictions for the 2023 Academy Award winners. BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers Dark Horse: Haulout Could Steal: Stranger at the Gate Should Have Been Nominated: N/A Admittedly, I haven’t gotten to see all of the Documentary Shorts this year, as the film How Do You Measure a Year? has eluded my eyes, and since Shorts TV doesn’t usually put this category into their programming for theaters during Oscar week, it’s unlikely the film will ever find them before Oscar night. That said, I have seen the other four, and The Elephant Whisperers is the most worthy candidate of those. Not enough people are paying attention to Haulout, however, which may not have the same kind of big studio backing Elephant Whisperers does, but could be every bit as engaging to Oscar voters. As long as Stranger at the Gate doesn’t win, I’ll be satisfied. BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
Will Win: Ice Merchants Dark Horse: An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It Could Steal: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse Should Have Been Nominated: N/A Apple TV+’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse has the advantage going into the night, but this category has always been about underdogs at the Oscars, so I’m putting my chips on the gorgeously-animated Ice Merchants to take the win here. Plus, I ignored my instincts on The Windshield Wiper last year and that was the only category I got wrong, so I’ll go where they tell me to this time. That said, don’t underestimate Ostrich here, which simultaneously doubles as a cheeky meta-existentialist comedy and a demonstration of just how hard stop-motion animators work when bringing their films to life; that sounds like something that could appeal to the craftspeople in the Academy enough to surprise for a win to me. BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT:
Will Win: An Irish Goodbye Dark Horse: Night Ride Could Steal: Le Pupille Should Have Been Nominated: N/A Of the three of these I did get to see, Le Pupille is most poised for success, having multi-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuarón in its corner as a producer, and the sway he holds with the Academy should not be underestimated. With that in mind though, this category seems to be pointing towards a win for An Irish Goodbye, which I have not managed to see, and I’m sure it’s plenty worthy as well. As far as the three I’ve seen, Ivalu is definitely the best-looking, but thematically doesn’t really even reveal what’s up with itself until the tail end, so it doesn’t seem to quite make its point hard enough for Oscar voters to really value it beyond the cinematography. BEST SOUND:
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick Dark Horse: Elvis Could Steal: All Quiet on the Western Front Should Have Been Nominated: Nope If you were in a movie theater at any point in 2022, odds are you saw Avatar: The Way of Water or Top Gun: Maverick, or both, and most likely went back to see the latter of them again and again. You also would have experienced the stellar sound work present in both films, but as Avatar is poised to take a cakewalk with another category, and so much of Maverick’s movie magic hinges on the audience feeling the roars of the F-18s fighter engines as they use flares to dodge radar-guided SAMs, it’s safe to say that Top Gun takes a slice of gold home here. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front Could Steal: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: Nope You don’t need me – or anyone else – to help you predict this category. Avatar walks. BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY:
Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once Dark Horse: Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans Could Steal: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin Should Have Been Nominated: Charlotte Wells, Aftersun or Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave or Jordan Peele, Nope While there are certainly plenty of other original screenplays like Aftersun or Decision to Leave that probably should have been nominated here, this is one of the most solid Original Screenplay lineups in some time, which makes picking a winner more difficult than predicting one. For a while it seemed like this win could go to Martin McDonagh’s great work on The Banshees of Inisherin, but as awards season has continued and the guilds have come and gone, another narrative has taken shape; given its prevalence in the nominations and the significant love the Academy clearly has for it, Everything Everywhere All at Once is most likely to win this category. That said, the award really should be going to Todd Field for his astounding work on TÁR. If your screenplay is so lived-in and knowledgeable that it manages to convince entire throngs of critics that your lead character must have been a real person, you should win something for it, at least in my view. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Will Win: Sarah Polley, Women Talking Dark Horse: Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Could Steal: Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front Should Have Been Nominated: Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said Adapted Screenplay may seem easy to predict considering how weak of a category it is this time around, but with All Quiet on the Western Front picking up nine nominations, it shouldn’t be underestimated as a potential upset winner in this race, even if the adaptation element of it is what everyone who’s read the book claims is the weakest of its many facets. With that in mind, of its two nominations, this is the only one that Women Talking is likely to win, and with Sarah Polley not appearing in Best Director, the Academy could be looking at this as a way to “make up” for not nominating her in that category. BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu,” RRR Dark Horse: “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman Could Steal: “Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: “The Songcord,” Avatar: The Way of Water Original Song is a weird category. Here’s a collection of music written for movies, but only one of which is an essential piece of that film’s narrative momentum, and most of which don’t appear in the movies themselves. Remember what I said earlier about the two biggest movies of the year being Avatar and Top Gun? Well, in a manner of speaking, RRR is just as big as those two, just not financially. But pop into a screening of the Indian smash hit at any repertory theater in any major city, and you are sure to find a crowd just as into this movie as you’re likely to be, one of its key moments being the performance of “Naatu Naatu,” which is both my personal choice and my prediction for this category. There simply isn’t a better time musically to have at the movies, and it’s unlikely we’ll get a song that so takes the movie world by storm like this one has. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will Win: Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front Dark Horse: Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once Could Steal: Justin Hurwitz, Babylon Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: Michael Giacchino, The Batman Babylon is the best score of the year, hands down, and should easily be winning this category…but something tells me that All Quiet on the Western Front had just enough momentum going into the voting rounds to edge out Justin Hurwitz’ phenomenal work, and with Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio and Women Talking absent the nominations in favor of a surprise inclusion for Everything Everywhere All at Once, there’s not a lot it has to compete with. The real question of this category is: how does anyone in their right mind leave Michael Giacchino’s fantastic score for The Batman off the shortlist? Unconscionable. BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
Will Win: Elvis Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front Could Steal: The Whale Should Have Been Nominated: Everything Everywhere All at Once or The Woman King I may not have been the biggest fan of Elvis as a movie, but it does feature some phenomenal craftwork to help viewers stay engaged. The Academy loves a well-worn prosthetic, but while the one Brendan Fraser wears in The Whale might be harder to make, the ethics of fat suits in movies like it have come under heavy fire recently, and Tom Hanks’ neck is sitting right there anyway, so it’s less of a risk to give it to that film. (And it doesn’t hurt that they nailed Austin Butler’s hair looking a certain way as Elvis goes through the eras either.) BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will Win: Elvis Dark Horse: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Could Steal: Elvis Should Have Been Nominated: The Woman King This is one of the trickier categories to predict, not because so many things are in contention or because there’s a tight divide between two nominees; there just hasn’t been an out-and-out frontrunner here, even if Babylon and Elvis are the two most likely to take it. For my money, Elvis is where this will go, but I could easily see myself getting that one incorrect, and it’s not one I’d be upset about. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Will Win: Babylon Dark Horse: The Fabelmans Could Steal: Elvis Should Have Been Nominated: Everything Everywhere All at Once The most-nominated movie this year missed out on Production Design, but since Hollywood loves when you can make them look like themselves, Babylon has the edge here by a decent stretch. Don’t underestimate Elvis, though. With all the craftwork in that movie being nominated, a win here could easily top off a design category win streak. BEST FILM EDITING:
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once Dark Horse: TÁR Could Steal: Top Gun: Maverick Should Have Been Nominated: Decision to Leave For the past two years, it’s been true that if you win Best Sound, you win Best Film Editing. It’s also been said that the Academy loves to reward the film with the most editing in this space, rather than the best, but two years doesn’t make a habit, and the momentum behind Everything Everywhere All at Once right now indicates that Top Gun will not be landing the plane here this time around. Plus, the editing in EEAAO is key to ensuring that the audience understands what’s going on at all amongst all the noise; the story is made by the editing, whereas with Top Gun, the editing is more about making sure the whole ride flows smoothly even though its frankly underrated script is doing most of the legwork in helping us understand its intense stakes. That said, it could still win here; my instincts are just saying otherwise. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Will Win: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front Dark Horse: Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR Could Steal: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: Greig Fraser, The Batman and Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick One could feel the collective gasp in the air when TÁR was announced as the last of the Best Cinematography nominees and we all realized seconds later that Top Gun: Maverick, the favorite in the race since the beginning and the most winning film in the category up to that point, had missed out on a slot for these nominations entirely. Even more shocking was the fact that the film which took its place wasn’t expected to acquire a nomination here at all. Sure, The Batman wasn’t exactly a long shot and absolutely deserved to be there, but Bardo was always fighting tooth and nail with that film for a Cinematography nod and try as they might, the Academy just can’t resist the way Iñárritu’s movies look (even if it’s more distracting than inviting) and giving into genre bias. Top Gun wasn’t expected to have any such problem, but that then left open the most obvious second place finisher to walk with the gold in All Quiet on the Western Front. Everything else feels more like a formality. (TÁR was an inspired choice, though. I’ll give them props on that.) BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will Win: Navalny Dark Horse: All That Breathes Could Steal: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed Should Have Been Nominated: The Territory For a minute, it seemed as if All the Beauty and the Bloodshed might take this category, but now that the guilds have largely given it to Navalny, there’s not much indication of that momentum changing. The film does contain one of the stand-out scenes in any movie last year with the phone call where Alexei Navalny manages to get one of Putin’s operatives to admit trying to kill him via poisoning, so it’s not hard to see why it went over well with so many voters during awards season, especially as the Ukraine/Russia war entered its second year mere days ago. It is a shame, though, that The Territory was so shut out of landing a nomination here, as it’s probably my favorite documentary of the year; of course Fire of Love was NatGeo’s best bid, but it wouldn’t have hurt to spread the love around a little. BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) Dark Horse: The Quiet Girl (Ireland) Could Steal: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: Decision to Leave (South Korea) Easily the most egregious snub of the Oscar nominations, it is borderline criminal that Decision to Leave did not make the International Feature nominations despite its widespread acclaim, well-respected director, and powerhouse performances and writing. If that were nominated, another film could be in trouble here, but as happens in every instance in which this occurs, if you want to know what’s winning Best International Feature, look to see if any of them are nominated for Best Picture. All Quiet on the Western Front has this in the bag. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio Dark Horse: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Could Steal: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: N/A I didn’t get to see as many animated films this past year as the year before, at least not in theaters, but I am fairly satisfied with how the nominations turned out. Having not seen The Sea Beast, I can’t personally speak to whether or not it deserves to be there, but with Lightyear being a disappointment and Wendell & Wild frankly not being very good, there weren’t a ton of places for this category to go than towards the expected four (even if a Mad God nomination would have blown the doors off). For me, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is the category’s best work this year, but it does contain some live-action elements that may ultimately disqualify it from many voters’ personal picks, whereas Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio – also a lovely film – actually is entirely animated through stunning stop-motion. The mere fact that Pinocchio was also gunning for some other nominations in different categories, and the fact that it’s won everywhere else, is nothing if not a guaranteed indicator that it wins here too. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once Dark Horse: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin Could Steal: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: Paul Dano, The Fabelmans Apart from perhaps Best Visual Effects, this should be the easiest award of the night to predict. Barry Keoghan BAFTA win aside, there’s not one guild or critics group that hasn’t fallen for Ke Huy Quan’s enormous heart and emotional speeches every time he wins for Everything Everywhere All at Once, a movie in which his comeback performance is as much the star of the show as Michelle Yeoh. There’s a reason lines like “In another life, I would have really liked just doing laundry and taxes with you” hit so close to home and it’s because of how Ke Huy Quan delivers them so expertly for maximum heartbreak and depth. And that’s BEFORE we get into all the stunt work he does in those fanny pack fight scenes. The Oscars love a comeback narrative, mostly to strike down, but this one they’ll be celebrating with all the rest of us. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once Dark Horse: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once Could Steal: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Should Have Been Nominated: Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy, Women Talking I’m definitely not the first to say this and surely won’t be the last, but it is odd that a film with performances as good as Women Talking – which is made up almost entirely of supporting performances – couldn’t land a single acting nomination in a category where they should have had at least two. In fact, due to that and a few other factors, there’s not really a front-runner in this category either. Angela Bassett (who did the thing) won the Globe, Condon has the BAFTA, and the SAG went to Jamie Lee Curtis, whose performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once most pundits agree is the lesser of the two nominated Supporting Actress performances. That said, I can’t see the Academy – with its genre bias and still largely old, white, and male voting body – wanting to reward an MCU performance even if it does figure into the legacy Oscar question, so any legacy votes will probably fall to the subtle but steady approach of Jamie Lee Curtis, and unfortunately, that legacy question is too powerful amongst Academy voters to underestimate, especially as EEAAO is poised to dominate the ceremony as it’s dominated the awards season wholesale. If Banshees is poised to win anything on Oscar night, this is the most likely spot for them to make it happen, but I have a sinking feeling that even here, McDonagh’s Irish fable goes winless. BEST ACTOR:
Will Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale Dark Horse: N/A Could Steal: Austin Butler, Elvis Should Have Been Nominated: Daniel Kaluuya, Nope I’ve gone back and forth on this category for months, but over time, the race has become crystal clear: it’s Butler vs. Fraser. Whichever of those two triumphs on Oscar night will be a worthy winner in my book, but with the actors branch of the Academy being its largest, and Fraser walking away with the SAG win, the path to victory is starting to look just clear enough for him to pull ahead. Then again, the Oscars do love to do the bare minimum with historical and comeback narratives (remember how Parasite got 0 acting nominations and Glenn Close lost a sure thing?), , and they clearly love Elvis, so I’m still trepidatious at best in this category. BEST ACTRESS:
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once Dark Horse: Ana de Armas, Blonde Could Steal: Cate Blanchett, TÁR Should Have Been Nominated: Danielle Deadwyler, Till and Tang Wei, Decision to Leave As with Best Actor, this is most likely a case of the SAG win over Cate Blanchett indicating a path to victory for Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once, but it’s even less of a sure thing because Cate Blanchett in TÁR is really that astounding. Part of what makes Lydia Tár feel like a real person that existed is in the screenplay, yes, but the other part of it is in how Blanchett delivers her dialogue with such ease and comfortability. Even now I’m doubting that Yeoh will have enough support to pull Blanchett away from a third win, but the EEAAO love is strong, and that SAG win has to count for something. BEST DIRECTOR:
Will Win: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once Dark Horse: Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness Could Steal: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans Should Have Been Nominated: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave Ah, the old early frontrunner fallout. It happens every year to a film that’s pegged as the “awards favorite” until the tide starts to turn because people got tired of hearing that narrative being churned out too early. The Fabelmans fell victim to that in almost every category apart from Best Director for a while, until the Daniels began picking up wins and Spielberg’s chances vanished as they came. Imagine telling someone in 1996 that Steven Spielberg would lose Best Director to two guys who made a movie about a farting corpse and a multiversal nihilist bagel. Still, the Daniels have been racking up wins everywhere they go, and there’s no indication they’ll stop now. BEST PICTURE:
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once Dark Horse: TÁR Could Steal: The Banshees of Inisherin Should Have Been Nominated: Babylon When (not if) Everything Everywhere All at Once wins Best Picture, it will have been the earliest film released since The Silence of the Lambs to go the distance. That’s right, since 1991, no movie that’s released in the first quarter of the year has managed to win Best Picture, but with just how many guild awards EEAAO has picked up, it would be foolish to bet against it now. PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG all gave it their highest award, even when they didn’t have to as with PGA. That’s the kind of support that doesn’t come along very often, and unlike CODA’s surge last year, which managed to vault it over The Power of the Dog at the last minute, EEAAO has been enjoying that love for its entire run across theater runs, VOD, streaming, and a theatrical re-release. Even during its second time releasing in theaters as the Oscar nominations were announced, it was one of the highest-grossing re-releases of the year (not that anything was touching Top Gun: Maverick). People love this movie, they want to support it, and no other film on the list takes elements as disparate as these and creates a narrative that only moves but delights. The Oscars love a feel-good ending, but what they love the most is a feel-good ending that shouldn’t work when it does. And that is why Everything Everywhere All at Once will be your winner for Best Picture. And those are our FINAL predictions for the winners at the 2023 Oscars! What/who do you think will be snagging statuettes at this year’s ceremony? Are you hoping for any upsets or surprises in particular? Let us know in the comments section below, and we’ll see you back here for our winners recap on March 13th!
- The Friendly Film Fan |
