Final 2024 Oscar Predictions

The Friendly Film Fan Selects What Will and What Should Win at the 96th Academy Awards

​Well, folks, that time has finally arrived, as the Oscars are nearly upon us. After a long and winding road through strikes, delays, and production setbacks, the awards season is due to come to an end (which wouldn’t be so exhausting if the Academy would just move the Oscars back to February, but that’s another piece). As of tomorrow, the Academy will have unveiled what they voted on as the best of the best in movies in 2023, so this is the last chance we’ve got at predicting what exactly their tastes line up to be. Of course, we have our own picks in each category, whether it’s something we believe should be taking home the gold or something that should have been nominated in the first place, as well as Dark Horse candidates not enough people are worrying about and secondary guesses in more competitive races. It all comes to a head tonight, so once more, here are our predictions for the winners at the 96th Annual Academy Awards!

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Nominees:

• The ABCs of Book Banning
• The Barber of Little Rock
• Island in Between
• The Last Repair Shop
• Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Should Win: The Last Repair Shop or Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Could Steal: Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Dark Horse: Island in Between
Should Have Been Nominated: Last Song from Kabul
 
It’s a strange thing to have the only non-publicly-screened category in the Oscar Shorts races be the most accessible of all three, and yet for Best Documentary Short, we were able to see all but two of fifteen shortlisted films (the missing two being Bear and Wings of Dust). To that end, we feel as if we’ve got a pretty good handle on this category, which makes it a bit disappointing that what is easily the weakest of the shorts – The ABCs of Book Banning – is most likely to take home the award at the end of the night. In a just world, The Last Repair Shop would walk away with this in a landslide, but we could also see an argument for the thoroughly charming Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó as well. In any case, many of the doc shorts this year were quite good, and the ones that weren’t…mostly didn’t make it this far anyway.

​BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Nominees:

• Letter to a Pig
• Ninety-Five Senses
• Our Uniform
• Pachyderme
• War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Should Win: N/A
Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Could Steal: Ninety-Five Senses
Dark Horse: Our Uniform
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
As we have been unable to find or view Our Uniform and War Is Over!, we are abstaining from picking a “Should Win” in this category, but in all likelihood, the win will go to the latter of these two shorts. There is a small chance that the widely-supported Ninety-Five Senses could swoop in for the win, but it seems unlikely this late in the race. Watch out for Our Uniform, though. While we were not able to view it in its entirety, the style of animation present in the trailers for it display world-class creativity in the medium, and could appeal to voters who like their animation a little more unconventionally rendered.

​BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The Nominees:

• The After
• Invincible
• Knight of Fortune
• Red, White and Blue
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Should Win: Invincible
Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Could Steal: Red, White and Blue
Dark Horse: Knight of Fortune
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
The second of the two shorts categories we were able to actually watch all the nominees for, Best Live-Action Short is stacked with really interesting and fun work (with one notable exception). The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar has everything it needs to win the night, including the invitation to give an Oscar to the great Wes Anderson, who has bafflingly remained winless to this point. That said, we would really like this one to go to Invincible, a wonderfully-told and poignant story paying touching tribute to a life lost too soon. If anything is likely to steal Henry Sugar’s thunder, however, it would seem to be abortion drama Red, White and Blue, which is very well-told, but perhaps a bit too theme-forward in the narrative. Knight of Fortune, a surprisingly funny and touching story of a man mourning his deceased wife, could burst through in a split vote between the prior two films, but as with Ninety-Five Senses in the previous category, it seems – at best – unlikely. If by some curse The After wins, we should all answer to God; it is by far the worst in the category, and its nomination here is baffling.

​BEST SOUND
The Nominees:

• The Creator
• Maestro
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
• Oppenheimer
• The Zone of Interest

Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Could Steal: Oppenheimer
Dark Horse: Maestro
Should Have Been Nominated: The Killer
 
There are one or two “no guts, no glory” predictions – what we call “hope-dictions” we’re going to make this year, the first of which is in Best Sound. While it is entirely possible that Oppenheimer runs the table in nearly every nominated category, Best Sound is one we think should and ultimately will go to Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, a film in which the sound design is not only the best in the category, but the topic of conversation surrounding the film’s overall quality. You can’t talk to someone who’s seen Zone of Interest without the sound design coming up as the thing that most strikes the viewer. That said, Oppenheimer’s sound is almost just as excellent, and it’s likely to win many of the night’s below-the-line races; this could just be one of them. While the rest of the nominees also have good to great sound design (The Creator in particular has excellent sound – think of the bridge scene), it would have been nice to see The Killer nominated in the category.

​BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Nominees:

• The Creator
• Godzilla Minus One
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
• Napoleon

Should Win: The Creator
Will Win: The Creator
Could Steal: Godzilla Minus One
Dark Horse: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Should Have Been Nominated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
 
This is a two-horse race if ever there was one. While many believe that Godzilla Minus One’s enormous popularity may sway most international voters (of which the Academy has added many in recent years) towards the side of the atomic lizard, The Creator has not missed a visual effects award to date, and is widely viewed by the VFX industry as revolutionary to the practice. For our money, we do think that the Academy may ultimately decide the nomination itself is enough for Minus One’s representation and instead reward The Creator in this category. Even with all of that, however, it’s a shame that the exemplary work on display in Across the Spider-Verse couldn’t break the stigma of the effects being part of an animated film.

​BEST ORIGNAL SCREENPLAY
The Nominees:

• Arthur Harari and Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
• David Hemingson, The Holdovers
• Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
• Samy Burch, May December
• Celine Song, Past Lives

Should Win: Arthur Harari and Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall or Samy Burch, May December or Celine Song, Past Lives
Will Win: Arthur Harari and Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
This seemed like The Holdovers’ award to take for a while, even while Past Lives fans (including myself) tend to posit that that screenplay is far superior. However, momentum – and not undeserved momentum at that – has seemed to swing the way of Justine Triet for her and Arthur Harari’s ace screenwriting in the excellent Anatomy of a Fall, which would be a worthy win in any year. If there were another film – apart from Past Lives – that we felt deserved more recognition, it’s May December, the screenplay for which is exceptionally witty, insightful, and biting in its more satirical elements. Frankly, May December should have been nominated in far more categories…but we’ll get to that.

​BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Nominees:

• Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
• Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
• Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
• Tony McNamara, Poor Things
• Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Will Win: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Could Steal: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Dark Horse: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Should Have Been Nominated: Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
 
While it is a bummer that Killers of the Flower Moon was snubbed in this category – especially as it is a genuine feat of adaptation from its more true-crime style source material – the category itself remains exceptionally strong. The most likely winner looks to be Cord Jefferson for his debut feature, American Fiction, which would be a good win, even if we didn’t personally think some elements beyond the script ultimately landed the way the film clearly wanted them to. What we’d ultimately prefer to see, however, is a win for Christopher Nolan in this category; Oppenheimer’s screenplay – written by Nolan in the first person – is so clear regarding everything the audience and the characters are meant to be experiencing in such a tightly-wound piece that one could call it miraculous the whole thing doesn’t come off as one convoluted mess. That’s deserving of recognition, even if Barbie somewhat pulls off the same trick to a lesser extent.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Nominees:

• “The Fire Inside,” Flamin’ Hot
• “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
• “It Never Went Away,” American Symphony
• “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon
• “What Was I Made For?,” Barbie

Should Win: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
Will Win: “What Was I Made For?,” Barbie
Could Steal: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
Dark Horse: “It Never Went Away,” American Symphony
Should Have Been Nominated/Shortlisted: “Camp Isn’t Home,” Theater Camp
 
If this category is to continue at the Academy Awards, they’ll need to do more than just hand Diane Warren a nomination every year for an either actively bad or at least not very good movie. While I didn’t predict “It Never Went Away” being nominated (even though I really should have; I mean, c’mon, Jon Batiste’s name is right there), the presence of “The Fire Inside” in this category felt inevitable in a way that takes the fun out of what else could go here. The obvious conclusion is that one of the two Barbie songs nominated will ultimately end up winning, and either way, they’ll be worthy wins…but it should go to I’m Just Ken. The real bummer here is that the incredibly creative work on display in Theater Camp didn’t even have a shot, as none of the songs were shortlisted for the category. Still, the inclusion of “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” is inspired.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Nominees:

• Laura Karpman, American Fiction
• John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
• Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
• Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things

Should Win: Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
Will Win: Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Laura Karpman, American Fiction
Should Have Been Nominated: Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
 
We’ve already written and spoken at length about the heinous snub of Daniel Pemberton’s score for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse here, so we won’t belabor that point except to say that we have listened to all five scores, and while the first two listed in the category work well enough for their own purposes (American Fiction in particular is fairly underrated as 2023’s scores go), we’re still not sure we would have included them here over things like the aforementioned Spider-Verse or composer Joe Hisaishi’s soulful melodies for one of our other favorite animated works last year, The Boy and the Heron. All that said, as with many categories, this has been Oppenheimer’s award from the jump, as Ludwig Göransson catapults himself into the upper echelon any and all film composers working today. Of course, we love the late Robbie Robertson’s wonderful compositions for Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things’ score feels as eclectic and off-kilter as the movie itself, but there’s a power behind Oppenheimer’s score that feels simply undeniable. It’s simultaneously new yet classical, always tense yet also filled with a knowing dread. There’s nothing else like it this year and there’s unlikely to be anything else like it in the years to come. It will be a well-deserved second win for Göransson (he previously won this category for Black Panther in 2018).

​BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Nominees:

• Golda
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things
• Society of the Snow

Should Win: Poor Things
Will Win: Maestro
Could Steal: Poor Things
Dark Horse: Society of the Snow
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
One of the more tenuous categories of the evening, Best Makeup & Hairstyling seems to be poised for a one-time-only win in Maestro’s favor, but it’s not as clear a victory as some may have you believe. Poor Things, too, boasts some excellent prosthetic work and late-breaking Netflix survival hit Society of the Snow does a lot with its makeup to convey just how brutal the conditions of the Uruguayan football team become after so long on the mountain. Our one brag here – as much of a brag as it can be for such a middle-of-the-road movie – is that we actually saw Golda in theaters, so we knew it was likely going to be appearing here.

​BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Nominees:

• Jacqueline Durran, Barbie
• Jacqueline West, Killers of the Flower Moon
• David Crossman and Janty Yates, Napoleon
• Ellen Mirojnick, Oppenheimer
• Holly Waddington, Poor Things

Should Win: Holly Waddington, Poor Things
Will Win: Jacqueline Durran, Barbie
Could Steal: Holly Waddington, Poor Things
Dark Horse: David Crossman and Janty Yates, Napoleon
Should Have Been Nominated: Stacey Battat, Priscilla
 
The next two categories are a two-horse race between the same two films. Both Barbie and Poor Things boast excellent design work in virtually every department, and their near-equal proximity to a win in either race makes it fairly likely they could split votes here, with Costume Design going to Barbie for Jacqueline Durran’s perfect recreations of all the titular doll’s iconic outfits. If one keeps in mind that Little Women’s costume design (also by Jacqueline Durran) was so strong it managed to still pull off that film’s only Oscar win, the notion of Barbie taking this seems much more likely.

​BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Nominees:

• Sarah Greenwood, Barbie
• Jack Fisk, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Arthur Max, Napoleon
• Ruth de Jong, Oppenheimer
• Shona Heath and James Price, Poor Things

Should Win: Shona Heath and James Price, Poor Things
Will Win: Shona Heath and James Price, Poor Things
Could Steal: Sarah Greenwood, Barbie
Dark Horse: Arthur Max, Napoleon
Should Have Been Nominated: Adam Stockhausen, Asteroid City or Chris Oddy, The Zone of Interest
 
Going the other way in the Barbie vs. Poor Things double-header, we’re fairly confident that the split vote will ultimately result in Poor Things taking the award designated for more overall design work. The sets and environments created by Shona Heath and James Price in Poor Things feel not only like the best way to fully realize the world set by the novel, but somehow the only possible way it ever could have looked. While Barbie’s production design is excellent – especially in its imagination of Barbieland – it doesn’t quite give off the same feeing, especially as it does have at least some previously realized visual material to pull from. The real question, however, is this: how the hell does Asteroid City not even land in this category? Regardless of how one feels about the film, it is impeccably designed and staged. Oh well, at least Wes Anderson will likely still have an Oscar at the end of the night.

​BEST FILM EDITING
The Nominees:

• Laurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall
• Kevin Tent, The Holdovers
• Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer
• Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Poor Things

Should Win: Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
Will Win: Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Laurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall
Should Have Been Nominated: Affonso Gonçalves, May December
 
Film Editing is, in many ways, the key art form to master in filmmaking. One has to know not only where to cut but what to cut, and to take it a step further, what not to. Taking various pieces of footage and fitting them all together so that your film not only feels engaging from moment to moment but exciting to watch, and most of all properly paced, is a task that requires herculean amounts of skill, and not one nominee here is lacking in that skill. Oppenheimer is – you guessed it – the obvious choice here, as Jennifer Lame’s lightning-fast edit transports the viewer across multiple perspectives and eras in the life of its protagonist without missing a step or becoming convoluted along the way. For our part, though, we would give this to Thelma Schoonmaker for her god-like edit of Killers of the Flower Moon, which prioritizes pacing over speed, and as such lends the epic and tragic tale of the Osage murders a greater weight for all the time we spend with it. Since the 70s, Schoonmaker has cemented herself as perhaps the greatest film editor of all time – certainly one of them at least – and the Academy is fast running out of chances to recognize her mastery. 

​BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Nominees:

• Edward Lachman, El Conde
• Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Matthew Libatique, Maestro
• Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer
• Robbie Ryan, Poor Things

Should Win: Robbie Ryan, Poor Things
Will Win: Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated: Dan Laustsen, John Wick: Chapter 4 or Linus Sandgren, Saltburn or Łukasz Żal, The Zone of Interest
 
The only film on this list we did not get to see was El Conde, and shame on us for missing it, as the film came out all the way back in September on Netflix, and yet, every time we sat down to watch it, something else would pull our attentions away. Of the four we did see though, Poor Things’ cinematography felt not only the most innovative, but the most appropriate to the tone of the film. The lensing is not only inspired, but purposeful, and often gives the film a feeling of unparalleled uniqueness – there’s just nothing else like it. However, this is yet another award that Oppenheimer is most likely to take, and once again, it is not an undeserved win. Hoyte van Hoytema is one of the great living cinematographers, quickly becoming a household name amongst cinephiles after Dunkirk, Tenet, and Nope (for which he should have been nominated this past year) alongside Emmanuel Lubezki and Roger Deakins, and to see him finally win one is sure to be a treat.

​BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Nominees:

• Bobi Wine: The People’s President
• The Eternal Memory
• Four Daughters
• To Kill a Tiger
• 20 Days in Mariupol

Should Win: N/A
Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Could Steal: Four Daughters
Dark Horse: Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Should Have Been Nominated: Beyond Utopia
 
The Best Documentary category is always the most difficult branch to predict in terms of what they will choose to nominate for the Oscars, and if this year is any indication, that’s unlikely to change any time soon. The absence of heavy contenders like American Symphony and Beyond Utopia (particularly the former) makes this category more difficult to understand but also easier to predict a winner for, as the intense and terrifying 20 Days in Mariupol – which chronicles Russia’s beginning invasion of the titular Ukrainian city – now has nothing really standing in its way as it marches towards a near-certain win. As we haven’t seen enough of the films in this category to warrant choosing a “Should Win,” we won’t be doing that here, but we will contend that if 20 Days has any competition at all, it would be in the wildly innovative Four Daughters, whose approaches to both its filmmaking and subject matter are so creative it would be a cinch if not for 20 Days’ feeling of urgency.

​BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
The Nominees:

• Io Capitano (Italy)
• Perfect Days (Japan)
• Society of the Snow (Spain)
• The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
• The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Should Win: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Will Win: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
Should Have Been Nominated/Submitted: Anatomy of a Fall (France)
 
Well, the Best International Feature category has once more bitten France in the ass because they chose the wrong film to submit for the Oscars. Don’t get us wrong, The Taste of Things is an absolutely lovely, excellent, and romantic work of glorious quiet and subtlety, but to submit it for the Oscars over Anatomy of a Fall – which not only won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival but just came off of a whopping six César Award wins – seemed foolish even when awards season wasn’t yet in full swing. That said, there’s no way this award doesn’t go to the only film also nominated in Best Picture, Jonathan Glazer’s searing portrait of an SS Officer and his family’s “quiet” life in The Zone of Interest, which landed at #2 on our Top 10 Best Movies of 2023 list.

​BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees:

• The Boy and the Heron
• Elemental
• Nimona
• Robot Dreams
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Could Steal: The Boy and the Heron
Dark Horse: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated: Suzume
Firstly, while we have been thus far unable to see Robot Dreams, so has most everyone else, as Neon has decided not to release the film until May of this year, in a move which has riled up some controversy due to the release date’s long proximity from the awards race itself. Regardless, this can go one of two ways. Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron could come out on top, but we think it’s just a little more likely that Annie and PGA winner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will ultimately take the victory, and according to us, it should. We’ve spoken time and time again about how there’s simply no other team doing animation at this scale right now, bringing things to life audiences would never have though of even based on the previous film’s innovations (Into the Spider-Verse also won this category a few years ago), and if Daniel Pemberton’s score is to fall by the wayside in terms of nominations, the least the Academy can do is hand this film one win.

​BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees:

• Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
• Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
• Ryan Gosling, Barbie
• Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Should Win: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Could Steal: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Dark Horse: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Should Have Been Nominated: Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers or Charles Melton, May December
 
We’re up to the big five now. Best Supporting Actor seemed like it could go a few different ways before awards season began, but with the absence of Charles Melton’s uncanny performance in May December – a performance that, frankly, should have been a front-runner in this category, all signs point to Robert Downey Jr. finally landing the plane to take home an Oscar all his own. Some have speculated that Ryan Gosling could steal the show here, and many underestimated the Academy’s love for Sterling K. Brown, but RDJ hasn’t lost this race even once leading into the night, so any name being called except his – which is the strongest of the Supporting Actor performances, to be sure – would be a genuine upset. (We really need to talk about how good Robert De Niro is in Killers of the Flower Moon, though. It’s one of his best performances in years and we’d be fools to let it fall by the wayside.)

​BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees:

• Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
• Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
• America Ferrera, Barbie
• Jodie Foster, Nyad
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: Jodie Foster, Nyad
Should Have Been Nominated: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret and/or Julianne Moore, May December
 
Another category all wrapped up in a neat little bow, Da’Vine Joy Randolph is likely to be the sole win for Alexander Payne’s newly-minted Christmas classic, The Holdovers, and she is - without question – our “Should Win” for this category as well. Randolph has been one of our “to watch” stars ever since her dynamically fun turn in Dolemite is My Name, and to see her finally get the spotlight she deserves is really something special. There’s no chance anyone steals this award from her, although it would have been nice to see some love thrown the way of Rachel McAdams for her performance in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. or even to Julianne Moore for hers in May December. Personally speaking, while we do love America Ferrera and her performance in Barbie is one that walks the delicate line well, we would have no problem swapping her out for either one of them.

​BEST ACTOR
The Nominees:

• Bradley Cooper, Maestro
• Colman Domingo, Rustin
• Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
• Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
• Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Should Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Could Steal: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Dark Horse: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Should Have Been Nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon or Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
 
As far as nominations are concerned, Best Actor metastasized much quicker than the other acting categories, as the five present here felt inevitable once awards season began. The only real question was whether or not the Academy was going to go for Jeffrey Wright over Leonardo DiCaprio, and given all the love for American Fiction, things seemed to be going that way anyway (although if we had our way, we’d probably have them swapped out). Colman Domingo’s nomination was always going to happen, as he landed at every major precursor on the docket prior to his nomination here, and while his performance is quite good, the film is more comfortable playing everything else as safe as it could be, which indicates to us that his time is still to come (get ready for Sing Sing next year, folks; we’re hearing it’s a big one). This, really, is a two-horse race between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti, and as much as we’d like to see Giamatti with an Oscar in one hand and an In-N-Out burger in the other, Cillian Murphy’s victory – reflected by his SAG win most recently – feels like the inevitable crowning moment of the actor’s 20-year working relationship with Christopher Nolan. If you’re going for the safe bet, put money of Murphy.

​BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees:

• Annette Benning, Nyad
• Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
• Carey Mulligan, Maestro
• Emma Stone, Poor Things

Should Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon or Emma Stone, Poor Things
Will Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Could Steal: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Dark Horse: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Should Have Been Nominated: Greta Lee, Past Lives or Margot Robbie, Barbie
 
There’s one glaring issue we have with Best Actress, and as we’re sure you’ve guessed by now, it’s the inclusion of Annette Benning’s frankly subpar work in the decent-but-plain-toast Nyad, which somehow won the nomination over Margot Robbie’s endlessly fun turn in Barbie or, in the case of what we would have chosen in that spot, Greta Lee’s thoroughly moving performance in Past Lives. Yet another two-horse race wherein the SAG awards may have dictated the ultimate winner, we’re predicting a Lily Gladstone victory here, which would make her the first-ever Native American woman to win this category, and it would be a well-deserved win, regardless of whether one believes she should in the supporting categories or not. Her toughest competition comes in the form of Emma Stone’s greatest singular performance to date as Bella Baxter in Poor Things, which is saying something when one considers that she’s only gotten better since her first Oscar win for La La Land all the way back in 2016. Stone continually chooses to challenge herself with every new part; if she manages to eek out a second win within 10 years, we may have to consider her amongst the likes of the greatest to ever do it. (In the unlikely event of a split vote, watch out for Sandra Hüller, though.)

​BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees:

• Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
• Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
• Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
• Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Should Win: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated: N/A
 
We might as well have titled this the Christopher Nolan award, as the filmmaking juggernaut is finally poised to have an Oscar in hand after nearly a decade of some of the most exemplary filmmaking the business has ever had to offer. From The Dark Night to Inception to Dunkirk, Nolan’s direction has been snubbed time and time again by the Academy, and at last, his victory is assured, a deserved victory if ever there was one. For our part, however, we do believe that the most deserving nominee is Jonathan Glazer for just how delicate and dark a line The Zone of Interest is able to walk without ever feeling like anything less than an indictment of how easily people are able to deliberately ignore genocides happening right before their very eyes, even participating in them to the degree that their own comfort is unthreatened. Yes, it would be nice to see Scorsese take home a victory here as well for what we feel is the best work of his late-late period filmmaking career, but Glazer’s direction is the thing upon which the success of The Zone of Interest rests, even if it’s not the singular element everyone who sees the film talks about the most.

BEST PICTURE
The Nominees:

• American Fiction
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Barbie
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Past Lives
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives or The Zone of Interest
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Steal: N/A
Dark Horse: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated: May December or Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
 
Although any of the four films we’ve selected as “Should Win” would be more than worthy, this award has had Oppenheimer’s name on it since awards season began, and its PGA victory, as well as its Best Ensemble award win at SAG and Best Picture wins at nearly every non-critics-based awards show point to an inevitable and resounding victory for what many consider Christopher Nolan’s magnum opus. The case for it winning is strong as well, as the three-hour biopic shot partially in black-and-white about one of history’s most controversial and legendary historical figures made nearly $1 billion at the U.S. box office alone, becoming one of the year’s most widely seen and greatly beloved films; that’s something the Oscars are designed to celebrate, even more than highlighting other great work that may not otherwise be widely seen in the first place; an Oppenheimer win wouldn’t just be a win for the film, but for the Oscars as well (even if we do think Killers of the Flower Moon or The Zone of Interest may ultimately be more inspired choices on the whole).

And those are our picks for what Should and what Will Win at the 96th Annual Academy Awards! What do you think of these predictions? Any surprises you’re making bold bets on? Let us know in the comments section below, and thanks for reading!
 
- The Friendly Film Fan