 The Friendly Film Fan Selects What Will and What Should Win at the 98th Academy Awards Well, the time is finally here. After a long and far too protracted awards season (seriously, Academy, put the Oscars back in late February), we’ve finally arrived at that fateful day. Tomorrow, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will unveil their choices for the best in film of 2025, and we’ll all be there to witness all the triumph, the chaos, and hopefully, a few unexpected surprises. To that end, it’s time for our final round of Oscar predictions for this season. It’s been a doozy from start to finish; some races have been more or less sewn up for months, others still have multiple viable paths to a win for multiple nominees within the same category with no common consensus for what would take the lead if just one more awards ceremony took place prior to this year’s Academy Awards. Historic nomination tallies, dominant awards season runs for multiple films, significant momentum shifts, and a brand new category introduced for this year alone; it’s been exciting, vexing, and all around a far more interesting season than any we’ve had so far this decade. The players are set, and all that’s left to do is see which of them stands to share in the glory and spoils (and which dark horses are waiting in the wings like Lewis Hamilton, ready to fly straight up a split middle at a moment’s notice). One last time, here are our final predictions for the 98th Annual Academy Awards.  BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT The Nominees:
Should Win: The Devil is Busy Could Steal: The Devil is Busy Dark Horse: Perfectly a Strangeness Should Have Been Nominated: Bad Hostage The shorts categories, by and large, are always a crap shoot if one hasn’t managed to access them all by the time the ceremony starts, and unfortunately that lack of accessibility often translates to the most widely available film in each of the three shorts categories taking the win, rather than what’s actually the best. Luckily, however, the lead contenders for the Best Documentary Short prize this year are both widely accessible, with All the Empty Rooms being on Netflix and The Devil is Busy being on HBO Max. Personally, I’d like to see The Devil is Busy win here, as it’s the most well-rounded film of the bunch, but I wouldn’t bet against the other title either. Netflix has been fairly dominant in this category, even when their winning film was one of the weakest entries, so predicting another win for them here – despite wishing otherwise – seems like the right call.  BEST ANIMATED SHORT The Nominees:
Should Win: Butterfly Could Steal: Retirement Plan Dark Horse: The Girl Who Cried Pearls Should Have Been Nominated: Snow Bear Don’t be surprised if Retirement Plan steals a not-so-slightly unexpected win in this category; it’s the definition of short, so it’s also the most easily digestible of the five, and yet, this branch often likes to go for something deeper, which is why I’m placing my bets on the painted portrait of a holocaust survivor in Butterfly. That said, I wouldn’t underestimate The Girl Who Cried Pearls either; stop motion animation is extremely difficult to pull off, so there’s a chance (albeit miniscule) that the Academy recognizes that difficulty and elects to reward the effort instead.  BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT The Nominees:
Should Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva Could Steal: The Singers Dark Horse: A Friend of Dorothy Should Have Been Nominated: N/A The “should win” is an easy one here; Two People Exchanging Saliva is the superior film to all the others, even if it’s not the most obvious nominee of the bunch, and given that Netflix is most likely to win the Documentary Shorts category, I find it unlikely – though hardly impossible – that they would go two for two with both All the Empty Rooms and The Singers. Still, stranger things have happened, and let’s not discount A Friend of Dorothy’s sweetness being able to work a number on Academy voters.  BEST SOUND The Nominees:
Should Win: F1 Could Steal: Sinners Dark Horse: Sirāt Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: Avatar: Fire and Ash This choice seems like a simple one, until one remembers just how dominant Sinners is with its nomination tally; there’s a high chance it could steal the spotlight here and shift things in a big way as the night goes on, but the safest bet here is also probably the most assured. The fact of the matter is that sound design in movies about fast vehicles often triumphs in the category, even with a category combining mixing and editing, and F1 is in position one for a win, especially given Joseph Kosinski’s previous film – Top Gun: Maverick – also won in this category.  BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Nominees:
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: The Lost Bus Should Have Been Nominated: Superman Even more than the Best Actress race, this one was over before it ever began. Avatar: Fire and Ash is the most stunning visual effects achievement of the year, and it wouldn’t be a competition even if it only looked just as good as Way of Water, instead of somehow better.  BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
Should Win: Jafar Pahani, It Was Just an Accident or Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme Should Have Been Nominated: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby If there’s one guaranteed Oscar Ryan Coogler is likely to win, it’s in this category. He’s won the WGA for Original Screenplay, as well as the BAFTA, the HCA, and a host of critics prizes where there is a featured split between original and adapted works. The only loss he’s taken so far was at the Golden Globes, where there’s only one screenplay category that combines both original and adapted; that award went to One Battle after Another, which is not competing in this category at all, so a Sinners win doesn’t just feel likely – it feels inevitable. Still, it’s a shame that the two best original screenplays of the year don’t really stand a chance at overcoming those odds and surprising us all with a true upset.  BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another Could Steal: Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao, Hamnet Dark Horse: Jang Joo-hwan and Will Tracy, Bugonia Should Have Been Nominated: Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice Much like the category before it, Adapted Screenplay is more or less sewn up tight with a likely win for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, especially as that film occupies the space of the current Best Picture frontrunner. However, if a truly bizarre upset were to occur, Hamnet would be the most likely culprit. Academy voters have a particular fondness for Chloé Zhao’s family tragedy, and with a preferential balloting system driving voting, there’s a non-zero chance that it could pull more votes than we think.  BEST ORIGINAL SONG The Nominees:
Should Win: “I Lied to You,” Sinners Could Steal: “I Lied to You,” Sinners Dark Horse: “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams Should Have Been Nominated: “Highest 2 Lowest,” Highest 2 Lowest or “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet," Come See Me in the Good Light With all the momentum flowing in KPop Demon Hunters’ direction, it can be difficult to even conceive of “Golden” losing this award, but personally, I find “I Lied to You” so essential to the story of Sinners that maybe it should win instead. Nevertheless, a mainstream pop hit is a rare thing for the Academy Awards to have in their arsenal, and as one of the only two original songs being performed at the ceremony (likely for the show’s opening), a “Golden” win is their best chance to embrace the mainstream crowd in this category.  BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Nominees:
Should Win: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Max Richter, Hamnet Should Have Been Nominated: Daniel Lopatin, Marty Supreme What is with the Academy’s score branch ignoring electronically-based music even when it’s featured in one of the absolute best scores of the year? Marty Supreme should be here, just as Challengers should have been last year, and yet even if it was, no score this year was as memorable or truly original as that of Ludwig Göransson’s for Sinners. Göransson has become somewhat of a force of nature for this category, already having racked up two wins with his Black Panther and Oppenheimer scores, and may well be on his way to a fourth should The Odyssey prove the awards juggernaut it’s believed it could be. That’s a level of repeat success only enjoyed by a rare class of musician, but when the music is this good, who’s complaining about getting more of it?  BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Nominees:
Should Win: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, & Cliona Furey, Frankenstein Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Thomas Foldberg and Anne Catherine Sauerberg, The Ugly Stepsister Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: 28 Years Later Frankenstein and its director, Guillermo Del Toro, are clearly loved by the Academy at large, evidenced by the film’s total tally of 9 nominations – which ties both Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme – most of them in craft categories. Its strongest craft work is the makeup done for Jacob Elordi’s Creature character, and Del Toro’s films are not simply mainstays in this category; they often dominate it. It’s doubtful that the film goes much further than the three awards it’s likely to win as a handsomely mounted production of a classic novel, but those wins will be well-earned nonetheless.  BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Nominees:
Should Win: Ruth E. Carter, Sinners Could Steal: Ruth E. Carter, Sinners Dark Horse: Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet Should Have Been Nominated: Colleen Atwood, One Battle after Another One Battle after Another missing Costume Design but landing a nod in Production Design was a curveball almost no one saw coming, and it’s sad to know that Colleen Atwood’s instantly iconic looks for both Bob and Willa Ferguson will go unrecognized in an official capacity by the Academy. That said, the Avatar: Fire and Ash nomination is an inspired choice; the Ash tribe’s look is crucial to how the audience perceives their intentions, and on displays, those costumes look incredibly intricate and specific. Avatar won’t win though, as this remains one of the three design categories for which Frankenstein is likely to clean house. The Academy loves period pieces when it comes to the design work, and Frankenstein gets the closest to being one that’s more recognizable to a certain crop of voters than anything else on the list does, even if Ruth E. Carter’s designs for Sinners (in my opinion) are the more deserving option. It takes real talent to recycle costumes that were originally going to be part of a now-dead Blade movie and actually accentuate their strengths even further.  BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Nominees:
Should Win: Jack Fisk, Marty Supreme or Hannah Beachler, Sinners Could Steal: Hannah Beachler, Sinners Dark Horse: Jack Fisk, Marty Supreme Should Have Been Nominated: Jørgen Stangebye Larsen, Sentimental Value Another award I personally feel should be going to Sinners for the stunning concept art being brought to life in such tactile and instantly iconic ways, Production Design marks what will likely be the final time we see a Frankenstein win take place. No matter how digital the camera and lighting makes the sets look at times, the breadth of practicality with which Tamara Deverell designed them is impressive. With that in mind, dear Academy who is definitely reading this, let’s not take too much longer to give Jack Fisk an Oscar, okay? That wouldn’t be great.  BEST FILM EDITING The Nominees:
Should Win: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle after Another Could Steal: Stephen Mirrione, F1 Dark Horse: Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value Should Have Been Nominated: N/A Gone is the notion that the “most editing” always translates to the “best editing” for the Academy Awards. Not since the days of Ford v Ferrari have we seen a film with the number of cuts F1 has actually win after garnering a nomination, and the focus of the award now seems to be centered on how invisible or how smooth the edit feels over the course of the film. That puts Andy Jurgensen in the best position for his work on One Battle After Another to walk up to the stage and accept the award, although F1’s fast-cutting speed racing may be only tenths of a second behind.  BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY The Nominees:
Should Win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners Could Steal: Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams Dark Horse: Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: Jingsong Dong, Resurrection For a long time, it was believed that Autumn Durald Arkapaw would triumph in the Cinematography category for her stellar work in Sinners, with some suggesting that Adolpho Veloso’s photography in Train Dreams would be the win that dashed those hopes. Then, Michael Bauman started winning awards, the BSC and the ASC specifically, for his VistaVision-shot work on One Battle after Another, some word came out that other DPs were not particular fans of the shadow work in Sinners, and the whole race got flipped on its head. Bauman’s cinematography is excellent, but it’s hard not to feel a bit disappointed that a woman – more specifically a woman of color – was in the lead to win the category, and now just isn’t anymore. In any case, the Academy’s unfortunate erasure of Resurrection from the nominations pool means that Jingsong Dong can never receive his well-deserved flowers for the actual best cinematography of the year.  BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE The Nominees:
Should Win: The Alabama Solution Could Steal: Mr. Nobody Against Putin Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow or 2000 Meters to Andriivka The Documentary Feature category is a tough one to crack sometimes (especially when it comes to nominations), but this year, there stands one clear frontrunner above all others. The Perfect Neighbor is most likely to win here, and was one of my favorite films of 2025, even if my professional opinion is that The Alabama Solution is a better documentary overall. It helps that the film has been widely accessible to mass audiences since October, while films like Mr. Nobody Against Putin – a fairly solid documentary with some bizarre ethical failings – remains stuck behind one’s needing to rent or purchase it in order to see it, but it doesn’t make up for the fact that both of the two best Russia-centric documentaries this year, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow and 2000 Meters to Andriivka, were left out of the nominations entirely when even one of them making it would have sufficed (personal, I prefer the former).  BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM The Nominees:
Should Win: Sentimental Value (Norway) Could Steal: The Secret Agent (Brazil) Dark Horse: Sirāt (Spain) Should Have Been Nominated*/Submitted**: No Other Choice (South Korea)* or Resurrection (China)** What did Park Chan-wook do to the Academy for them to treat him the way they do by refusing to recognize him properly? No Other Choice is one of the director’s best works, and it’s a shame that not only did AMPAS not nominate it in this category, they didn’t nominate it for anything at all (even for one of the screenplay awards). I suppose the idea is that a Korean satire of capitalism and blind ambition driving desperate people to do unseemly things to succeed already won Best Picture in 2020, but why shouldn’t that mean that one can get nominated again? Not even for this? I digress. As for the nominees that are here, people can thank the nine nominations Sentimental Value picked up – including four acting nods – for putting it back in first place after it was feared The Secret Agent could usurp it for the top spot. (R.I.P. Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident; your initial awards momentum will be missed.) However, The Secret Agent is far from dead, and if anything were to take this award away from my personal favorite film of last year, it would likely be the other Best Picture nominee from this category, which also shows up in Best Casting and Best Actor for Wagner Moura. I don’t think it’s likely that it takes the win personally, but it wouldn’t be the craziest upset that could happen this year.  BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Nominees:
Should Win: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain Should Have Been Nominated: N/A The dominance of KPop Demon Hunters over song and animation categories culminates with this race, in which it has such a huge lead, the other nominees might as well stop running altogether (though they shouldn’t). If it were up to me, I would give this award to Arco or Little Amélie since the frontrunner has some story problems I think bring it down as a narrative experience, but as you’ve probably surmised by now, it’s not up to me. This is the KPop Demon Hunters award, and with news of a newly-announced sequel on the way, the film’s brand shows no signs of slowing down.  BEST CASTING The Nominees:
Should Win: Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme Could Steal: Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle after Another Dark Horse: Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent Should Have Been Nominated: Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman, Sentimental Value The newest category to be added to the Oscars slate, Best Casting is one category where I’m not really sure what to expect or what it’s supposed to look like in practice. The prevailing theory is that Sinners’ win at SAG for Best Ensemble could easily translate to a win here, but a Best Ensemble award and a Best Casting award aren’t quite the same thing, which leaves a lot of room for wiggle room for another candidate to take home the win. Marty Supreme and The Secret Agent are front of mind in this regard, as both films’ use of non-actors and industry vets stretching different screen muscles do a lot to lift their narratives surrounding the category. Whatever the category looks like once the fab five chosen for it are actually up on stage, it wouldn’t be the wisest thing to bet against Sinners here.  BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR The Nominees:
Should Win: Sean Penn, One Battle after Another or Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value Could Steal: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value Dark Horse: Delroy Lindo, Sinners Should Have Been Nominated: Paul Mescal, Hamnet Despite rumors circling that Delroy Lindo could pull a Marcia Gay Harden and win the category in a major upset without any precursor wins to speak of, Best Supporting Actor still feels like a two-horse race to me, and which horse one bets on depends on whether one thinks the Academy is more eager to reward legacy or showiness. Stellan Skarsgård, whose work has been highly lauded for decades and who ascends to new heights in Sentimental Value, has both the Golden Globe and the fact that he’s never won an Oscar before behind him; the Academy could see this as their chance to reward him not just for one of his absolute best performances, but a long career of great work (plus, with no international nominees appearing in the SAG nominations at all, it’s not as though Sean Penn had Skarsgård to compete against). To his credit, Delroy Lindo does share a similar narrative as far as legacy is concerned, so dismissing him entirely wouldn’t be smart. On the other hand, Sean Penn did win at the BAFTAs – an international awards show – and at the SAG Awards, which suggests a great deal of strength in this category, and we know this Academy does not care about rewarding repeat winners if the performance is strong enough (see Adrien Brody and Emma Stone), so a third Sean Penn win is far from out of the question. With One Battle after Another unlikely to pick up another acting win besides this one, I’ve elected to stick with Sean Penn as the most likely winner over Skarsgård, though I truly will be fine with a win for either one. It’s just a shame Paul Mescal’s achingly vulnerable supporting turn in Hamnet couldn’t quite crack this group of five.  BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The Nominees:
Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value Could Steal: Amy Madigan, Weapons Dark Horse: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value Should Have Been Nominated: Miriam Afshari, It Was Just an Accident Most people were shocked, myself included, when Elle Fanning’s name came up as the Supporting Actress nominees were announced; with little to no precursor nominations to speak of, including a miss at SAG for the only American cast member in Sentimental Value, it didn’t seem like she would overcome the international shutout in the same way that the film’s other principal actors would once the international Academy got a hold of their nominee submissions. Fanning’s work in Sentimental Value is some of the absolute best of her career, so her inclusion here isn’t nothing, but neither do I think of her as the supporting actress from the film with the best chance at a win. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, though she’s been working for many years in much smaller fare, is a real discovery for worldwide audience members, and sometimes a great “come out of nowhere” performance like hers can attract enough support to pull off a win in this category. The two lead contenders, though, are Amy Madigan (SAG and Critics’ Choice winner in this category) and Wunmi Mosaku (BAFTA winner). Teyana Taylor is still very much in the mix, but with no significant wins since the Golden Globes, she’s sitting in a comfortable third place right next to Lilleaas. Neither SAG nor Critics’ Choice match up perfectly with this category historically, but neither does BAFTA, so who wins between Madigan and Mosaku is more likely to come down to who has the momentum at any given time. There is a long history of the Academy awarding Best Supporting Actress to the sole nominee attached to a film, as is the case with Madigan and Weapons, and the instant Halloween icon that is Aunt Gladys is nothing to sneeze at, but with an increasingly international Academy unlikely to consider Madigan’s legacy in American films as a data point, and Sinners holding the all-time nomination tally, I’ve selected Wunmi Mosaku as my choice for a win. It’s a risky move if one considers the math of it more important than the vibes, but I’ve got an instinct that Mosaku’s rising star over the past few years – especially as more people have gotten a chance to catch up to her stellar performance in the Netflix film His House – may just line up with the number of votes needed to swing into winning position.  BEST ACTOR The Nominees:
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme Could Steal: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle after Another Should Have Been Nominated: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams or Jesse Plemons, Bugonia The category giving every awards prognosticator the migraine of a lifetime amongst the thrill of unknowability, Best Actor is anybody’s guess for who takes home the gold this year. On the one hand, Timothée Chalamet’s resurfaced comments on ballet and opera didn’t quite go viral before voting closed and of the five nominees, he’s the only one to hold two major wins with both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards locked up; on the other hand, Chalamet’s momentum was already slowing when Michael B. Jordan won the Best Actor award at SAG smack in the middle of Oscar voting, and Jordan’s been working steadily in the industry since he was a kid on HBO’s The Wire, and came extremely close to a nomination for his work in Coogler’s other Best Picture-nominated film, Black Panther, so he’s got a long legacy of great work behind him to boost his chances. Plus, Chalamet’s Golden Globe win is shared with Wagner Moura since the lead acting categories for that show are split into Drama and Musical or Comedy, so it’s not as though he was going up against Moura directly, and one wonders if he would have triumphed in an industry-centered head-to-head fight. Also, there is one interesting wrinkle to the whole race; according to The Big Picture podcast co-host Sean Fennessy, there has been some speculation floating around that Leonardo DiCaprio was probably in second place for a BAFTA win, which ultimately went to Robert Aramayo for the British Tourette’s drama I Swear, a non-starter for the Academy Awards. The BAFTA Best Actor winner has lined up with an Oscars win nine out of the last ten years (prior to this season), and even though stats and math don’t matter as much to this new Academy (so DiCaprio already having an Oscar may not be a factor), that’s a hard level of consistency to ignore. Then again, one should never underestimate the international contingent, and especially the Brazilian portion of that contingent, in boosting their films and stars to success; a Wager Moura win here is unlikely, but with the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a drama, the likely vote-splitting between Chalamet and Jordan, and the fact that the Brazilian lead acting contender last year – Fernanda Torres – did not ultimately win her category despite strong momentum going into the race, there’s a narrow but very clear path for Moura to correct that record. Whatever happens, whoever wins, only one certainty remains abundantly, absolutely clear: this one is a nail-biter all the way to the finish.  BEST ACTRESS The Nominees:
Should Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You Could Steal: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You Dark Horse: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value Should Have Been Nominated: Chase Infiniti, One Battle after Another or Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby At least there’s one acting prize that’s not up in the air going into Oscar night. Jessie Buckley is winning this category for her stellar, soul-bearing performance in Hamnet, and it’s not an especially close race (even though I would personally love to see a Rose Byrne win more for her thornier, more bracing performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). Buckley has been in the lead all season and shows no signs of slowing down at all, having built a steady body of great work for nearly a decade on which she’s been able to climb towards the top of the mountain, and now she’s reached the summit with the industry ready to place a crown on her head and gold in her hand; it’s a near-identical playbook to the one that got Sean Baker a five-win package for Anora last year. Hamnet is very much Buckley’s film before it’s anyone else’s, and if she’s not giving the performance she is, the film doesn’t quite pull off the intended effect on its audience. Congratulations, Jessie Buckley; you have nothing to prove, and yet, you’ve proved it all anyway.  BEST DIRECTOR The Nominees:
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another Could Steal: Ryan Coogler, Sinners Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: Bi Gan, Resurrection This race is more or less an open and shut case. Even if one were to believe an upset is possible (and it is possible), the likelihood of anyone in this category taking down Paul Thomas Anderson is so low it’d be foolish to predict it, even if Ryan Coogler is the only other person in the category who could. Each of these candidates would be worthy of their own award in any other year (and some have won this category before), but the legacy of PTA’s filmography, the fact that he doesn’t have a single Oscar yet, the DGA win, PGA win, and a host of other factors all point to the same conclusion: PTA will win Best Director following a very good night for One Battle after Another – including a win in Best Adapted Screenplay for PTA – and our next category will be just about sewn up.  BEST PICTURE The Nominees:
Should Win: One Battle after Another Could Steal: Sinners Dark Horse: Sentimental Value Should Have Been Nominated: It Was Just an Accident The ultimate showdown of this year comes down to exactly two films: One Battle after Another and Sinners, both of which are some of their respective directors most widely acclaimed films, and both of which had stellar box office runs during their main releases this past year, which means they were both widely seen. There are paths for either one to take a win, especially in a Director/Picture split, but the ultimate victory simply comes down to where Academy members place them on a preferential ballot, and which path holds more sway. Both have stellar win packages as they approach the finish line. Sinners has SAG Ensemble, a WGA win for Original Screenplay, a SAG Best Actor win for Michael B. Jordan, an ACE Eddie award, and the most Oscar nominations of all time, a Best Picture package as concrete as there’s ever been. Then again, One Battle after Another has…well, basically everything else – PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE Eddie, ASC, even some makeup and costume design awards for contemporary film; so far, it’s had the most dominant run for a Best Picture nominee in Oscars history. Should a split happen, leading to a Sinners win, it would be one the largest upsets ever from a pure data perspective. However, the likeliest outcome is also the one I’ve gone with here, and the one I personally think should happen: One Battle after Another will win the big one, and Ryan Coogler’s Oscar will be for his near-guaranteed win in Original Screenplay. And those are our predictions for the 98th Annual Academy Awards! What do you think is going to take home the gold? Are you as shaky as we are in Best Actor? Any surprises you’re hoping for? Let us know in the comments section below, and stay tuned for our full recap of the 2026 Oscars on Monday, March 16! Thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan
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 By Jacob Barlow-Jones With the 2026 Oscar nominations now confirmed and the nominations record broken by Sinners, it’s time to buckle down and get ready for the big event on March 15. Some will host parties, some will make it a quiet night in, and others will venture out to the bars and restaurants that occupy film’s hallowed grounds to see which films take home the gold and which go home empty-handed. It’s easy enough to guess which films are likely to win that coveted statue if one follows the races closely enough, but what about what deserves to win? How can one make an informed decision on their favorite nominees if seeing them in the first place is half the battle? That’s the question that we at The Friendly Film Fan are here to help answer. We’ll take you through film by film (in alphabetical order) on a guided journey towards nominee completion, so that you can best your friends and neighbors, impressing everyone with your ballot knowledge. Let’s get started. The Alabama Solution Nominated For: Best Documentary Feature Where to Watch: Streaming on HBO Max All the Empty Rooms Nominated For: Best Documentary Short Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix, In Select Theaters March 13-15 Arco Nominated For: Best Animated Feature Where to Watch: In Select Theaters Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud Nominated For: Best Documentary Short Where to Watch: Streaming on HBO Max Avatar: Fire and Ash Nominated For: Best Costume Design, Best Visual Effects Where to Watch: In Theaters Nationwide Blue Moon Nominated For: Best Actor (Ethan Hawke), Best Original Screenplay Where to Watch: Available on Blu-Ray and Digital Bugonia Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Actress (Emma Stone), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on Peacock Butcher’s Stain Nominated For: Best Live-Action Short Where to Watch: In Theaters March 13-15 Butterfly Nominated For: Best Animated Short Where to Watch: Streaming on YouTube and In Theaters March 13-15 Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” Nominated For: Best Documentary Short Where to Watch: In Select Theaters March 13-15 Come See Me in the Good Light Nominated For: Best Documentary Feature Where to Watch: Streaming on Apple TV+ Cutting Through Rocks Nominated For: Best Documentary Feature Where to Watch: In Select Theaters, On DocPlay March 2 The Devil Is Busy Nominated For: Best Documentary Short Where to Watch: Streaming on HBO Max, In Select Theaters March 13-15 Diane Warren: Relentless Nominated For: Best Original Song – “Dear Me” Where to Watch: Available on DVD and Digital Elio Nominated For: Best Animated Feature Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on Disney+ F1 Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Film Editing, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on Apple TV+ Forevergreen Nominated For: Best Animated Short Where to Watch: Streaming on Youtube, In Theaters March 13-15 Frankenstein Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Jacob Elordi), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Sound Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix, In Theaters March 9-15 A Friend of Dorothy Nominated For: Best Live-Action Short Where to Watch: In Theaters March 13-15, Available on Disney+ Europe via VPN The Girl Who Cried Pearls Nominated For: Best Animated Short Where to Watch: In Theaters March 13-15, Available on NFB.ca via VPN Hamnet Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Director (Chloé Zhao), Best Actress (Jessie Buckley), Best Casting, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, on 4K and Blu-Ray March 3, In Theaters March 9-15 If I Had Legs I’d Kick You Nominated For: Best Actress (Rose Byrne) Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital It Was Just an Accident Nominated For: Best International Feature (France), Best Original Screenplay Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital Jane Austen’s Period Drama Nominated For: Best Live-Action Short Where to Watch: Streaming on YouTube, In Theaters March 13-15 Jurassic World Rebirth Nominated For: Best Visual Effects Where to Watch: On 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on Peacock KPop Demon Hunters Nominated For: Best Animated Feature, Best Original Song – “Golden” Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix Kokuho Nominated For: Best Makeup & Hairstyling Where to Watch: In Theaters Nationwide Little Amélie or the Character of Rain Nominated For: Best Animated Feature Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, On Blu-Ray March 10 The Lost Bus Nominated For: Best Visual Effects Where to Watch: Streaming on Apple TV+ Marty Supreme Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Director (Josh Safdie), Best Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Best Casting, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, on 4K and Blu-Ray March 31 Mr. Nobody Against Putin Nominated For: Best Documentary Feature Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, on DVD April 7 One Battle After Another Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson), Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Best Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor) Best Supporting Actor x2 (Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn), Best Casting, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Original Score, Best Sound Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on HBO Max The Perfect Neighbor Nominated For: Best Documentary Feature Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix Perfectly a Strangeness Nominated For: Best Documentary Short Where to Watch: In Select Theaters March 13-15 Retirement Plan Nominated For: Best Animated Short Where to Watch: Streaming on YouTube The Secret Agent Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Actor (Wagner Moura), Best Casting, Best International Feature (Brazil) Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, In Theaters March 9-15 Sentimental Value Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Director (Joachim Trier), Best Actress (Renate Reinsve), Best Supporting Actress x2 (Elle Fanning, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Best Supporting Actor (Stellan Skarsgård), Best International Feature (Norway), Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital, In Theaters March 9-15, and on 4K and Blu-Ray May 26 The Singers Nominated For: Best Live-Action Short Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix, In Theaters March 13-15 Sinners Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Director (Ryan Coogler), Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Best Supporting Actress (Wunmi Mosaku), Best Supporting Actor (Delroy Lindo), Best Casting, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Original Song – “I Lied to You,” Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on HBO Max Sirāt Nominated For: Best International Feature (Spain), Best Sound Where to Watch: In Select Theaters The Smashing Machine Nominated For: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on HBO Max Song Sung Blue Nominated For: Best Actress (Kate Hudson) Where to Watch: Available on Blu-Ray and Digital, and Streaming on Peacock The Three Sisters Nominated For: Best Animated Short Where to Watch: In Theaters March 13-15 Train Dreams Nominated For: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Original Song – “Train Dreams” Where to Watch: Streaming on Netflix, In Theaters March 9-15 Two People Exchanging Saliva Nominated For: Best Live-Action Short Where to Watch: Streaming on YouTube, In Theaters March 13-15 The Ugly Stepsister Nominated For: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Where to Watch: Available on Digital and Streaming on Shudder Viva Verdi! Nominated For: Best Original Song – “Sweet Dreams of Joy” Where to Watch: Available on Jolt The Voice of Hind Rajab Nominated For: Best International Feature (Tunisia) Where to Watch: Available Now on Digital Weapons Nominated For: Best Supporting Actress (Amy Madigan) Where to Watch: Available on 4K, Blu-Ray, and Digital, and Streaming on HBO Max Zootopia 2 Nominated For: Best Animated Feature Where to Watch: In Theaters Now And that is everything that’s nominated for an Oscar this year! Hopefully you found this guide helpful for organizing your watch time. If you’d rather knock out a few films at a time without switching apps or having to search around, here’s a similar handy little guide for you to reference. Netflix: All the Empty Rooms, Frankenstein, KPop Demon Hunters, The Perfect Neighbor, The Singers, Train Dreams HBO Max: The Alabama Solution, Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud, The Devil Is Busy, One Battle After Another, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons Disney+: Elio Apple TV+: Come See Me in the Good Light, F1, The Lost Bus Peacock: Bugonia, Jurassic World Rebirth, Song Sung Blue Shudder: The Ugly Stepsister YouTube: Butterfly, Forevergreen, Jane Austen's Period Drama, Retirement Plan, The Three Sisters, Two People Exchanging Saliva Jolt: Viva Verdi! Digital: Blue Moon, Diane Warren: Relentless, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, The Voice of Hind Rajab How many of these films have you seen? Anything you’re excited to check out or discover? Let us know in the comments section below, and if you find yourself struggling to get through them all, don’t sweat it; we’ll be updating this list as things become more widely available. All of the Best Picture nominees, as well as the nominated Live-Action and Animated short films will also be shown in theaters from March 9-15 for Oscar Week, so be sure to check and see if your local theater is participating! Thanks for reading! - The Friendly Film Fan This piece was last updated on 2/28/26. It was originally posted on 1/24/26.
 By Jacob Barlow-Jones Well, that was pretty crazy! After months of speculation and handwringing about which bubble contenders could knock out some of the on-the-wings selections of our Oscar nomination predictions, the full list of Oscar nominees for 2026 was unveiled this morning and it was a doozy! As usual, there were a lot of expected titles announced, as well as enough major snubs and surprises that I’m surprised I didn’t get whiplash just watching the announcement. The biggest winner of the morning was Ryan Coogler’s Black history vampire musical Sinners, which racked up a total of 16 nominations to not just break the all-time nominations record of 14 (which was a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land), but bury it with an additional 2 nominations to its name. In fact, as a studio, Warner Bros. brought in no less than 30 nominations across its recognized projects, including 13 for One Battle After Another, its other major awards contender this year (and still, to me, the Best Picture frontrunner despite that Chase Infiniti snub). One can imagine Netflix may be looking more closely at potentially expanding their theatrical windows for WB films, even after having just announced they would be committing to a minimum 45-day theatrical run for those projects. (I’ll believe it when I see it.) Among other surprises such as Elle Fanning, Delroy Lindo, and Kate Hudson all being nominated despite not having very strong pre-season runs – as well as F1 taking its Picture spot from Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident – is that Wicked: For Good wasn’t just shut out of Best Supporting Actress for Ariana Grande (its best shot for a major nomination); it was shut out of nominations entirely. No Costume Design, No Production Design, No Makeup and Hairstyling, nothing. Given that the last Wicked film landed 10 nominations last year, and won 2 Oscars, that’s a steep fall from grace, and a sign that perhaps the industry feels even more adversarial towards the sequel than even the sea of volatility that is film twitter does. Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice was likewise shut out of nominations, failing to garner a spot in the International Feature category and crushing the hopes of those who dreamed of Neon running the table in that space (they still have 4 nominees; it’s okay). I had wondered whether the Decision to Leave snub of 2023 would worm its way into this year’s Park Chan-wook work as well; I was, sadly, correct to assume it would. Other well-liked nominees included Sentimental Value, which made a strong showing with its four main performers garnering nods (making it all the more bizarre that the film missed Best Casting), Frankenstein, which performed exceptionally well in the tech categories despite missing out on Best Director for Guillermo Del Toro, Marty Supreme, which tied those previous two films with a nomination total of 9, and Hamnet, which landed 8 nominations, losing out on categories like Best Film Editing and Best Supporting Actor for Paul Mescal. Overall, it’s a well-deserving lineup, and despite the fact that some of my nomination hopes inevitably got dashed (r.i.p. Sorry, Baby, your screenplay should have been recognized), the surprises that made up for them were ones I didn’t expect would bring me such joy. The 98th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 15, at 7:00 p.m. EST, and will be broadcast for the last time on ABC. A full list of the nominated films is below. BEST PICTURE The Nominees:
BEST DIRECTOR The Nominees:
BEST ACTRESS The Nominees:
BEST ACTOR The Nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The Nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR The Nominees:
BEST CASTING The Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Nominees:
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM The Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE The Nominees:
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY The Nominees:
BEST FILM EDITING The Nominees:
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Nominees:
BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Nominees:
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG The Nominees:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Nominees:
BEST SOUND The Nominees:
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT The Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT The Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT The Nominees:
What do you think of these nominations? Were there any snubs or inclusions that shocked you? What do you think of Sinners now holding the nomination crown? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan  By Jacob Barlow-Jones Greetings all, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! I’m sure you all have many questions: where have we been? What have we been up to? Is a hot dog a sandwich (it’s not)? And finally, how are we coming back after all this time, not having written a proper review for anything since James Gunn’s Superman? What happened? You’ll find your answer below this text, courtesy of former French 75 revolutionary Bob Ferguson.  Needless to say, it’s been a somewhat rocky time for us over the past five months or so, but we are back, and it looks like just in the nick of time, because we are here to unveil our first and final Oscar nomination predictions piece of the season! There’s so much up in the air with the film industry right now, and predicting whether Netflix will actually preserve the sanctity of theatrical exhibition for their new Warner Bros. properties in a few years’ time, or whether they will simply say that while they figure out how to get more eyes on their streaming service so they don’t have to commit to it, is anyone’s guess and almost impossible to predict this far out from a finalization of the acquisition. But you know what won’t be impossible to predict this year? Your Oscar ballot. Even if we weren’t public-facing about it, we've been studying the playing field all year long. Some things rose above as the year went on, some have all but dropped their races entirely. Whatever the case, if you’re looking to impress your friends and colleagues or just like that feeling you get when you’re right about something, we’ve got you covered. We’ll go through each individual category (including one new one) as we present our picks for what we think will land a spot, as well as three “wildcard” entries that could also move into poll position under the right circumstances. Here are The Friendly Film Fan’s official Oscar nomination predictions for 2026! BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
Nine of these ten seem fairly certain. A Palme d’Or winner, a Cannes darling, a Netflix “indie,” a literally Shakespearean drama, the weird one, the classical monster movie, the one carried (though not entirely) by a showstopper performance, the frontrunner of the season, and the contemporary musical (which doubles as a monster movie) seems like a fairly well-formed lineup for the Best Picture category, and only one thing remains: to find that tenth spot. This is where my previous advice from the Costume Design category comes in full force: never underestimate the Brazilians. Despite both F1 and Weapons putting up solid showings with PGA, and at least the former having a solid shot to make it in this ten, I’ve selected The Secret Agent as my number ten prediction. BEST DIRECTOR Predicted Nominees:
Best Director is one of the other major categories where an out-of-nowhere international contender can show up just as easily as any of the expected five, but even with Joachim Trier not showing up in the DGA five, with Sentimental Value appearing amongst the PGA ten, I have a somewhat hopeful feeling that he does indeed make the lineup this year. Who the international contender turns out to be is anybody’s guess, and there remains a distinct possibility that there is no international feature director who appears amongst these five nominees with Guillermo Del Toro taking that DGA spot, but for now, I believe that even subtler direction can still be recognized, especially with performances this good across the board. BEST ACTRESS Predicted Nominees:
How great is it that Chase Infiniti is going to garner herself an Oscar nomination for her feature film debut? She deserves every bit of awards love she gets, but as has been the case all season, this is a Buckley v. Byrne race, with Buckley firmly in the lead following a career of terrific work leading up to her turn as Agnes in Hamnet. What worries me here, though, is the presence of Kate Hudson in the SAG lineup, and what that might mean if Renate Reinsve is indeed snubbed for a nomination spot in her favor. Reinsve turned in some of the most impressive work of her career this year, and although it’s a quieter performance than her turn in The Worst Person in the World, it’s all the more powerful for it. And if the Academy feels any love at all for The Testament of Ann Lee, it should show up for the film’s well-deserving lead, Amanda Seyfried. BEST ACTOR Predicted Nominees
Wagner Moura needed to win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama to stay in this race at all, and win it he did, cementing his place amongst at least the seven possible Best Actor contenders, even if he may be on the bubble and in definite danger of missing the nod. Still, Fernanda Torres didn’t have a SAG nod to her name and managed to wiggle into the Lead Actress lineup last year without a worry, so there’s a non-zero chance Moura takes the same path, especially with the level of international support he’s received. What I’m hoping is that Joel Edgerton’s quiet turn in Train Dreams somehow manages to make it into the lineup, even if it is at the expense of one of Ethan Hawke’s best performances in years. It’s unlikely that happens, but hey, what if? BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Predicted Nominees:
The SAG nod for Ariana Grande – a recognition they did not give to her castmate Cynthia Erivo this time around – is the only indicator outside of the below-the-line categories that Wicked: For Good has anything to hold onto. That said, with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas sure to find justice for her SAG snub with a nomination here, the battle for last place appears to be between Grande and Odessa A’zion, whose career is enjoying a sharp rise at the moment. Currently, I am giving the edge to Grande, who manages to hold onto at least some of what she brought to the table in the first Wicked film, albeit a pale imitation, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see A’zion swoop in to leave Wicked: For Good relegated only to the tech fields. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Predicted Nominees:
Perhaps the single easiest of the acting races to predict in terms of who makes the lineup, Best Supporting Actor remained an open and shut case for months…until SAG elected to nominate Miles Caton over Stellan Skarsgård in their rush to exclude any international nominees from their newly-named Actor Awards. Nonetheless, with a Golden Globe win already under his belt, and what appears to be a vote-splitting opportunity with the One Battle boys duking it out, Skarsgård appears to be unaffected by the SAG snub and poised to take the lead in this category once more (the Jacob Elordi win at Critics Choice notwithstanding). Truthfully, the bottom two wildcard selections here are more for padding than anything as Miles Caton is the clear number six for this category, but stranger nominations have come out of absolutely nowhere. BEST CASTING Predicted Nominees:
The newest category to be added to the Oscars lineup takes the nomination count from the 23 categories it had been shrunk down to when the sound categories collapsed back to a full 24 (and soon to be 25 with the introduction of the Best Stunts category, which will debut with the 100th anniversary of the awards). Given that this is the first year of its inclusion, there’s not a lot of precedent to rely on for predicting what the nominee field is likely to look like. The closest one can come at the moment is to focus largely on performance ensembles – especially those with deep benches (a look at the SAG Ensemble nominees is helpful here) – and try to game it out from there. My one hope for this category is that the international community comes through for Sentimental Value in the way that SAG refused to; barring that, we’re probably looking at a five for five SAG to Oscars transfer. (I like Frankenstein, but do we really need it here too?) BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Predicted Nominees:
In recent years, animation has sadly become somewhat of a weaker category, with easier to predict wins and easier to predict nominations than ever. That trend continues this year as KPop Demon Hunters looks to dominate both this and the Original Song categories, but what films surround it are also largely unsurprising. Disney’s now highest grossing animated film of all time, Zootopia 2, would be the reasonable second place finisher, with the studio’s Pixar entrant rounding out the lineup in fifth place behind two far more interesting nominees in Arco and Little Amélie. Netflix’s other animated film this year, In Your Dreams, as well as A Magnificent Life, and Sony’s Scarlet, occupy the wildcard slots because, well, something has to, and The Bad Guys 2 – while certainly worthy of some kind of recognition – just doesn’t have the juice to push through the pack. BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Predicted Nominees:
Even more than Best Picture, the most anticipated question of nominations morning seems to be whether Neon will be able to go five for five across the entirety of the International Feature category, a feat no studio (at least none that I’m aware of) has managed to achieve since the category’s introduction. If this were any other Academy, I might be inclined to say this would absolutely not happen, as this category always contains a wildcard that even I don’t see coming much of the time. However, given how calculated Neon has become at awards campaigning, it’s not safe to bet against them…which is exactly what I’m going to do. This may be the only opportunity for The Voice of Hind Rajab – a docu-drama about a Palestinian child calling out for rescue under Israeli fire – to reach the international audience it needs to succeed, and since the Academy has snubbed Park Chan-wook before and we’re due for at least one major blunder in the nominations, I think No Other Choice is the sacrificial lamb here. Perhaps Netflix is the one to oust the South Korean contender with the Taiwanese Left-Handed Girl, but either way, it could well be the case that a full decade passes before we see a Park Chan-wook film among this category’s lineup again. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Predicted Nominees:
Keeping up with the documentary feature contenders throughout the year has been something I’ve prided myself on, but even during my most prolific years of documentary viewing, there’s either been plenty of entrants to the shortlist that I haven’t seen or plenty of docs I have seen that then didn’t make the cut. Luckily, many of these – like their short form counterparts – are also accessible through various streaming services or YouTube, so they’re relatively easy to see. Also, like so many categories this year, there are about four nominees that feel like concrete certainties, and one that could go basically anywhere else. I’ve selected The Alabama Solution as the fifth film, given that Netflix already has The Perfect Neighbor in the mix (so Apocalypse in the Tropics feels redundant if the Academy is trying to spread the love) and Apple has yet to land one of their documentary acquisitions in this category going as far back as 2020. Come See Me in the Good Light is easily their strongest candidate yet, and it has widespread support, so there’s a genuine shot for it to get in, but that Apple stat is hard to ignore with an HBO doc waiting in the wings. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Predicted Nominees:
Hamnet missing the ASC nod this year dealt a crushing blow to Lukas Zal, whom many considered to be firmly in the mix after having been snubbed for his transcendent work on The Zone of Interest, a film which continues to grow more and more relevant as time continues to move forward. It’s not impossible that the Academy elects to nominate him anyway, given Hamnet’s otherwise strong showing, but it seems more likely that the Academy actually goes five for five with the ASC nominees this year, breaking recent precedent of a four for five success rate. As for the win, we’ll have to see how the rest of the season goes, but in my eyes, it’s still Sinners vs. Train Dreams. BEST FILM EDITING Predicted Nominees:
Sometimes the film with the most editing wins this category (Ford v Ferrari), sometimes it does actually go to the best edited film of the year (Everything Everywhere All at Once); in both cases, there’s strong support for both F1 and One Battle After Another, and without the ACE Eddie nominations in hand (those will be revealed next Tuesday), what surprises may be in store are anybody’s guess. For the moment, this is what I think it looks like heading into tomorrow’s announcement. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Predicted Nominees:
It will forever remain strange to me just how weak Avatar: Fire and Ash appears this year when compared to the certainty with which The Way of Water entered the race in 2023. Granted, it had been twelve years since the first Avatar, so a sequel that looked as good as Way of Water did with all its new technology and design work was always going to make a strong showing in the tech categories, but Fire and Ash being on the bubble even without that length of a wait still feels wrong. Nevertheless, on the bubble it is, and anyone who’s still predicting a showing for Fantastic Four: First Steps here – even in the wildcards – should keep in mind that much of the industry seems more passionate about Bugonia than previously thought. BEST COSTUME DESIGN Predicted Nominees:
Costume Design is another slightly tricky category this year, as there are about seven viable candidates, two of which possess a sincere chance at knocking Hamnet out of its spot. Given how the industry appears to adore the film, I’m reticent to remove it from the lineup, but if it were to fall, I believe it would be to Lindsay Pugh’s work in Hedda, which features a more formal style in its costuming. I know this is where many are placing their Testament of Ann Lee or Kiss of the Spider-Woman hopes, but given how both of these were entirely ignored through every shortlist, it's a safe bet to say the Academy likely isn’t giving them any more thought, justifiably or not. What they may be giving thought to, however, is The Secret Agent, as an increasingly international Academy just witnessed it win two Golden Globes, including one for Best Actor (Wagner Moura). There’s only one rule with this new Academy in major categories: never underestimate the Brazilian contingent. BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Predicted Nominees:
Once more, thank god for shortlists; if it weren’t for the Academy’s willingness to share what was in contention for some of these below-the-line categories, I’d have forgotten The Alto Knights and The Ugly Stepsister even released this past year (not that either of them has a shot here, but it’s good to see the latter recognized). That said, there’s also plenty of room for a wildcard move in this category as well. The Academy loves prosthetic work, and while The Smashing Machine features plenty of the more subtle makeup they love to recognize, it doesn’t feature a fat suit; Nuremberg does, and if any of the old Academy still has any power, the Churchill rule should apply here as well. Of course, there’s always a possibility that Kokuho – the Tom Cruise-backed international contender this year from Japan – springs a surprise on us as well. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Predicted Nominees:
Original score is a tricky one; last year, Challengers was snubbed in favor of Wicked: For Good, which I suppose featured a decent bit of original scoring for the film, but most of it sounded like renditions of the Broadway show score anyway, and personally I’d like to not repeat that mistake, so I am hoping with everything in me that Daniel Lopatin’s score for Marty Supreme doesn’t hit a Challengers snag this year. That said, there’s plenty of room for some wildcard madness this time around, so don’t be shocked if Wicked: For Good features as am undeserved repeat. BEST ORIGINAL SONG Predicted Nominees:
And now we come to the category no one actually cares about, but which everyone gets at least one thing right with: a Diane Warren or Diane Warren-adjacent song will keep showing up here until she gets her damn Oscar, locking out more deserving candidates. Of course, it’s possible that “Dear Me” falls at the feet of either Sinners or Wicked: For Good, both of which feature at least one original song already firmly in the mix, but I doubt any of these wildcards have the strength in campaigning to take down the single entrant that almost never misses. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Predicted Nominees:
You’ll notice in many of these races that between three and four spots are more-or-less locked up by a few heavyweight candidates, while spots four and five are up for grabs between two or three films with some true wildcards waiting in the wings. Such is also the case with Adapted Screenplay, which is a two-way battle for spot five between Will Tracy’s script for Bugonia (currently in the lead with some WGA support) and Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice, which to me should be a layup candidate. For the moment, I’ve chosen Bugonia as the safe bet, but don’t be surprised to see No Other Choice show up here if the Academy isn’t going to blank it like they did Decision to Leave a few years ago. BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY Predicted Nominees:
The original screenplay category seems fairly likely to throw a huge curveball our way as Zach Cregger’s Weapons made its way onto a couple of key shortlists. That said, I’m not sure I see it making a large dent here, even if Amy Madigan is all but guaranteed to secure herself a nomination. Still, of the wildcard picks, I think it would be the likeliest to knock Sorry, Baby out of contention, even if I’m not-so-secretly praying that won’t happen. Julia Roberts seems to think highly of Eva Victor’s film. Why shouldn’t the Academy? BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Predicted Nominees:
Every time a new Avatar film releases, this race is over before it begins, but it is still fun to predict what will by riding alongside it, and my big swing this time around comes in the form of Paul Greengrass’ Paradise fire drama, The Lost Bus, which features some thoroughly convincing effects that I believe everyone is underestimating. Of course, there’s always the chance that Frankenstein takes either that spot or the Wicked: For Good one (boy, that movie sank in the rankings quick, huh), but for now, this is where I’m at. BEST SOUND Predicted Nominees:
And now we come to the part of the predictions where people actually start paying attention. Best Sound isn’t especially tricky until one gets into that fifth slot, for which I would personally nominate Avatar: Fire and Ash, but which most sound guilds gave to Mission: Impossible (even the Cinema Audio Society didn’t recognize Avatar). There’s certainly a likelihood that the Tom Cruise action film – which could be the last of its kind – holds onto that sound nod all the way through tomorrow morning, but given the widespread support for Oliver Laxe’s desert rave drama Sirât across a multitude of shortlists and its likelihood of showing up in at least one other major category in this piece, I’ve elected to call the nomination race in its favor. BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT Predicted Nominees:
Even amongst the short form categories, this is the most difficult one to predict. Only two of these films are widely available, so those are the only two I’ve seen. Extremist is the first, which I don’t believe has the juice to push past the eight other contenders listed, but Two People Exchanging Saliva – the second one I’ve seen – would be an inspired choice to bump up from wildcard into the main nominee package. BEST ANIMATED SHORT Predicted Nominees:
Butterfly seems like the easy frontrunner in this category, given how stunningly Butterfly seems like the easy frontrunner in this category, given how stunningly painted it is while also featuring a poignant storyline, but for my money, I’d like to see the adorable Snow Bear or the existentially dreadful Playing God jump up from the wildcard slots into the main pack. Is that just because they’re some of the only ones I’ve been able to see? The answer isn’t “no,” but they are also quality films. BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT Predicted Nominees:
By far the most difficult categories to predict each year are the Shorts; they’re not usually widely accessible during the year, and we know so little about how they’re made and distributed that keeping up with what rises through the ranks is more or less impossible; thank god for the Shortlists the Academy drops each year to help us nail down which ones we should focus on, and which ones we no longer need to track. This yearThis year, most of the documentary short films from the shortlist were actually fairly easy to see; some are still streaming exclusives, like the Netflix frontrunner All the Empty Rooms, but many others – such as The Devil is Busy and Last Days on Lake Trinity – are widely accessible on YouTube just by searching the title. Inevitably, at least one of the shortlisted films that are not widely accessible makes the cut, so this year I’ve put Bad Hostage in that slot (although I did see it last year as part of the IDA awards). What do you think of our predictions? Is there anything we’re underestimating? Overestimating? Which films would you like to see get some love tomorrow morning? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading! - The Friendly Film Fan  by Jacob Jones The 97th Annual Academy Awards took place Sunday night, once again held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, and hosted by Conan O’Brien. The legendary television host made a real game of the night, taking cracks at everyone from Drake to the President Trump to Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón herself (who was in attendance). Some bits worked, very few didn’t, and even when the night ran a little long, he always seemed to be having a good time. The big news of the night was that Sean Baker – writer, director, editor, and producer of the film Anora – took home four Oscars, including one for Best Picture of the Year; this makes Baker only the second person to take home four Oscars in the same night after Walt Disney, and the first to win them all for the same movie. Mikey Madison also triumphed over expected winner Demi Moore in Best Actress, bringing Anora’s grand total to five wins, losing only one for which it was nominated (Best Supporting Actor for Yura Borisov) to A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin.  Among other winners were the documentary feature film No Other Land (which as of this writing still lacks U.S. distribution) for which both the Palestinian and Israeli filmmakers gave impassioned speeches advocating against the ethnic cleansing of Palestine itself, Janus Film’ Latvian animation Flow, which took home Best Animated Feature, and Walter Salles’ Brazilian submission to the Oscars, I’m Still Here, which took home the award for Best International Feature, leaving Emilia Pérez – the most nominated film of the night – with only two wins for Best Original Song (“El Mal”) and Best Supporting Actress, which went to Zoe Saldaña to cap off a clean awards season sweep. The Brutalist also took home three wins for Best Cinematography, Best Original Score, and Best Actor, which went to Adrien Brody, marking his second win in the category and denying Timothée Chalamet the opportunity to break Brody’s record of being the youngest person to ever win the Best Actor Oscar. Wicked and Dune: Part Two also won two Oscars each in the expected categories, with each Dune team giving special shout-outs to Director Denis Villeneuve, whom the Academy failed to recognize for his titanic achievement in adapted Frank Herbert’s iconic sci-fi novel. Of course, The Substance took home the award for Best Makeup & Hairstyling in a landslide victory, and Conclave concluded its winning run in Best Adapted Screenplay.  Overall, it was a solid list of winners over the course of a rather average Oscars night, all things considered. Personally, I only missed five predictions (three of which were in the Shorts categories, a widely agreed-upon mess of winners), with my largest unpaid risk being predicting Conclave for Best Film Editing over Anora. Still, some of the larger risks I took – like Flow in Animated Feature – did pay off, so I can hardly complain. In any case, here’s hoping for a slightly less exhausting awards press cycle next year, and a long year of great movies ahead. (Speaking of a long year, I’ve got some catching up to do…) A full list of the winners is below.  What did you think of the Oscars last night? Did you do well on your ballot? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading! - The Friendly Film Fan Full Winners List
Best Picture: Anora Best Director: Sean Baker, Anora Best Actress in a Leading Role: Mikey Madison, Anora Best Actor in a Leading Role: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain Best Animated Feature: Flow (Latvia) Best International Feature: I’m Still Here (Brazil) Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land Best Cinematography: Lol Crawley, The Brutalist Best Film Editing: Sean Baker, Anora Best Production Design: Nathan Crowley, Wicked Best Costume Design: Paul Tazewell, Wicked Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Substance Best Original Score: Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist Best Original Song: “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez Best Adapted Screenplay: Peter Straughn, Conclave Best Original Screenplay: Sean Baker, Anora Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two Best Sound: Dune: Part Two Best Live-Action Short: I’m Not a Robot Best Animated Short: In the Shadow of the Cypress Best Documentary Short: The Only Girl in the Orchestra  The Friendly Film Fan Selects What Will and What Should Win at 97th Annual Ceremony. by Jacob Jones Greetings all, and welcome back to The Friendly Film Fan! We are one mere day away from the 97th Annual Academy Awards and the end of a very long and chaotic awards season. Front-runners have come and gone, momentum has shifted dramatically from where it once was, and entire years have passed in the broader socio-political atmosphere between January 1 and well, today. With all that said, there is one final task ahead of us, and that’s to make our guesses for what will take home the gold tomorrow night. We’ll go category-by-category, the same as we did with our nomination predictions, and offer up our Will Wins and our Should Wins, as well as the Could Steals that might take things home in a toss-up, Dark Horses not nearly enough people are paying attention to, and at least one or more films that should have been nominated per category (excluding the shorts due to their relative obscurity during the course of the year). BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT The Nominees:
Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden Could Steal: Incident Dark Horse: The Only Girl in the Orchestra Should Have Been Nominated: N/A While I unfortunately didn’t get an opportunity to see Death by Numbers, initial research indicates that it may not have had a very strong chance of winning this category anyway, despite its deeply complicated subject matter (then again, with my luck, it could end up winning anyway). All signs point to I Am Ready, Warden as the eventual victor in this category, but while I certainly hold the opinion that the imperfect and deeply complex short doc would not be an unworthy winner on the whole, our hearts remain with Instruments of a Beating Heart, which follows a young girl as she overcomes obstacles both mental and emotional, learning alongside maybe the most supportive group of children I’ve ever encountered to take joy in the small triumphs. It may be the simplest of the nominees by a long shot in terms of its subject matter, but that doesn’t mean it’s not also the most effective at telling its story. BEST ANIMATED SHORT The Nominees:
Will Win: Wander to Wonder Could Steal: In the Shadow of the Cypress Dark Horse: Beautiful Men Should Have Been Nominated: N/A All momentum here points to Wander to Wonder winning this category, but given the metaphors present in In the Shadow of the Cypress, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it take home the gold either. In a not particularly strong category this year, either would be a worthy winner. BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT The Nominees:
Will Win: A Lien Could Steal: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent Dark Horse: The Last Ranger Should Have Been Nominated: N/A I was admittedly unable to see both The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent and The Last Ranger due to schedule constraints and lack of general availability outside of theaters, and the live-action shorts are always the hardest to find when the Oscars shortlists are first released in December, so I’ll abstain from a “Should Win/Should Have Been Nominated” in this category. That said, I do have a particular favorite of the three I did see, and that’s A Lien, which came along at just the right time in Oscar voting post-inauguration for us to be confident that it can win the category given its subject and the scathing block of text which appears at its end. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if either The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent or The Last Ranger took the award home, or even if Mindy Kaling and Netflix had enough campaign power with Anuja that none of my current choices actually grabbed the gold. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see. BEST SOUND The Nominees:
Will Win: Dune: Part Two Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: The Wild Robot Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: Civil War or Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Despite the presence of no less than three musically-driven movies, this award remains poised to go to Dune: Part Two without a flight of doubt. I did put The Wild Robot in the Dark Horse spot in the unlikely event things go incredibly sideways, but there’s basically no chance of that happening, so if need be, its chances in this category can be entirely disregarded (but its presence here is important for its chances of winning Best Animated Feature). BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Nominees:
Will Win: Dune: Part Two Could Steal: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Dark Horse: Wicked Should Have Been Nominated: Civil War The five selections for VFX this year were almost a done deal before the nominations even happened, so there’s little room for a surprise winner either, given Dune: Part Two’s gargantuan success in both this category and Best Sound up to now with various other guild awards and critics groups. If one film were to take the award away, it should be Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, especially given the more recent Apes films all lost the award to larger movies released in the same years they were released, but I’d advise caution on underestimating the Academy’s love for Wicked here, so if there is to be an egregious upset, don’t be surprised to see that film at the mic. BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora Could Steal: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain Dark Horse: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance Should Have Been Nominated: Justin Kuritzkes, Challengers The original screenplay category this year is also more-or-less what was expected, though for some time there was a question of whether Challengers or September 5 would take that fifth slot, or indeed if the Academy would have the stones to nominate a hard-genre body horror extravaganza like The Substance, a subgenre they typically avoid at all costs. The unfortunate consequence of September 5’s presence here is Challengers’ absence, one of too many for this year’s Oscars. The toss-up is between Sean Baker’s Anora and Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain, both written and directed by each of them respectively, and even at this late stage of the race, it’s unknown just how strong each of them is. Anora has the Best Picture momentum behind it, as well as numerous other accolades including a WGA win in this category, but A Real Pain did just take home the Indie Spirit Award and the BAFTA win, so there’s a chance it takes the category after all. Watch out for The Substance, though, especially with the Best Actress momentum it has, and the fact that it got nominated in Picture and Director; body horror may not be the Academy’s thing, but women’s issues and bodily autonomy are, and a win in Best Screenplay at the Cannes film festival doesn’t mean nothing with an increasingly international voting body. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
Will Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys Should Have Been Nominated: Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two This category seems tightly shut, as nothing has yet been able to oust Conclave from a victory in Adapted Screenplay at any awards ceremony for which it was deemed eligible. Its only real challenger would be Nickel Boys, which took home the WGA prize, but even that would be a longshot, as Conclave was not eligible for a WGA nomination due to the organization’s submission rules. I’d be happy to see it go to Sing Sing as well, but given how that film was more or less forgotten by the Academy and its distribution studio’s own marketing department, it’s an even longer shot than Nickel Boys. Still, as long as Emilia Pérez loses here, I’m fine with just about any other winner (though A Complete Unknown – while surprising – would be kind of a boring upset choice). BEST ORIGINAL SONG The Nominees:
Will Win: “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez Could Steal: “Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: “Claw Machine,” I Saw the TV Glow This is “El Mal’s” award to lose unfortunately, so it would be foolish to predict an upset from anything in this category except perhaps “Mi Camino,” but even then, it’s highly unlikely that the single scene safeguarding Zoe Saldaña’s eventual Oscar win from slipping away leaves the Dolby empty-handed. This is just one of two awards Emilia Pérez is practically guaranteed this year, and given all the blowback the film has begotten recently, it may be one of only two the Academy will ever be willing to acknowledge. That said, in a weaker field than usual this year for the Oscars’ weakest non-shorts category, “The Journey” provides an opportunity for the Academy to finally reward category mainstay Diane Warren, once and for all ending the need to keep nominating songs from movies far below the Academy’s standard of quality and guaranteeing them Oscars attention. Of course, it helps that it’s one of only two songs in the category I can even remember the main themes to, but really, it would just be a relief not to have to withhold a spot from a more deserving song next year just so Warren can lose a seventeenth time. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Nominees:
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist Could Steal: Volker Bertelmann, Conclave Dark Horse: John Powell & Stephen Schwartz, Wicked Should Have Been Nominated: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, Challengers I could rant and rave for hours about Dune: Part Two’s score being rendered ineligible for even a nomination in this category despite Wicked landing a nod, but with Challengers also being egregiously snubbed out of the game despite Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross’ immaculate work, I’ll chalk those two terrible choices up to a desperately needed overhaul of the entire Academy music branch. It seems like a forgone conclusion, in Challengers’ absence, that this award will go to Daniel Blumberg for his incredible symphonic work on The Brutalist (a score by which we now train our cats to wait for breakfast), a well deserved win for easily the best score in this category. There’s an outside chance that Volker Bertelmann could win his second Oscar for Conclave, but realistically speaking, who wouldn’t want to hear those Brutalist overture horns when Blumberg’s name is called? BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Nominees:
Will Win: The Substance Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Emilia Pérez Should Have Been Nominated: Dune: Part Two The easiest award to predict of the night by a country mile, there’s no chance anything but The Substance wins here. Perhaps Emilia Pérez could pull off one of the worst upsets in Oscars history, but we wouldn’t bet on it. The real crime here is how the Academy seemed to forget that just because Austin Butler doesn’t have hair in Dune: Part Two doesn’t mean the film’s Makeup & Hairstyling chances are rendered moot. BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Nominees:
Will Win: Paul Tazewell, Wicked Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown Should Have Been Nominated: Jacqueline West, Dune: Part Two Yet another terrible snub for Dune: Part Two, which produced some of the most iconic costume designs in sci-fi history, not the least of which are the Reverend Mothers’ robes and Florence Pugh’s various outfits throughout the film. Perhaps the thinking here is that so much of the primary costuming – namely the stillsuits – was already introduced in Part One that there wasn’t enough new material to garner a nomination, but I digress. In any case, this is Wicked’s award to lose, but would caution readers not to underestimate the Academy’s clear passion for A Complete Unknown, a film with far less elaborate costuming that still captures an iconic era in American music rather well. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Nominees:
Will Win: Nathan Crowley, Wicked Could Steal: Judy Becker, The Brutalist Dark Horse: Craig Lathrop, Nosferatu Should Have Been Nominated: Arthur Max, Gladiator II To be honest, I’m not quite sure why Gladiator II was passed over for Production Design, even if AMPAS doesn’t seem to have a ton of love for it in the first place. Could Conclave’s momentum be such that we all underestimated just how liked it is by most of the Academy? I’d like to see either The Brutalist or Wicked take this award home, as both have some spectacular production design on display, the earlier for period design and the latter for fantasy. Still, Wicked seems to have the edge here, so I’m inclined to predict it, even if an upset by The Brutalist wouldn’t surprise me at all. BEST FILM EDITING The Nominees:
Will Win: Nick Emerson, Conclave Could Steal: Sean Baker, Anora Dark Horse: Dávid Janscó, The Brutalist Should Have Been Nominated: Joe Walker, Dune: Part Two How many times can I see in one predictions piece that Dune: Part Two was egregiously snubbed in almost half the tech categories Part One managed to win for? Joe Walker’s god-tier editing being passed over just so the Academy can over-nominate Emilia Pérez again and again or hand Wicked a nomination it doesn’t deserve should be a criminal offense in all established entertainment law, and I will never forgive the editor’s branch this breach of trust. That said, either Anora or Conclave would be worthy winners, though I would personally prefer the latter, and do believe that it will take home the award, if only due to the larger ones Anora is almost sure to receive later on. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY The Nominees:
Will Win: Lol Crowley, The Brutalist Could Steal: Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu Dark Horse: Edward Lachmann, Maria Should Have Been Nominated: Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Challengers and Jomo Fray, Nickel Boys Once again, what about the cinematography in Emilia Pérez makes it so special that the Academy not only gives it a nomination, but outright ignores Nickel Boys’ novel approach to telling its story, or bypasses the insane creative choices in Challengers altogether? If you’ve watched the film, you already know what the answer is. If you haven’t, here’s the answer: not a damn thing. And despite Greig Fraser’s previous win in this category for Dune Part One, it’s unlikely that this becomes a repeat Oscar with momentum pointing to The Brutalist for a win here. Personally, I’d like to see this go to Nosferatu, which is full of incredible photography, and demonstrates to studios everywhere that you can do nighttime/dark scenes while still being able to see what’s going on; you just have to know how to light your sets. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE The Nominees:
Will Win: No Other Land Could Steal: Porcelain War Dark Horse: Sugarcane Should Have Been Nominated: N/A There are a few documentaries from the shortlists that I have yet to catch up to as of this writing – The Bibi Files, Daughters, Frida, and Porcelain War are the missing pieces, with the last of them being particularly hard to find – but from what I’m able to gather, we may be in for a situation wherein No Other Land, which still lacks U.S. distribution, becomes the winner here, especially due to the amount of abstains Academy members have admitted to giving this category this year, leaving the more passionate documentary viewers with the majority power in the voting. Of course, being too hopeful for a win for that film can be dangerous, especially as Porcelain War did win the DGA for Documentary Filmmaking, and garnered a PGA nomination (although it lost to Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, which did not make the Oscars shortlist). It seems probable that if enough of the Academy simply hasn’t watched No Other Land – or worse, refuses to – Porcelain War could end up taking the victory. It would be neat to see Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat win here, as it’s my personal favorite doc of the year, but I wouldn’t count on it. BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM The Nominees:
Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil) Could Steal: Emilia Pérez (France) Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: N/A As I have not gotten to watch all of the International films on the shortlist either, I’m abstaining from picking a “Should Have Been Nominated” in this category, and throwing my weight behind both Flow, which hails from Latvia, and the incredible I'm Still Here, which has the most passionate fanbase for an international film I have seen since Parasite, managing to push it all the way into Best Picture out of seemingly nowhere (pro tip: never underestimate Brazilians). Either would be a worthy winner, but it seems like the latter has all the momentum behind it right now, especially with a Best Actress nomination for Fernanda Torres to show for it. If it can manage a win over Emilia Pérez, I won’t necessarily be shocked, but I will be delighted. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Nominees:
Will Win: Flow Could Steal: The Wild Robot Dark Horse: Memoir of a Snail Should Have Been Nominated: Transformers One Let’s be real: Transformers One didn’t have a shot at a nomination here, despite being one of the six or seven best animated films released last year, mostly due to its being ignored basically everywhere up to that point, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t have been a worthy contender anyway. Personally, I would have swapped Inside Out 2 for it, but the power of Disney and Pixar is so ubiquitous at this point, I’m already predicting Elio to garner a nomination next year. The Wild Robot’s reach is so long I’m not sure Flow's chances are quite enough to overcome DreamWorks’ most popular and beloved animated film in over a decade, but The Friendly Film Fan is a place for hope, so at the risk of an imperfect below-the-line ballot, I'm predicting that as a small upset (plus, it does give the Academy a chance to acknowledge international animation outside of the Shorts categories, which isn't nothing). To be clear, I’d be fine with either of them winning, but the themes in Flow put it a step above for me personally, and I’d love to see that little black cat get some well-deserved love for navigating its complex ideas so beautifully. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR The Nominees:
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown Should Have Been Nominated: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing For a minute, it didn’t seem as though that fifth spot in this category had any concrete candidate. Jonathan Bailey landed the SAG nod, but so did Jeremy Strong, whereas Guy Pearce was the one who missed out for his work in The Brutalist, so which would prevail with the Academy? Then, just before nominations were due to be announced, there was a slight surge in momentum for The Apprentice, bolstered by the increasingly international Academy, and widening the voting field of view yielded slightly different results to come up with a five I was comfortable with, despite knowing that meant Clarence Maclin would get unfairly passed over for his incredible performance in Sing Sing. Personally, I think Pearce or Strong should be walking away with this, but it’s a foregone conclusion after his awards season sweep that Kieran Culkin will bring A Real Pain its only guaranteed award of the night. It’s a terrific performance in an otherwise just pretty great movie, but I just find myself more impressed with the ones I already mentioned (apart from Jonathan Bailey). BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The Nominees:
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez Could Steal: N/A Dark Horse: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown Should Have Been Nominated: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys or Margaret Qualley, The Substance Nominations in Best Supporting Actress weren’t easy to predict. Would the Academy forget about Felicity Jones due to not watching the second half of The Brutalist? Did Isabelle Rossellini have enough impact in her short amount of screen time to stick in voters’ minds? Could Monica Barbaro become to first member of Top Gun: Maverick’s supporting cast to garner a performance Oscar nomination following that film’s release? We all got our answers once the nominees were announced, but it is a shame that at least one or two of those answers came at the expense of both Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor’s soulful work in Nickel Boys and Margaret Qualley’s career-best work in The Substance. Either would have been a worthy contender in this category, but just like with Best Supporting Actor, the awards season clean sweep is sure to culminate in Zoe Saldaña taking home the award for being the only part of Emilia Pérez actually worth any Oscar nominations at all (and we can all still pretend it’s actually for her work as Neytiri in the Avatar films). BEST ACTOR The Nominees:
Will Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist Could Steal: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown Dark Horse: Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice Should Have Been Nominated: N/A While Timothée Chalamet did end up taking home the SAG award for Best Actor for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, voting for the Oscars had already closed by the time that ceremony aired, so his true-to-self, frank speech wouldn’t have won over any voters despite how refreshing it likely was for actors to hear one of their own state that actually, he is trying to be counted among the greats. It’s not impossible that Chalamet is that film’s sole win of the night, especially not with the press run he’s been on lately (one of the all-time great press runs in recent memory for a single performer) and the fact that he’d be the youngest winner ever – breaking the record set by fellow nominee Adrien Brody in 2003 – but this new Academy has been showing us since Olivia Colman’s surprise Best Actress win back in 2019 that it doesn’t necessarily care what precedent or narrative works best, or even whether someone’s won an Oscar already (remember Emma Stone last year?). Brody’s performance is simply undeniable, his best since he won in 2003 for The Pianist, and I find it highly unlikely that the A.I. accent non-troversy actually affected many Academy members who were planning on voting for him anyway. Still, in a toss-up where both candidates end up cancelling each other’s votes, watch out for Sebastian Stan’s banner year to sneak in a major upset here, if there is to be one at all. BEST ACTRESS The Nominees:
Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance Could Steal: Mikey Madison, Anora or Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here Dark Horse: N/A Should Have Been Nominated: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths Not only should Marianne Jean-Baptiste be nominated in this category, she should be in the lead for a win (and if you read our 2025 Friendly Film Fan Awards, you know true justice was done there). Personally, I’d be okay with either Mikey Madison or Demi Moore taking this one, and with her SAG award in hand, it looks like Demi Moore is finally going to get her flowers (though don’t be shocked if Mikey Madison’s BAFTA win comes in handy here). There’s not really a Dark Horse candidate in this race anymore what with the brand-new controversies Karla Sofía Gascón seems to hand the Emilia Pérez PR team every other day, but if Fernanda Torres managed to capture a split-vote decision up the middle to take the stage, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. She is incredible in I’m Still Here, and it would be just as worthy a win as the other two likely candidates. BEST DIRECTOR The Nominees:
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora Could Steal: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist Dark Horse: James Mangold, A Complete Unknown Should Have Been Nominated: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two The Academy has snubbed Denis Villeneuve in Best Director for his Dune films in favor of far less worthy candidates twice. Let’s read that again. The Academy Awards has snubbed Denis Villeneuve in Best Director for his Dune films in favor of far less worthy candidates…TWICE. At this point, I’m expecting them to blank out on nominations for Dune: Messiah altogether. Regardless, Brady Corbet should be winning this award for bringing such an extraordinary vision to life on such a small budget with such an epic scope, and there’s a small chance he still does take the win in a split Director/Picture ceremony, as the Academy has been known to do more than a few times recently. However, with the DGA win having gone to Sean Baker for his direction of Anora, and given his star has finally risen to the mainstream, it seems likely that the Academy will finally “anoint” him with a win here not only for that film but for his body of work up to now, the same way they did Christopher Nolan last year despite his already having major mainstream success beforehand. Still, the real point of this category is that the Academy has snubbed Denis Villeneuve in Best Director for his Dune films in favor of far less worthy candidates…twice. (Also, who did Luca Guadagnino piss off at AMPAS to get both of his films this year and all of his films since Call Me By Your Name completely ignored in every category?) BEST PICTURE The Nominees:
Will Win: Anora Could Steal: The Brutalist or Conclave Dark Horse: A Complete Unknown Should Have Been Nominated: Sing Sing There are more than a few worthy contenders in Best Picture this year, give or take an Emilia Pérez stinking up the whole row, but with its PGA victory well in hand, Anora seems poised to take this win all the way to the finish line. Personally, I would like to see The Brutalist take it, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Conclave slowly crawl its way to a win here, but given Edward Berger was left out of Best Director, without an ensemble award to anchor it, the only way it could achieve success would be to pull a Spotlight, winning only Screenplay and Picture – tough, but not impossible, especially with its recent wins at SAG and BAFTA. The most interesting wins in terms of what Best Picture means to the filmmaking world as a whole and the doors those wins would open would come from a victory for Nickel Boys or The Substance, but the latter is still an unusual thing for the Academy to nominated in the first place, and the former barely squeaked in with only an Adapted Screenplay nomination to its name outside of this field. Even an I’m Still Here win would make for a rather interesting result, as it would indicate that the internationality of the Academy is far stronger than previously thought. All that said, Sing Sing’s absence from this field is a travesty, especially considering more than a few Academy members have outright admitted to simply not having watched it at all. In any just world, it wouldn’t simply be a nominee, it would be a Moonlight-esque nominee with a real shot at taking down the big candidates for a surprise win. Alas, A24 dropped the ball on its release; a summer window may have actually helped it stay in the conversation. And those are our predictions for the 97th Annual Academy Awards! What are you predicting to take home the gold? Anything you’re hoping pulls off an upset? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan  by Jacob Jones If you’ve been following the 2025 Oscar race for any amount of time, you’ve likely heard pundits and critics such as myself decree this season as some form of “unpredictable,” “chaotic,” or “completely up in the air.” Not only have these terms been used to describe the race itself, they’ve also been used to describe – at one point or another – almost every category that race encompasses, from Best Animated Feature to Best Actress in a Leading Role to Best Picture itself. With the Golden Globes offering key support in some surprise areas like Best Actress – for which Fernanda Torres won in the Drama category – as well as handing Best Animated Feature to Janus Films’ Flow and Best Original Score to Challengers, momentum began to shift every which way, ultimately culminating in the Oscar nominations, which included both Torres in Best Actress, as well as multi-category nominee Flow in Best Animated and Best International Feature, though Challengers unfortunately score no nominations itself. The international branch of both the Golden Globes and AMPAS also managed to push Sebastian Stan and Jeremy Strong to nominations for their film The Apprentice, beating out more domestic favorites like Daniel Craig for his role in Queer and SAG nominee Jonathan Bailey, who plays Prince Fiyero in Wicked. Still, even with the Oscar nominations in place, it remained – for a time – entirely unclear who exactly the front-runners were. Would The Brutalist triumph in all expected categories despite its minor AI controversy? Would international behemoth Emilia Pérez survive the eventual onslaught of foot-shooting racism its star and campaign focus tweeted out or spoke aloud without the studio or filmmakers’ prior approval? Was Anora’s lack of an intimacy coordinator as much of a scandal to industry voters as it was to Film Twitter? It seems, for most questions raised by the race to this point, we may finally have some answers (though none have as yet been etched in gold).  PGA, DGA, and WGA The PGA and DGA Awards were held on the same date, February 8, mere miles from one another, both giving their top prizes to Anora, the former for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures and the latter for Best Director of a Feature Film, which was given to Sean Baker. The Producers’ Guild also named The Wild Robot as the Best Produced Animated Feature of the year, and gave its Outstanding Documentary Production win to Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, which also took home the BAFTA for Best Documentary despite not even being shortlisted for the Academy Awards or nominated at the DGAs. The Directors Guild instead put their support behind directors Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev for their Ukraine doc Porcelain War, which follows the experience of artists in the country during the current Russian occupation. RaMell Ross was also awarded Best First-Time Feature Film for his adaptation of Nickel Boys, despite the not his first as a director (he was previously Oscar nominated in 2019 in Best Documentary Feature for his actual directing debut, Hale County This Morning, This Evening). Ross was not amongst the Best Directing nominees for this year’s Oscars, though the film did manage to secure nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture. As to the WGAs (which were held on Feb 15), while there were a great number of disqualified films which did not meet the requirements for a nomination – Emilia Pérez, The Substance, and Conclave among them – the winner selections nonetheless did give yet another boost to Anora in Original Screenplay, though A Real Pain is certainly still in play for the Oscar, and Nickel Boys’ Adapted Screenplay victory is unlikely to triumph with AMPAS over Conclave’s all-but-certain dominance in the category.  BAFTAs, Indie Spirits, and SAG Moving on to slightly less consequential ceremonies (save for one), the BAFTAs and the Indie Spirit Awards both yielded some surprise wins on the whole, seemingly splitting two Oscar narratives – one for Conclave and one for Anora – right down the middle, with each film taking home Best Picture from those awards bodies, respectively. Lead actress Mikey Madison and director Sean Baker also picked up Indie Spirit wins in their respective categories, with Madison’s being a repeat of her win at the BAFTAs. Madison wasn’t the only repeat contender, however, as Jesse Eisenberg managed to snag both a BAFTA and an Indie Spirit win for the Screenplay to his film A Real Pain, giving a major boost to his chances at taking home the Oscar in the Best Original Screenplay category. Of course, Adrien Brody picked up another Best Actor win for his work in The Brutalist, a film for which the BAFTAs awarded Brady Corbet its Best Director prize, though Best Casting went to Anora. Still, a running narrative began to emerge that ultimately culminated at the SAG Awards, which streamed live on Netflix last night: don’t underestimate the power of the papacy. (Or, rather, watch out for Conclave). There were some not entirely unexpected surprises at the SAG Awards, chiefly that Timothée Chalamet became the youngest winner ever for Best Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture, thus placing his stamp firmly on the race against Adrien Brody for the Oscar, and this wasn’t the only confirmation of an honest-to-god race in an ultra-competitive Oscar category. Demi Moore also took home the SAG Award for Best Actress in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture for her work in Coralie Fargeat’s body horror sensation The Substance, putting her neck and neck with Mikey Madison for an Oscar win this coming Sunday. In fact, the only certainties in above-the-line categories for this year’s Oscars come in the form of Supporting sweeps, those being for Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Zoë Saldaña (Emilia Pérez), both of whom have yet to lose a major award for which they were nominated in the lead-up to the big night. And of course, at the evening’s end, Conclave was awarded Best Ensemble Cast in a Motion Picture, essentially the “Best Picture” prize of the SAG Awards, besting Anora (and leaving that film SAG-less, only the third film after Brokeback Mountain and The Hurt Locker to be so after netting PGA, DGA, and WGA wins.) While it seems unlikely that Conclave’s BAFTA/SAG victory has enough steam this late in the race to conquer Anora’s PGA/DGA/WGA-winning conquest for Best Picture at the Oscars, especially with Oscar voting having closed before the SAG Awards took place, the overall unpredictability of this award’s season indicates that there is one cinematic sin we must fear above all others: certainty. The Oscars will air live on ABC and stream on Hulu on Sunday, March 2 at 7:00 p.m. EST.  - The Friendly Film Fan  by Jacob Jones Well, that was pretty crazy, wasn’t it? Of course, what couldn’t be crazy about the 2025 Oscar Nominations? It’s the Oscars; they thrive on crazy! All jokes aside, now that the Academy has finally unveiled their nominees for the Best in Film of 2024, it’s time to break open that pandora’s box and examine all the surprises and disappointments it holds. To start, the absolute disrespect towards Dune: Part Two by AMPAS’ choice to leave it out of Adapted Screenplay, Makeup & Hairstyling, Costume Design, Film Editing, and of course, Director, is an absurdity I will not stand for. The first film was nominated for 10 Oscars, winning 6, but an even better follow-up only gets half that recognition? I mean, I’m aware of what happened with Empire Strikes Back, but I didn’t think this new Academy was doing the same old song and dance by ignoring sci-fi and giving into such blatant recency bias. More to the point, though, Challengers receiving 0 nominations is a genuine outrage, especially in Best Original Score, in which Wicked seemed to take its place (and I can’t even begin to describe how irritating that is from a musical standpoint). Among other disappointments were Clarence Maclin missing Best Supporting Actor despite its unlikelihood, which indicated early that Sing Sing could likely miss Best Picture (thank you A24 for messing the release strategy up so spectacularly), and of course Emilia Pérez running the table with no less than 13 nominations to its name.  The morning was not without its pleasant surprises, however as twenty-one of my wildcard picks – many of them hopefuls – did end up landing nominations in their respective categories, including Nickel Boys in Best Adapted Screenplay, Alien: Romulus is Best Visual Effects, and both Sugarcane and Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat in Best Documentary Feature. Also, as it turns out, I was right to trust my instincts on a few things, namely that the international contingent of the Academy would show strong support for Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (for which Jeremy Strong also received a nomination in Best Supporting Actor), and Flow – which comes to us from Latvia – would ultimately land nominations in both Animated Feature and International Feature. I also correctly predicted that September 5 would receive the fifth spot in the Best Original Screenplay category, and that Edward Lachmann would receive Maria’s lone nomination in Cinematography. By far the morning’s biggest surprise, however, came at the tail end of the announcement when the words “I’m Still Here” were read out amongst the nominees. Having not yet seen the film, I can’t comment on whether this is a pleasant or an unpleasant surprise, but it does re-enforce the one consistent thing about this entire awards season: how chaotic and distinctly inconsistent it has always been. Word to the wise: never underestimate the Brazilians, who not only catapulted I’m Still Here into the Best Picture category, but also secured a Best Actress nomination for Fernanda Torres’ work in the film. She now joins her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, who was previously nominated in the same category for her work in Central Station, which was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film at the 71st Academy Awards. It would seem now that she, and not Mikey Madison as had previously been thought, is the primary challenger to Demi Moore, whose Best Actress nomination for The Substance is just one of that film’s five (including Best Picture and Best Director for Coralie Fargeat). All told, the ups and downs of these awards races are sure going to be a roller-coaster ride all the way to the finish line when the Oscars air live on ABC and stream for the first time on Hulu on March 2nd. A full list of the 2025 Oscar nominees is below. BEST PICTURE The Nominees:
BEST DIRECTOR The Nominees:
BEST ACTRESS The Nominees:
BEST ACTOR The Nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The Nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR The Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Nominees:
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM The Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE The Nominees:
The Nominees:
BEST FILM EDITING The Nominees:
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN The Nominees:
BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Nominees:
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING The Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Nominees:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG The Nominees:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY The Nominees:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Nominees:
BEST SOUND The Nominees:
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT The Nominees:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT The Nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT The Nominees:
What do you think of these nominations? Anything you’re surprised to see or find absent? Any choices that delight you? Enrage you? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading!
- The Friendly Film Fan  by Jacob Jones On Tuesday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) unveiled their shortlists for ten below-the-line categories at the 97th Oscars, revealing which films voters had selected as finalists for a nomination in each. Shortlists are a hallowed tradition for the Academy’s voting body and for awards prognosticators, who use these lists as a means of more accurately predicting what will be competing for those coveted gold statues come January. Wicked and Emilia Pérez were the big winners of the day, taking up 4 and 6 shortlist spots each in a strong bid for both movie musicals from Universal Pictures and Netflix. Though there were no major surprises in most categories, a few inclusions (and exclusions) stood out amongst the rest. Notably, Hans Zimmer’s score for Dune: Part Two was deemed ineligible for competition by AMPAS’ music branch – who determined that it contained too much previously published music to be considered original to the film – but the score for Wicked, which adapts Act One of the iconic Broadway musical for the silver screen, does make an appearance in the Original Score shortlist (which includes 20 shortlisted competitors, the most in any category), leaving awards pundits scratching their heads about how it remains eligible, given that much of the music seems to find its origins in the stage version. Other surprises included Alien: Romulus showing up not only in Visual Effects, but also in Sound and Original Score (two categories it was not expected to be competitive in), as well as the film Waltzing with Brando sneaking into the Makeup & Hairstyling lineup for its transformation of Billy Zane into the titular movie icon. Even the corpse of the ill-fated Joker: Folie à Deux managed to eek out a single nod in Best Sound. On the losing side, the unfortunately underseen Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – George Miller’s follow-up prequel to six-time Oscar winner Mad Max: Fury Road – went entirely ignored, missing key chances to remind Oscar voters and viewers of its potential as an awards contender in the craft categories. Less similarly, though still notably, Alex Garland’s Civil War landed a shortlist spot in Best Visual Effects, but not Best Sound, where most awards pundits had predicted it could appear given that the sound editing in the film is frequently lauded as its greatest accomplishment. The Golden Globe-nominated Miley Cyrus song “Beautiful That Way,” which appears in The Last Showgirl, missed the cut for its designated category as well, in a swift reversal to its new awards season momentum, leaving at least one more chance for Kneecap’s “Sick in the Head” to make a surprise appearance. All in all, however, despite the shortlists’ miscarriages of justice towards George Miller and company, they remain full of strong contenders, any number of whom would be worthy of a nomination come announcement morning. A full list of the 2025 Oscar Shortlists appears below. Best Documentary Feature:
Best Documentary Short:
Best International Feature:
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
Best Original Score:
Best Original Song:
Best Animated Short:
Best Live-Action Short:
Best Sound:
Best Visual Effects:
What do you think of these shortlists? Are there any films you’re surprised made an appearance? Any you’re shocked or disappointed are missing? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading! - The Friendly Film Fan *"Forbidden Road," from Better Man, has been disqualified from Oscar competition. Its inclusion here is reflective of its appearance in the original iteration of these shortlists.
 By Jacob Jones The act of adaptation can be a particularly tricky line to walk; stray too far from the source material one is adapting, and your product is either regarded as a failure by those familiar with such material, or a triumph by those who deemed it too bland to be interesting on its own. On the other hand, stay too faithful to the story being told, and the adaptation becomes traditionally boring, wherein the lack of alterations to a tale whose origins are mediocre at best then reinforce that mediocrity as it appears on screen. The most audacious adaptations – The Godfather, Arrival, No Country for Old Men, Killers of the Flower Moon, etc. – elevate their source material (regardless of how good it already was on its own) to new heights by switching up approaches, changing plot details so as to make them more accessible to a wider range of people, and filtering all of the character details found in book pages through exceptional performances by remarkably skillful actors and masterful direction. But not every adaptation can reach the same heights, and sometimes all one needs for an adaptation to be successful is a faithful approach to quality source material. This is where Conclave comfortably sits.
Based on the book of the same name by Robert Harris, Conclave’s story finds its center in Ralph Fiennes’ Cardinal Lawrence, who – in the wake of the Pope’s unfortunate death – is charged with running a new Conclave in which all eligible Cardinals will vote to select the Holy Father’s successor. Once one Cardinal receives a two-thirds majority of the vote, that person will become the new Pope, and the face of universal church. Sometimes these elections can take mere hours; sometimes they take days, and with no less than three front-runners making plays for the throne, anything can happen. With the world and the church’s place in it on the brink of total collapse, it is imperative that the Conclave swiftly and decisively select the right representative, both for God, and for the millions of faithful around the globe. This film also stars Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini. How films like Conclave land for someone is all about the approach to watching it. If you go in blind, you’re likely to have a greater reaction to its myriad of plot turns and twists, but you’re also less likely to forgive how the film essentially skips getting to know its characters on a personal level, apart from their individual interactions with Cardinal Lawrence, whom the film is content to have the audience become familiar with through Ralph Fiennes’ layered, deeply understated performance. Having finished Harris’ book mere hours before seeing the film for the first time, I was able to pinpoint in Fiennes’ eyes where all of the character’s internal thoughts came through in the story as outlined in the original text, but for those who haven’t read it, I would imagine that this is a difficult element to understand without any sort of clue given by the film itself. Fiennes is such a skilled actor that in order to play this part right, it requires an almost anti-theatricality, and he nails every beat perfectly, if one knows where to look for them. The same could be applied to both John Lithgow and Stanley Tucci’s characters as well, although we do get to know them more thoroughly through conversations, whereas with Lawrence, the audience is left to simply accept whatever it is about him they can glean from his subtler demeanor. As for Rossellini, while she does feature in one terrific scene towards the third act of the film, the rest of her performance is largely hidden by the needs of the plot, relegating her to more of a background character than a genuine supporting player most of the time. To assuage any doubts that may have arisen: Conclave is a good movie. It’s well-mounted, the no-frills approach to adapting the book works, and all of the performances are played at exactly the right pitch for the story being told. While some of its production elements can feel a tad formulaic at times, they serve their respective purposes in making the story feel coherent, dramatic, and occasionally quite funny, and there are moments of genuine greatness among them, particularly in the cinematography and the costume designs. But herein lies my question: is Conclave a good movie only because the book it’s based on is a good story? Berger’s approach to viewing the Conclave less like the most important thing that could ever occur in a religious sector of the world and more like an overly gossipy workplace meeting that we seem to be in on imbues the film with a sense of fun it may otherwise have lacked, but given its near one-to-one translation from the source material, how much of that credit can be truly given to Berger, and how much goes to Harris’ original text? For me, most of it goes to Harris. Berger is a skilled filmmaker, as evidence by Netflix’s adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front in 2022, but if one is going to adapt books as famous as those Berger has helmed thus far, every production element needs to be firing on all cylinders in order to elevate the director above the material he chooses. As it stands, Conclave is the sort of movie I wish we had twenty of every year. A gripping mystery, told by skilled filmmakers, with some of the best performers in the world chewing the scenery as though they’d not eaten since their last screen test. Even without the level of craftsmanship it would need to be truly competitive in most awards categories (and with one book scene missing that I feel would have elevated it beyond just being very good), it’s a delightfully fun time at the movies, and it’s nice to see that the mid-budget thriller driven by dialogue and character, rather than spectacle, is making a handsome comeback. I’m giving “Conclave” a 7.8/10 - The Friendly Film Fan |